Is the Real Estate Market Changing? Good Question. From my daily observation, I noticed from about Feb thru May, I was seeing about 70 new listings each day in Walton Co. This wasn't an average number, but I was litterally seeing about 68-75 new listings everyday. (interesting how the number was so close each day) Much inventory built up. Some properties had listing agreements extended, some people allowed their listings to expire. The net number of properties continued to rise.
Since the beginning of June, I have noticed the number of daily new listings has decreased to about 50 per day. Talking with many Realtors, I understand that most of them are now getting more serious about their listings. They are not accepting any price from the seller. They realize that these overpriced listings are costing the agents money in advertising, when they know they won't sell. I think we are beginning to see some changes of the inventory, in part, due to the listing agents.
I talk to many sellers who tell me that they do not have to sell and are not flexible on price. Some of these "sellers" are receiving low ball offers and they call them "insulting." (I call it an offer.) Bottom line is that the majority of listings are are attached to unmotivated sellers. They just put up a sign and don't see themselves as doing any harm to the R.E. Market in the area.
I think in the immediate future, we will see more Realtors getting closer to realistic prices on listings. In the past, Realtors could put ridiculus, unjustified prices on a listing, and it would sell. The buyers have caused this crazy market, not the sellers nor the Realtors. Today, Realtors must educate their sellers on this market and the basics of Economics 101. I think we will see many of the over-priced listings expire in the future, and not get picked up by another agent, unless it is at a realistic listing price.
In my opinion, at least 85% of today's listings are overpriced. If these listings belong to unmotivated sellers, and they pull them off the market, inventory would decrease so much that we would see sales, and the market will be set. Imagine if the 2500 ish lots for sale in Walton Co decreased to the realistically priced listings totalling only about 375 in number. :scratch: Right now, no buyers seem to know what price is real. Illiminate the unmotivated sellers, and you will see the real price for properties.
Just my $.02 😀
Feed back???
Smiling JOeSmiling JOeSoWal Expert31,643 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Expert
Smiling JOeSoWal Expert31,643 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Expert5,393 views
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BobBobSoWal InsiderO'Wal10,368 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
BobSoWal InsiderO'Wal10,368 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal InsiderI'd use the one that was the predetermined target number I paid the appraiser to hit?If you use an appraisal that will not stand lender review, you are wasting your time and money.
SHELLYSHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
SHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal InsiderDo you have firsthand knowledge of this? Please give us examples of blackballing and collusion.
Mortgage Fraud Huge in Florida FBI Report Says
The Federal Bureau of Investigation's recent Financial Crimes Report states that mortgage fraud is a "pervasive and growing" problem in the current market climate, especially in the Sunshine State. In fact, the report singles out Florida as one of the nation's top 10 hot spots for mortgage fraud, along with Georgia, South Carolina, Illinois, Missouri, Michigan, California, Nevada, Colorado and Utah.
How Widespread Appraisal Fraud Puts Homeowners at Risk
Up to half of all appraisers have reported feeling pressures from lenders or brokers to overstate property values. Many appraisers go along with these pressures out of fear of losing future work. Appraisers who have not complied with such pressures report not being paid for work and being blacklisted by lenders and brokers.
Realty Times: Appraisal Fraud Most Likely Greater Than Reported
Realty Times: The Appraisal Crisis and the FBI
Mortgage News: Appraisal Fraud and the Need to Sort Out the Victims from the Perps
The petition states in part "Lenders have individuals within their ranks who, as a normal course of business, apply pressure on appraisers to hit or exceed a predetermined value," and lists six of what it terms "many types of pressures" that are brought to bear on appraisers:
The withholding of business if we refuse to inflate values;
The withholding of business if we refuse to guarantee a predetermined value;
The withholding ob business if we refuse to ignore deficiencies in the property;
Refusing to pay for an appraisal that does not give them what they want;
"Black listing" honest appraisers in order to use "rubber stamp" appraisals, etc.
The petition requests that "action be taken to hold lenders responsible and provide for a penalty on anyone who engages in the practice of pressuring appraisers to do dishonest appraisals that do not provide for independent judgments."
As of April 21, the petition had 8,326 signatures.
--------------------------
and on, and on, and on....
First hand knowledge...I'll plead the 5th for right now.
SHELLYSHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
SHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal InsiderFinally, I want to say something on behalf of realtors. They work very hard for their money and are a bargain compared to paying an attorney's fees for other than reviewing the transaction work. If you start nipping and tucking at your realtor's commission, you are undermining their incentive to move your property.
