October real trend report

With SFH prices up slightly, does this mean we've hit the trough and are on the way back up?

With SFH prices up slightly, does this mean we've hit the trough and are on the way back up?

With a sales volume down 44% and flat sale prices y-o-y, one or two "higher priced" sales (albeit at a 'bargain prices') can bump the month-to-month median sale price up no problem.

If a buyer who only wanted to spend $1.5M came along and managed to talk a seller down off the roof (especially if the house has been sitting on the market for a year with "dream price" of $2M), that can easily move the median prices up from the previous month when there were no "higher-end" sales.

I doubt you'll see the bottom of a trough and a turn-around during the winter months.

BTW, didn't the NAR say 2006 would be "the third best year after consecutive records in 2004 and 2005"? I don't see the chance for any repeats of 2004/2005, so what we've seen in 2006 may just be as good as it gets :idontno:

With a sales volume down 44% and flat sale prices y-o-y, one or two "higher priced" sales (albeit at a 'bargain prices') can bump the month-to-month median sale price up no problem.

If a buyer who only wanted to spend $1.5M came along and managed to talk a seller down off the roof (especially if the house has been sitting on the market for a year with "dream price" of $2M), that can easily move the median prices up from the previous month when there were no "higher-end" sales.

I doubt you'll see the bottom of a trough and a turn-around during the winter months.

BTW, didn't the NAR say 2006 would be "the third best year after consecutive records in 2004 and 2005"? I don't see the chance for any repeats of 2004/2005, so what we've seen in 2006 may just be as good as it gets :idontno:

Shelly is correct. With such a small sample size, one or two big dollar sales can swing the average price significantly. A better way to look at the numbers would be the median price but I don't have the data to find that number.

In October 2006, there was one home sold for $5.1 million and one sold for $4.3 million. No sales recorded in October 2005 were for more than $3 million. So, the averages are probably a bit skewed. It is difficult to make predictions off of one months data.