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DOW drops 1000 points

30ashopper avatar
SoWal Insider
1,170 views
A bad day in the financial markets was made worse by an apparent trading glitch, leaving traders and investors nervous and scratching their heads over how a mistake could send the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a 1000-point tailspin.

At its afternoon low, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had plummeted 998.50 points, its biggest intraday point drop ever. The swing from its intraday high was 1010.14 points.

The markets were already on edge before the midafternoon collapse as traders watched televised scenes of rioting in Athens following the Greek government's approval of its portion of the European Union and International Monetary Fund bailout.

Throughout the day, markets around the globe posted big declines as investors reacted with disappointment to the failure of the European Central Bank to signal any heightened concern about the spiraling Greek debt crisis.

The Dow eventually rebounded to close down 347.80 points, or 3.2%, at 10520.32, its worst percentage decline since April 2009.

Standard & Poor's 500-stock index dropped 3.2% to 1128.15 Bond, commodity and currency markets were all roiled as investors fled from risky assets toward the safety of gold and Treasurys.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility index, or VIX, which tracks volatility in stock-index options, at one point soared 60% to nearly 40 and ended the day up nearly 32%.

Dow Takes a Harrowing 1,010.14-Point Trip - WSJ.com

Yikes!

Replies

25
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#3
It's beginning to feel a lot like 2009 all over again. :shock:
TreeFrog avatar
Beach Fanatic
#4
Just caught a glimpse of a report that said it was a trading error on Proctor and Gamble that kicked it off. Heads should roll somewhere.
TreeFrog avatar
Beach Fanatic
#5
Yall, I miss Shelly. This thread begs for a Shelly comment!
Kurt avatar
Admin
#6
It's a good time to buy.
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#7
I hear they are looking at a snowball effect computer error once again. :bang:
Lynnie avatar
SoWal Insider
#8
Yesterday, we came very close to seeing something that rarely occurs: the market closing in the middle of the day due to rapid sell off. :shock: Exciting, but I hope we do not see that happen.
TNJed avatar
Beach Fanatic
#9
This computer error stuff is hogwash IMO. This is about a no-bid market formed from months of low volume stock gains. When sell programs get triggered suddenly and there is nothing but air underneath those cheap gains, a void is hit and prices plunge. What triggered the sell off?

The Yen/Dollar swap. If it ain't one thing, it's another. Another is usually gravity + straw.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Equity Plunge Yen Connection; Reflections on Ponzi Markets and Program Trading
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#10
The "fat fingered" trade has apparently been discredited. This may well have been an honest to goodness market sell off.

Europe is disintegrating financially as I type this.. hold on to your hats, it's going to be *another* bumpy ride.
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#12
Yep, that's why you invest LONG-term! :wave:

And BP is apparently still a good stock. :idontno:
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#13
Yep, that's why you invest LONG-term! :wave:

And BP is apparently still a good stock. :idontno:

I don't know, I keep hearing that "buy-and-hold" is dead. It worries me a bit as I like "buy-and-hold" myself because it is so simple. If you look at the last decade, "buy-and-hold" has a very dismal record of very little return.. and now they are talking about the potential for two lost decades in the U.S. markets.
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#14
Would these be the same people who recommend all of the risky and unbacked financial concepts and massive borrowing that are causing the current global debt clusterpuck? :sarc:

"Buy and hold" is dead like not being in debt and living up to your financial obligations is dead. :roll:

Though IMO most of that advice is based on the fact that they don't make any money when you buy and hold long term. They want you making lots of trades so they get commissions.

They can keep giving advice, but I will stick to those tired old fashioned financial ideas - the ones that they have been scoffing at for years, and that we are all realizing weren't quite so stupid and old-fashioned after all - just good common sense.

What are they using to quantify the rate of return? My guess is that if you extend the time period of what they are comparing it to include when the bottom falls out and the bubble pops, not just the "ups" buy and hold looks better. Interest rates aren't great, stocks continue to increase in value and pay dividends, and the fact that "financial pundits" are advocating against it just convinces me it's a good idea.
Lynnie avatar
SoWal Insider
#15
Was in a meeting yesterday with a wholesaler who doesn't believe the last ten years have been a lost decade, but rather proven opportunities to invest on lonely vs. popular theories.