The world has indeed changed...and that included the "World of the Realtor (tm)"
Many, many years ago (before technology) the realtors would bust their hump to move houses and deserved every last penny of commission. My realtor drove miles and miles viewing countless houses; checking out neighborhoods; mailing me copies of the local papers; looking up info on jobs, schools, shopping and churches in the communites and calling me with answers (and then asking, "What else would you like to know, how about the cost of garbage pickup?"); taking me and my spouse from house-to-house-to-house (and back again for one last look), offering me lunch, giving me cold drinks; always a smile, even when it was 98-degrees and 100% humidity; calling me at work to say, "I've found 2 more houses I think you should look at before you decide." She was a hero...she deserved every single penny of her commission.
Times have changed--especially during the housing boom: point, click, you'd better bid higher or you're not going to get it. "Great, the seller accepted your offer--that will be 6% please" What's up with that???
Cork On the OceanCork On the Oceandirectionally challengedSeacrest Beach2,450 postsJoined View profileMessagedirectionally challenged
Cork On the Oceandirectionally challengedSeacrest Beach2,450 postsJoined View profileMessagedirectionally challengedTwitching as I jump into this and I apologize that I haven't completely read the diatribes that we've bounced around so many times. Just a quick observation,
Sales are picking up over last year and early this year. Buyers are out there. Most want to steal a property and they are stealing them. IE:
The upside is that my house just appraised for $100K more than it did a year ago. (and no I didn't pay an unscrupulous appraiser) .
Spoke to another realtor yesterday. His take was that we are at the bottom. I don't know if I agree with that but I definitely am feeling that buyers are coming back. There are some investors out there that understand the cyclic nature of the market and buy low, sell high.
OK back to the lounge for some funn.
Sales are picking up over last year and early this year. Buyers are out there. Most want to steal a property and they are stealing them. IE:
Sold 2 lots for 350K each early 2004. Flipped for $589K late 2004.
Just put a comparable lot under contract.
Asking was 325K. We offered 270K
Seller countered at 310K
We countered and got it at $279K
2 other buyers this week. No contract but 1 is pretty sure. They're on their second trip in. Both are buying to rent and hold.
My experience is that there's several sellers that have dropped very low. The buyers are choosing the lowest priced property and then lowballing it.Just put a comparable lot under contract.
Asking was 325K. We offered 270K
Seller countered at 310K
We countered and got it at $279K
2 other buyers this week. No contract but 1 is pretty sure. They're on their second trip in. Both are buying to rent and hold.
The upside is that my house just appraised for $100K more than it did a year ago. (and no I didn't pay an unscrupulous appraiser) .
Spoke to another realtor yesterday. His take was that we are at the bottom. I don't know if I agree with that but I definitely am feeling that buyers are coming back. There are some investors out there that understand the cyclic nature of the market and buy low, sell high.
OK back to the lounge for some funn.
MangoMangoSoWal InsiderNew York/ Santa Rosa Beach9,699 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
MangoSoWal InsiderNew York/ Santa Rosa Beach9,699 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal InsiderMortgage Fraud Huge in Florida FBI Report Says
"The Federal Bureau of Investigation's recent Financial Crimes Report states that mortgage fraud is a "pervasive and growing" problem in the current market climate, especially in the Sunshine State. In fact, the report singles out Florida as one of the nation's top 10 hot spots for mortgage fraud, along with Georgia, South Carolina, Illinois, Missouri, Michigan, California, Nevada, Colorado and Utah."______________________________________
The mortgage fraud in Florida was predominately in the Miami market in unsavory neighborhoods with buyers who did not qualify traditionally and or phony W2's and paystubs were submitted.
As far as being nervous about being blackballed by realtors, yes, that is something appraisers do worry about, but most appraisals are ordered by the Banker or broker, so they worry about not being able to bring in a value to make a deal work. if its a a difference of a few grand, they can find ways to make those kinds of deals work easily, but there are realtors out there including sq. footage of basements that are below grade, or rooms above garages that are really just for storage, calling a 2 bedroom a 3 bedroom, the list goes on, and trying to get $50K-100K more for a property, and yes unscrupulous brokers or bankers who don't care that someone is buying an over-priced house, just want the deal done.
