May Inventory and Sales breakdown

additional numbers below

Thanks for including us "out-of-towners" SJ.
Look pretty dismal still.
Summer 2006 sales may put many a realtor on a starvation diet. Not you tho' SJ..ur having too much funn.
P.s I may bug for SoWal's best kayak spots one of these days!!! ...better yet let me tag along?..pleeeease?

Thanks for including us "out-of-towners" SJ.
Look pretty dismal still.
Summer 2006 sales may put many a realtor on a starvation diet. Not you tho' SJ..ur having too much funn.
P.s I may bug for SoWal's best kayak spots one of these days!!! ...better yet let me tag along?..pleeeease?

No problem adding "your" area to my data. :funn:

Regarding kayaking, what are you waiting for?

PS - the best spots are undiscovered. ;-)

Wow--those numbers look pretty dismal. Doesn't look like sales could get any slower. How much farther can the prices fall?

Wow--those numbers look pretty dismal. Doesn't look like sales could get any slower. How much farther can the prices fall?

The inventory of properties is the major concern...the prices are not a big issue.

Da Bears and Da Bulls--

The numbers for May look just as bad as the numbers for all of 2006 and the latter part of 2005. It seems like there are more bears coming out of the woods on this forum lately and the bulls are starting to get very quiet. That's no surprise. Some people spotted the trends early and others took a while to see the writing on the wall. But there is no disputing the data now.

There is no news on the horizon that would indicate that the market will do anything but continue to decline for the forseeable future.

For anyone looking to buy, deals are getting better by the week but I would keep waiting a little while before jumping on one of these deals. They are likely to get better and better regardless of the futile attempt by Joe to bolster the market by extending buildout deadlines. The extensions have not caused any reduction in the number of resale lots on the market and it won't. The investors that were looking to divest will continue to list their properties in hopes of selling before the next deadline smacks them in the face.

It will be a long while before this market ever sees prices or sales activity similar to 2004.

It will be a long while before this market ever sees prices or sales activity similar to 2004.

It looks like we're going to find out how long it really takes for hell to freeze over. 😀

It will be a long while before this market ever sees prices or sales activity similar to 2004.

Did you not see the data which I posted in the first two posts? I posted the data to share, not to be disregarded. Out of the nine reports posted, only one category, Condos from Sandestin to Okaloosa Co, is down 2.9% for May (when comparing 2004 to 2006). If you recall, 2004 was the second best year for real estate in this general area, and we are ahead of 2004 prices. Do the numbers speak differently to you?

Thanks, SJ. I was reading the info like you,but the post from Monty had me questioning my powers of deduction.

It looks like we're going to find out how long it really takes for hell to freeze over. 😀

My post above was said tong-in-cheek. When we were at the beach last weekend, there was no shortage of people with tons of money to spend. People have always flocked to the water, and probably always will.

I?ve lived in Florida for 40 years and I?ve been through a lot of real estate cycles. People always say that the current cycle is different, but that?s usually not the case. They all end and the long-term trend is up. :razz:

SJ: Thanks for posting this - very helpful - but I have a question. I was trying to look to see if the purchase of our home in Feb 2006 would be listed. I looked under single family detached east of Sandestin - but obviously our purchase is not included - am i looking in wrong place? Thanks for your help.

SJ: Thanks for posting this - very helpful - but I have a question. I was trying to look to see if the purchase of our home in Feb 2006 would be listed. I looked under single family detached east of Sandestin - but obviously our purchase is not included - am i looking in wrong place? Thanks for your help.

The data which I posted are average prices taken from Emerald Coast Association of Realtors. If your purchase was recorded in the MLS, it is included in my numbers.

From what I can tell, no homes or lots in your community are entered in the MLS as being sold, :nono1: which is against ECAR's MLS rules. I do see two active listings for homes and two for lots, but we both know that is not the real story, too. ;-)

The data which I posted are average prices taken from Emerald Coast Association of Realtors. If your purchase was recorded in the MLS, it is included in my numbers.

From what I can tell, no homes or lots in your community are entered in the MLS as being sold, :nono1: which is against ECAR's MLS rules. I do see two active listings for homes and two for lots, but we both know that is not the real story, too. ;-)

Not sure which numbers you are talking about, but the number of actual sales in all categories east of Sandestin on your spreadsheets are down May 2004 versus May 2006 or May 2005 versus May 2006. Some of the sales figures are down by over 75% when comparing 04 to 06. If you are referring to the average price, then you are correct. However, the sample sizes are way too small to glean any real comparisons of average price year over year.

