Right now, the green and lavender computer models aren't looking pretty. Hopefully, if the storm comes our way, it won't gather much steam.:shock:
Right now, the green and lavender computer models aren't looking pretty. Hopefully, if the storm comes our way, it won't gather much steam.:shock:
Replies
5
Beach Fanatic
Keep your eye on GFDL, in blue. It's got the best historical track record of the bunch.
But none of them have much luck until the broad atmospheric trends become a little more well-defined. They depend so much on how they are initialized, which is why the Hurricane Hunters are our friends.
The data they gather is used to initialize the models, improving their accuracy.
SJ, you probably knew this already...
But none of them have much luck until the broad atmospheric trends become a little more well-defined. They depend so much on how they are initialized, which is why the Hurricane Hunters are our friends.
The data they gather is used to initialize the models, improving their accuracy.SJ, you probably knew this already...
Edited
SoWal ExpertAuthor
Yes, I've been reading about the models. Currently, the models are all over the place right now and some appear to have multiple paths. Hopefully it fizzles out.
Beach Fanatic
Yes, I've been reading about the models. Currently, the models are all over the place right now and some appear to have multiple paths. Hopefully it fizzles out.98L
The tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (98L), couldn't hold together its circulation any longer in the face of four days of wind shear and dry air. The disturbance has degenerated into a loose swirl of disorganized clouds. There is still some rotation evident on satellite imagery, and this region will need to be watched over the next few days.
SoWal ExpertAuthor
98LThere is another thread for Invest 98. Invest 99 is still rumbling.
The tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (98L), couldn't hold together its circulation any longer in the face of four days of wind shear and dry air. The disturbance has degenerated into a loose swirl of disorganized clouds. There is still some rotation evident on satellite imagery, and this region will need to be watched over the next few days.
SoWal ExpertAuthor
Invest 99 looks like it will gain some strength and head toward the Carolinas.
I found the following in Dr Masters' blog this morning:
African development?
The models unanimously forecast a tropical depression will develop near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa 2-4 days from now. The models showed a similar degree of unanimity for the development of Hurricane Dean in a similar situation, so the chances of another named storm off the coast of Africa early next week are considerable.
I found the following in Dr Masters' blog this morning:
African development?
The models unanimously forecast a tropical depression will develop near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa 2-4 days from now. The models showed a similar degree of unanimity for the development of Hurricane Dean in a similar situation, so the chances of another named storm off the coast of Africa early next week are considerable.
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