Most appraisers are highly educated individuals who have advanced degrees, must take numerous appraisal courses to receive designations, apprentice for a while, and have to get continuing education in addition.
The realtors who have similar credentials are the ones who last in the business when markets return to normal although, I feel 4-6% is quite a bit of money in a booming market, but now in a market with normal marketing times, they have to be more creative with their marketing of a property, the commission becomes justified.
MangoMangoSoWal InsiderNew York/ Santa Rosa Beach9,699 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
MangoSoWal InsiderNew York/ Santa Rosa Beach9,699 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider______________________________________
I agree with Beachbummett, well said as usual Donna! :clap_1:
I agree with Beachbummett, well said as usual Donna! :clap_1:
spinDrAtlspinDrAtlBeach Fanatic367 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Mortgage Fraud Huge in Florida FBI Report Says
The Federal Bureau of Investigation's recent Financial Crimes Report states that mortgage fraud is a "pervasive and growing" problem in the current market climate, especially in the Sunshine State. In fact, the report singles out Florida as one of the nation's top 10 hot spots for mortgage fraud, along with Georgia, South Carolina, Illinois, Missouri, Michigan, California, Nevada, Colorado and Utah.
How Widespread Appraisal Fraud Puts Homeowners at Risk
Up to half of all appraisers have reported feeling pressures from lenders or brokers to overstate property values. Many appraisers go along with these pressures out of fear of losing future work. Appraisers who have not complied with such pressures report not being paid for work and being blacklisted by lenders and brokers.
Realty Times: Appraisal Fraud Most Likely Greater Than Reported
Realty Times: The Appraisal Crisis and the FBI
Mortgage News: Appraisal Fraud and the Need to Sort Out the Victims from the Perps
The petition states in part "Lenders have individuals within their ranks who, as a normal course of business, apply pressure on appraisers to hit or exceed a predetermined value," and lists six of what it terms "many types of pressures" that are brought to bear on appraisers:
The withholding of business if we refuse to inflate values;
The withholding of business if we refuse to guarantee a predetermined value;
The withholding ob business if we refuse to ignore deficiencies in the property;
Refusing to pay for an appraisal that does not give them what they want;
"Black listing" honest appraisers in order to use "rubber stamp" appraisals, etc.
The petition requests that "action be taken to hold lenders responsible and provide for a penalty on anyone who engages in the practice of pressuring appraisers to do dishonest appraisals that do not provide for independent judgments."
As of April 21, the petition had 8,326 signatures.
--------------------------
and on, and on, and on....
First hand knowledge...I'll plead the 5th for right now.
Typical hyperbole and vagueness that tries to intimate that you have some secret that the rest of us don't. Intended or not, your original post had the implication that you knew of specific examples in the local area, spoken with your usual air of authority.
Although I have no doubt that mortgage fraud exists, it's normally a collusion of a group of criminals - lenders,brokers,agents,straw buyers, appraisers, etc. who work in a concentrated area (meaning a subdivision or two). Most of the articles you reference are based on broad sweeping generalizations without any concrete numbers. In Georgia, there were several mortgage fraud rings discovered that worked a couple different neighborhoods in the Atlanta area. While this is definitely a problem, it is in no way affecting the Atlanta metro area property values as a whole.
You point to an article that says 'up to half of all appraisers have reported....'. Upon further review, we find that in 2003 there was a survey of 500 appraisers in 44 states where 55% reported pressure. Then someone else took that article and wrote another article stating 'over half of appraisers surveyed reported....' and then to complete the chain, another article referenced that report and stated 'up to half of all appraisers ....' at which point you quoted it here. Most of your anecdotal posts reek of that school yard chain of one person telling another telling another whereupon the end result is quite different from the original. Half of all appraisers is quite different from 55% of 500 appraisers.
spinDrAtlspinDrAtlBeach Fanatic367 postsJoined View profileMessageBeach Fanatic
Deleted, double post.
SHELLYSHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal Insider
SHELLYSoWal Insider5,763 postsJoined View profileMessageSoWal InsiderSold 2 lots for 350K each early 2004. Flipped for $589K late 2004.
Just put a comparable lot under contract.
Asking was 325K. We offered 270K
Seller countered at 310K
We countered and got it at $279K
There are some investors out there that understand the cyclic nature of the market and buy low, sell high.
....I'm guessing that the client who ended up with the $589K comparable lot in 2004 may not have a grasp of the cyclic nature of the market?
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