TS Dean in the Atlantic forecast to make it to the Leeward Islands beyond that who knows. In the Gulf of Mexico a disturbance which will probably be upgraded to a TD tonight and probably bring some unwanted rain to Texas by the weekend. Panhandle out of the woods so far.
Tropicwatch
Replies
18
SoWal Expert
The adrenaline rush that used to stay with me during Kentucky's spring tornado season is starting to build for the hurricane season. :shock: Just warning y'all in advance- I'll be getting a little more jumpy and hyper than I already am, if it is possible.
Beach LoverAuthor
Funny!
SoWal Expert
Funny!
No, actually it is kinda sick.....
Beach Crab
Just a fluke we have had all these storms n recent years..
Beach Fanatic
The adrenaline rush that used to stay with me during Kentucky's spring tornado season is starting to build for the hurricane season. :shock: Just warning y'all in advance- I'll be getting a little more jumpy and hyper than I already am, if it is possible.
The unofficial medical term for this type of hurricane anxiety is 'please don't blow my house away' syndrome.
Quite normal and the only remedy is to drink lots and lots of jen=ay's margaritas...don't worry there is a huge support group for this kinds problem!!;-)Beach LoverAuthor
Erin is born and heading for Texas, like they need more rain, NOT! Dean will be a hurricane and looks like the U.S. might have to deal with her. Where in the states is a big question mark still.
Tropicwatch
Tropicwatch
Meow
Erin is born and heading for Texas, like they need more rain, NOT! Dean will be a hurricane and looks like the U.S. might have to deal with her. Where in the states is a big question mark still.
Tropicwatch
My daddy just turned on his sprinklers for the first time this summer. I sure hope this Erin is not another Alicia!
Beach LoverAuthor
Erin is gone but Dean is next. So far it looks like Dean will make the GOM. By Saturday we should have a better idea on who Dean is going to screw with.
Tropicwatch
Tropicwatch
SoWal Expert
The unofficial medical term for this type of hurricane anxiety is 'please don't blow my house away' syndrome.
Oh Lordy....this hurricane thing is distracting me big time. I can't stop thinking about it!!
SoWal Insider
Erin is gone but Dean is next. So far it looks like Dean will make the GOM. By Saturday we should have a better idea on who Dean is going to screw with.
Tropicwatch
You always have good info but your 'tar is just evil.
Oh Lordy....this hurricane thing is distracting me big time. I can't stop thinking about it!!
Chill jdarg. 
It will be OK. You can evacuate to Tampa. 
Beach Fanatic
I certainly DO NOT want Dean to go straight into the Gulf, but I don't want it to hit the Yucatan as a cat. 3 or more!!!! I'm sure you know what most of the Yucatan homes look like. And, I'm not talking about the Caribbean side of the "Myan Riviera".
Although it gets hit hard too.
I don't see anything calming this one down unless it goes over the Yucatan.
Tropicwatch how does it look for Jamaica....or is it too early. Pray for the best in the Leeward Islands!!!!
Although it gets hit hard too.
I don't see anything calming this one down unless it goes over the Yucatan.
Tropicwatch how does it look for Jamaica....or is it too early. Pray for the best in the Leeward Islands!!!!
Beach Lover
Sometimes I wonder if they have one up on us...meaning that we build these huge expensive structures and they build something inexpesive and it blows away- only for them to rebuild in a week or so..
Makes you wonder who's smarter...don't it?
Makes you wonder who's smarter...don't it?
SoWal Expert
Oooh!! That would be fun! Hope y'all like cats and dogs!
Beach LoverAuthor
You always have good info but your 'tar is just evil.
I could say the same about yours, go NOLES!
ItzKatzTime, Jamaica is not looking to good. Could possibly get a direct hit from Dean as a Cat 4.
Tropicwatch
SoWal Insider
Not to be an alarmist, but I heard tonight on our local Chicago news that they expect Dean to reach a Cat. 5 by next week! :shock: Hopefully, it's just typical hype.
SoWal Expert
Not to be an alarmist, but I heard tonight on our local Chicago news that they expect Dean to reach a Cat. 5 by next week! :shock: Hopefully, it's just typical hype.Dean is already a strong Cat 3, but NOAA is predicting Dean to build up to a Cat 4 before hitting the Yucatan, then decreasing speeds back to a Cat 3. Note, however, that, according to Dr Jeff Masters, of the nine probability computer models they use, five are shown to have negative accuracy rates when predicting more than 5 days ahead.
Figure 1. Track forecast skill in 2006 of the official forecast and the various models, compared to a "zero skill" forecast using NHC's CLIPER5 model. The CLIPER model (short for CLImatology and PERsistence) is a model that makes a forecast based on historical paths hurricane have taken, along with the fact that hurricanes tend to keep moving in the direction they are going (i.e., their current motion persists). Note that many models had a negative skill for their 120 hour (5 day) forecast. The official NHC forecast had about 10% skill at 5 days. Image credit: NHC.
Beach LoverAuthor
Not to be an alarmist, but I heard tonight on our local Chicago news that they expect Dean to reach a Cat. 5 by next week! :shock: Hopefully, it's just typical hype.
Cat 5 is possible. Dean was just upgraded to a Cat 4.
SoWal Insider
Cat 5 is possible. Dean was just upgraded to a Cat 4.yep.
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