Tropical Deppression 4

Here's an interesting graph. I prefer the CLP5 (orange) and NGPS (Teal) models

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

:nono1:

I don't want any damage at the beach, but considering the heatwave/drought we are currently having in west Alabama, I wouldn't mind this thing coming right through my backyard - provided it's primarily a rainmaker.

I'm not so sure that warm air coming out of the Gulf will provide cool air, even if it brings rain.

I'm not so sure that warm air coming out of the Gulf will provide cool air, even if it brings rain.

I'll gladly take the rain either way. But I guarantee you a storm would break the cycle of days when we've had temps in excess of 102. It's horrible.

Re: Tropical Depression 4

It will end up in the Atlantic... That's my story, and I am sticking to it!

I'll gladly take the rain either way. But I guarantee you a storm would break the cycle of days when we've had temps in excess of 102. It's horrible.

I am with you JB, we could pray for just a nice, mild tropical storm to help the current extreme drought. Always hope for the best.

Re: Tropical Depression 4

It will end up in the Atlantic... That's my story, and I am sticking to it!

I sure hope you are right. We are heading South the 24th and don't need any tropical storm raining on our parade. It has been quiet this season and now they are showing two, one crossing into the southeast part of the Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday bringing rain eventually to Texas and then this other one out around the Yucatan Peninsula. I would hate to not get to come down there or to have to leave midweek because of this. Hopefully it will stay away from the panhandle. Getting a good rain to cool things off would be one thing and to bring some much needed rain, but no hurricane please.

Just swell is all I ask!!!!!

Just swell is all I ask!!!!!

Yeah, Bobby J, you want to be able to surf!

I used to say we needed a hurricane to blow the stank of things every now and again...but that was before they started getting a pissy on us

Just swell is all I ask!!!!!

tell me about it...anything.....

Just swell is all I ask!!!!!

Welcome Back Bobby!

You will probably get your wish this week AND next week....unfortunately....


It's that time again......

As long as it is gone before we head down next Friday and doesn't do any damage. A good rain would be welcome and I wouldn't mind seeing a tropical system if it was a minor one and not one that would keep us rained in the entire week or make us have to evacuate. Especially after already paying for our townhouse. Storm storm stay away, hope you trek another way.

As long as it is gone before we head down next Friday and doesn't do any damage. A good rain would be welcome and I wouldn't mind seeing a tropical system if it was a minor one and not one that would keep us rained in the entire week or make us have to evacuate. Especially after already paying for our townhouse. Storm storm stay away, hope you trek another way.

Keep your fingers crossed, but keep your eyes open. The GOM will be seeing the effects of Dean IF it makes it there mid-latter next week. Still to early to really say.....but stay tuned!



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad

Keep your fingers crossed, but keep your eyes open. The GOM will be seeing the effects of Dean IF it makes it there mid-latter next week. Still to early to really say.....but stay tuned!



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad

Any chance it could skirt up the Atlantic side instead???

There is always that chance....Mother Nature is never very predictable.....

But, I wouldn't bet the farm on that chance...more probable of it getting into the GOM, cutting across FL THEN getting into the Atlantic....

Jest my uneducatid opineon......

Well.. it seems there is another...

The first is new Tropical Depression (Five) in the central Gulf of Mexico just north of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This low is moving off to the west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Clouds and rain from the system should spread into southern Texas on Wednesday. This tropical depression is forecast to become a tropical storm, named Erin, before making landfall in the next few days.

Too bad for Texas, they have been soaked with rain as of late. I think we actually could use a wet tropical storm over in these parts.

Any chance it could skirt up the Atlantic side instead???

Be careful even if it does, Katrina did just that; made landfall on the Altlantic coast of Florida came across the state back into the gulf, where it got really nasty.

Seems like I remember a storm named "Erin". Was that the year we had one every 2 weeks or something? I had a piece of plywood that we put it up on one window that had the names & dates that we put it up. I think the first name was Allison in June and I got tired of writing on it and stopped in August.

Jeff Masters....

None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean's likely track. At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast

Seems like I remember a storm named "Erin". Was that the year we had one every 2 weeks or something? I had a piece of plywood that we put it up on one window that had the names & dates that we put it up. I think the first name was Allison in June and I got tired of writing on it and stopped in August.

Erin and Opal impacted sowal in 95.

Jeff Masters....

None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean's likely track. At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast

We'll all be watching it.