ECMWF Tropical Forecast Site - We have a problem

FWIW

I've been using this site for years. They always are significantly more accurate than the forecasts coming from the NHC. Their predictions are also further out in the future.

According to what's on there today (and this just developed since last night) the Mobile-Gulf Shores-Pensacola area has a problem on Monday the 24th. And we will be getting a lighter dose of it.

The location is http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007091400!!/

Go to that page and press the play (right arrow) button just to the left of the forecast base time. Then watch the Gulf.

I don't know if this is Ingrid or something new.

Looks like it might be a fast storm like Humberto. Really good site...thanks!

According to TS Ingrid's tracking models, it is something different. Interesting sight.

Looks like a really evil pinball game.

Re: (Better news) ECMWF Tropical Forecast Site - We have a problem

Of course, better is a relative term. Better for SoWal.

Based on the latest update, it is shifting west. It looks more like it is aiming for La. rather than Alabama.

Here is more on potential development in the Gulf next week. Of course, forecasting that far out is pretty uncertain. I think this might be a good reminder though that storms can develop pretty quickly in the Gulf this time of the year, as if Humberto wasn't a good enough reminder.
Best to have plenty of water, food, can opener, full tank of gas, all that stuff - even if you plan on leaving, you might not be able to get out in time if it's a sneak attack.

This is from Dr. Jeff Masters? Wunderblog on Weather Underground, Saturday morning blog:

"Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models all suggest a tropical depression may form in the Western Caribbean on Wednesday and move northwards into the Gulf of Mexico or over Florida."

And from the Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
411 am CDT Sat Sep 15 2007

"Long term...
an upper low gets cut off from the East Coast trough and moves
west through the Gulf next week. Some guidance suggest that a surface
low with a hint of having tropical characteristics will form
beneath the upper low by Thursday. Upper lows are not conducive for
tropical development directly beneath them unless they sit over a
marine area long enough and greatly modify. On the other
hand...the area upstream from the upper low...in this case to the
east of the upper low...conditions are much more hospitable for
some development."

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Who dat?!

Who dat?!

Unnamed so far. Keep an eye on the next 18 hours, but it is expected to come of the west coast of Florida and head west to LA/TX as a Tropical Storm/small hurricane. There is a High Pressure to the north that is expected to keep it moving west, and a low pressure to the west that is expected to cause shear and not allow great strengthening. Get your surfboards ready, it looks like that will be the greatest impact for now.

If anyone's interested in more spaghetti on their models, the South Florida Water Management District has some nice plot maps here:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

The area of interest we've talking about is currently called storm93, but will be renamed to storm10 if/when it becomes a tropical depression or subtropical storm. Note- models that are currently wanting to take the storm over Apalachee Bay are generally regarded as less reliable for a storm at this latitude than the UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFDL are. But if it's the start of a trend, it would be good for all if the system spent that little time over open water.