The only way to do a reasonabel price comparison is to compare prices of comp sales. Look at sales in any of the major developments along 30A and compare lot prices (for lots next door to each other) from 2004, 2005 and 2006. You will see that in every development that lot prices are way down from market highs. Your spreadsheets show that actual unit sales are down dramatically, and if you look at lot sales comps, sales prices are also way down. Argue if you want to, but from what I read you are a realtor with access to all MLS data, so before you argue, look at cypress dunes, the preserve, watercolor, watersound, etc and look at recent lot sales compared to nearby lots that sold 18 or 24 months ago. In virtually all cases, you will find prices are way down. House comps are more difficult, but most realtors I have talked to would agree that prices on homes are down too, just not as dramatically as lot prices.

The average sales price on your spreadsheets is interesting information, but not useful for making comparison year over year. If the sales data had hundreds or thousands of unit sales, then the average price comparson might be valid. With fewer than 20 sales in most categories, the average price comp is not statistically valid.

I say thanks to SJ we have this data to compare and interpret. Unless you are a realtor or know one that will provide this data, it is not available in an easy format to analyze.


There are many ways to analyze this data and you can interpret it many different ways. Obviously, unit sales are down in 2005 for all categories and as everyone that is following the SoWal market the listing prices are down in alot of cases as well. Facts are facts. IMO, all RE markets go thru periods of growth and adjustments and that is the #1 fact of all. We are in a flat zone right now and IMO it will pick back up again at some point for all of the reasons many have posted many times. The big question in my mind is how long before it does pick back up. Some will say never, I say it will but no telling when, and anly time will tell. Timing any market is very tough (IMO).

Debate over analysis is good but as said I am very thankful to SJ on posting this data on the board. :clap_1:

Sandcastle is correct...this is just another cycle and its no different than the last...There's no doubt that some will get crushed...Bankruptcies may go up...Monty says there's more bears than bulls...Sentiment is also part of the cycle...Rates got us here and rates will be the driver in the future...The idea that this is the END is just another overly dramatic characterization of someone whose never been through a cycle...This will be where you tell the men from the boys....

I am very thankful to SJ on posting this data on the board. :clap_1:

Ditto <with no sarcasm attached>

I've thanked SJ before for posting this data. I REALLY appreciate it.

Not sure which numbers you are talking about, but the number of actual sales in all categories east of Sandestin on your spreadsheets are down May 2004 versus May 2006 or May 2005 versus May 2006. Some of the sales figures are down by over 75% when comparing 04 to 06. If you are referring to the average price, then you are correct. However, the sample sizes are way too small to glean any real comparisons of average price year over year.

The only way to do a reasonabel price comparison is to compare prices of comp sales. Look at sales in any of the major developments along 30A and compare lot prices (for lots next door to each other) from 2004, 2005 and 2006. You will see that in every development that lot prices are way down from market highs. Your spreadsheets show that actual unit sales are down dramatically, and if you look at lot sales comps, sales prices are also way down. Argue if you want to, but from what I read you are a realtor with access to all MLS data, so before you argue, look at cypress dunes, the preserve, watercolor, watersound, etc and look at recent lot sales compared to nearby lots that sold 18 or 24 months ago. In virtually all cases, you will find prices are way down. House comps are more difficult, but most realtors I have talked to would agree that prices on homes are down too, just not as dramatically as lot prices.

The average sales price on your spreadsheets is interesting information, but not useful for making comparison year over year. If the sales data had hundreds or thousands of unit sales, then the average price comparson might be valid. With fewer than 20 sales in most categories, the average price comp is not statistically valid.

Duh! The reason why I typed my earlier post contradicting you is because YOU specifically said that it will be a long time before we see prices close to 2004. YOU mentioned price. Little data or not, I am using the only data there is for my data. The avg sold prices are closed sales and if you want to break the data into specific neighborhoods, you are going to be using even less data to get your numbers so I am sure that you would have even more reason to diminish their validity. I agree that the quantity of sales is way off. I have never said anything otherwise.

I love to hear both sides, but perhaps in the future, you should be specific when taking shots at the numbers in my data.