Let the bidding begin...Alys Beach

Does Camp Creek Kid care to clue us in to the latest and greatest on Alys Beach?

SJ, I have been busy living my life and have not been worrying about Alys Beach. I do not claim to be an expert on Alys Beach and my defense of the development was a defense of the individuals involved with Alys Beach, some of whom I know personally. I think it is a beatiful development and it it will be a wonderful place to live someday.

Alys Beach has always planned to offer some of their properties by sealed bid. They have also sold many properties/homes through presales. I have friends who were offered a homesite, but declined because they had already bought elsewhere.

Alys Beach's weakness may be in how slowly they are progressing in home construction and development. Many investors may have lost interest. We wanted to live their full-time, but have decided that we're tired of being full-time residents in a vacation community with renters. We're making other plans. I know others who planned to live there full-time, but have changed their minds for various reasons. Some don't want to wait 2-3 years for architecture and construction, others don't want to be so close to their neighbors. A few were tired with the wait to be offered a property.

If you don't like Alys Beach, stay away. But I bet everyone has something better to do with their time than speculate and criticize.

along for the ride--

I think your comments are wise. The prices are sky high in Alys and they seem to be having a bit of trouble with the first round of sealed bids. Like you, I think the prices will be lower in the future.

I'd be interested to hear from some of the people that received bid info on what types of properties and how many.

What I've read is that most property that has been released was sold awhile ago and that only a limited number of "special" properties were under sealed bid.

Whatever the case, IMHO they will not have any trouble finding ready willing, and able buyers - but maybe not quite as quickly as 3 years ago.
The little bit of pricing info I've heard is not out of line with the other NUB towns.

The package I received had 9 lots.

6 lots were in phase 1A (north of 30A) with prices ranging from $785,000 to $1,700,000. Construction commencement ranged from 18 months on the $785K lot to 36 months. Property types included Courtyard, Compound and Villa.

3 lots were in phase 2B (south of 30A) and ranged from $1,400,000 to $1,725,000 with constuction commencement dates of 24 months. Property types were all Courtyard homes.

All had a build-out requirement of 18 months from the commencement date.

The package I received had 9 lots.

6 lots were in phase 1A (north of 30A) with prices ranging from $785,000 to $1,700,000. Construction commencement ranged from 18 months on the $785K lot to 36 months. Property types included Courtyard, Compound and Villa.

3 lots were in phase 2B (south of 30A) and ranged from $1,400,000 to $1,725,000 with constuction commencement dates of 24 months. Property types were all Courtyard homes.

All had a build-out requirement of 18 months from the commencement date.

Is there anyone that really believes those values won't double soon enough?

Double in price :floor: maybe cut in half.

Educate me, Skier, perhaps you know. Has there ever been a coastal economy that has decreased in value as drastically as you seem to think SoWal will? Seems completely unrealistic to me, but i don't claim to know. SoWal has inherent permanent value in its natural amenities, (coastal lakes, bays, blue wave beaches and numerous state parks); It's manmade amenities appeal greatly to an upscale crowd, (height limits, great dining, golf, activities, pristine communities.) Plus, it has not reached the price point that other upscle coastal communites in Florida have yet. On top of that, SoWal has equivalent or better beaches. Add to this the fact SoWal is a driving destination--an important aspect to those who will use the area as their second/vacation home, and permanent residents who want their families to be able to visit frequently. Add to this the "bubble" of aging boomers who are beginning to look for areas such as this.

Put that all together and you have a solid future outlook, in my opinion. A small adjustment here and there? sure. But any real decrease in value seems like it would be followed immediately by another wave of investors.

I could be very wrong. But I'd have to be shown some pretty solid facts to come off this opinion. Too many inherent points of value in SoWal, imho.

Educate me, Skier, perhaps you know. Has there ever been a coastal economy that has decreased in value as drastically as you seem to think SoWal will? Seems completely unrealistic to me, but i don't claim to know. SoWal has inherent permanent value in its natural amenities, (coastal lakes, bays, blue wave beaches and numerous state parks); It's manmade amenities appeal greatly to an upscale crowd, (height limits, great dining, golf, activities, pristine communities.) Plus, it has not reached the price point that other upscle coastal communites in Florida have yet. On top of that, SoWal has equivalent or better beaches. Add to this the fact SoWal is a driving destination--an important aspect to those who will use the area as their second/vacation home, and permanent residents who want their families to be able to visit frequently. Add to this the "bubble" of aging boomers who are beginning to look for areas such as this.

Put that all together and you have a solid future outlook, in my opinion. A small adjustment here and there? sure. But any real decrease in value seems like it would be followed immediately by another wave of investors.

I could be very wrong. But I'd have to be shown some pretty solid facts to come off this opinion. Too many inherent points of value in SoWal, imho.

On top of being a female guitarist in a band, Katmoo also sounds intelligent. :clap_1:

On top of being a female guitarist in a band, Katmoo also sounds intelligent. :clap_1:

Like Katmoo, I think Skier is off-base. Predicting that property anywhere will drop to half of the current value is just speculation without any merit. Do I think we can sustain the growth patterns of the last year or two - no, of course not. I think we'll see a sustained growth of >10% and upwards of 20%. Here's why I think the market will continue to rise :

1. 75 million baby boomers, and less than half have reached retirement age.
2. The current creative financial instruments will continue (interest only, high LTV on 2nd homes).
3. Short term, the weak dollar - I'm in Rosemary and two of my close neighbors bought from oustide the country. I see this trend continuing.
4. As Katmoo mentioned, if you think our prices are high - check out other coastal areas.


My 2 cents...

I believe it was GVM that came over from Hilton Head a few years ago because of the price differential. I'd be curious to know what prices are like there now compared to SoWal.

And Some other resorts like Sea Island, Marco, etc.
And Donna is over on the left coast - maybe she can give us some comparisons to coastal areas over there.

Another reason property values may not drop significantly is people will still buy high-end properties with inheritance money. Many baby boomers will inherit money from their parents soon for those that haven't already (and some of these parents will have been pretty well off, though certainly not all of them). Many of those people who inherit will already have their primary home probably paid for if they're in their fifties or sixties, and will probably have retirement money saved up as well So, the inheritance may go to their vacation home. I'm sure the inheritance income potential hasn't gone past St. Joe's...

Oh well, I guess you guys have finally convinced me. Phillip must be right about the continued 20% growth per year (down from the 50% plus recently). So, that means I can double my money every 4 years. Cool. I just went out and borrowed all I could against my primary residence and my second home in Florida with an interest only loan based on LIBOR that will adjust every month. I'll come down tomorrow and buy a place in Seaside, Watercolor and Rosemary. I can't lose. :clap_1: :blink: :shock: :( :idontno: 😱

I would reconsider if I were you. You sound pretty overextended already. 😱

Actually, add "safety" to the values of Walton county. This is my first extended time here and it continually amazes me. Like, people don't lock their bikes! Imagine that.