Historical data proves the lonely side to the theory will bring much greater returns overall. So, coming out of the lost decade places us in a lonely spot. I am seeing opportunities, but not necessarily buy and hold either. I think you have to use a little more sophisticated strategy today.
Andy A avatar
Beach Fanatic
#16
Was in a meeting yesterday with a wholesaler who doesn't believe the last ten years have been a lost decade, but rather proven opportunities to invest on lonely vs. popular theories.

Historical data proves the lonely side to the theory will bring much greater returns overall. So, coming out of the lost decade places us in a lonely spot. I am seeing opportunities, but not necessarily buy and hold either. I think you have to use a little more sophisticated strategy today.
I used a great strategy, Lynnie. I got out and I'm staying out. I must say, though, if I were your age that likely would not be the case.
Beach Fanatic
#17
Was in a meeting yesterday with a wholesaler who doesn't believe the last ten years have been a lost decade, but rather proven opportunities to invest on lonely vs. popular theories.

Historical data proves the lonely side to the theory will bring much greater returns overall. So, coming out of the lost decade places us in a lonely spot. I am seeing opportunities, but not necessarily buy and hold either. I think you have to use a little more sophisticated strategy today.

Diversification and having plan (and sticking to the plan) is a little more sophisticated.

Yes, the S&P 500 is down for the decade.

But it would be very foolish/risky to own 100% large US corporations.

OTOH, a 60/40 portfolio of US companies large & small combined with Barclays Aggregate Index had a Jan 2000 - Dec 2009 return of 6% annualized (assuming annual rebalancing which is not buy and hold).

We used DFA Large Cap Value, R 2000 Value index & the Barclays index.

There would be the tax drag of mutual funds also but that ain't always bad.

Is the Barclays index appropriate? The dramatic decline in interest rates could have skewed things.

OK, maybe sometime I'll run it with 1 mo T-bills. I don't feel like fooling with it now...long day.

Edited

Lynnie avatar
SoWal Insider
#18
Buz, I spoke with someone last week who follows another lonely theory......Chinese Gov't Bonds......emphasis is only their gov't bonds. Do this for a defensive measure?
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#19
That seems to be counter to the advice I have always been given to diversify, diversify, diversify.
Lynnie avatar
SoWal Insider
#20
Defensive is diversifying. I placed 'only their gov't bonds' so people wouldn't be confused thinking there was an advocacy of buying their equities, etc. It is a country taking off industrially and their bonds should be very safe......think USA in the 40's.:wave:
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#21
I don't think they are so safe - I don't trust the Chinese government (though if they decide to not honor their responsibilities, return on investment will be a minor concern as they own 2/3 of us) and I think they are starting to find out all of the negative aspects of their unchecked industrial expansion. They are poisoning their country to keep Walmart stocked and IMO they are also about to have some massive social upheaval.

Though I want popcorn to watch how they deal with Kim Jong Psycho's latest attempt to start a war - you know that nutty lil' pucker will try to screw everything up in that geographic area regardless of the consequences.
LuciferSam avatar
Banned
#22
This seems to be contrary to don't get advice from message boards.
Beach Fanatic
#23
I ran the report again using 1Mo T-Bills which may more closely mimic individual portfolios.

The result was lower (4.97 annualized return, rebalanced annually Jan 2000-Dec 2009) still a long way from a lost decade.

This ain't advice rather cold hard numbers.

Lucifer you are so right.
Lynnie avatar
SoWal Insider
#24
Interesting, Buz. Thank you. It seems there might be a few lost months between 2008 and 2009 if someone was heavily trading trying to make up for paper losses, but I tend to concur, it was not a lost decade.

Lucifer, you should stay in cash for a while.
scooterbug44 avatar
SoWal Expert
#25
If it was a "lost decade" I should run a hedge fund, because I still improved my portfolio. ;-)

Just because a stock is down doesn't mean it stops paying dividends.
Lynnie avatar
SoWal Insider
#26
Tell it to Wall St.

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