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White House bails on Keynes, goes supply side

30ashopper avatar
SoWal Insider
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With less than two months until the November elections, the White House is seriously weighing a package of business tax breaks - potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars - to spur hiring and combat Republican charges that Democratic tax policies hurt small businesses, according to people with knowledge of the deliberations.

Among the options under consideration are a temporary payroll tax holiday and a permanent extension of the now-expired research and development tax credit, which rewards companies that conduct research into new technologies within the United States.

Administration officials have struggled to develop new economic policies and an effective message to blunt expected Republican gains in Congress and defuse complaints from Democrats that President Obama is fumbling the issue most important to voters. After weeks of vacation and foreign policy, White House advisers have arranged a series of economic events for Obama next week, including two trips to swing states and a press conference.

..

With the unemployment rate expected to rise again in new jobs numbers due out Friday, panic is setting in among many Democratic candidates who fear it is too late for Obama to persuade voters that he understands the depth of the nation's economic woes and can fix them.

..

In November, Obama announced he would turn his attention to unemployment, calling it "one of the great challenges that remains in our economy." He declared the same intent two months later, telling House Democrats he would focus relentlessly on job creation "over the next several months." Senior aides went on television pledging the mantra would become "jobs, jobs, jobs."

But other matters - health care, the BP oil spill - continually stole the limelight, creating the impression, some Democrats complain, that the president was barely focused on the economy at all.

..


"We did the mosque, Katrina, Iraq, and now Middle East peace?" said a Democratic strategist who works closely with multiple candidates and spoke on the condition of anonymity. "And in between you redo the Oval Office? It has become a joke."

Desperation setting in? Maybe. The current administration squandered all their political capital on ObamaCare thinking it would win people over, and the poorly designed trillion dollar stimulus thinking it would repair the economy. Turns out people rejected ObamaCare's bill of goods, and the stimulus, while creating a temporary boost in GDP thanks to government spending, has done little to help the economic state of the average american.

So now they're scrambling for answers.

washingtonpost.com

side comment: Anyone heard anything about cap and trade lately? ;-)

Replies

25
LuciferSam avatar
Banned
#2
Easy 2012 victory for the Muslim Kenyan Messiah.
Bob avatar
SoWal Insider
#3
high unemployment is a reelection no no
LuciferSam avatar
Banned
#4
high unemployment is a reelection no no

2 years to address that problem.
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#5
The curtain has opened on Act II of our "Year of Two Halves"--RGE's theme since the end of 2009--with the slowdown forecast for H2 2010 getting here a bit earlier than expected. Growth in Q2 2010 registered a very weak 1.6%, revised down from an original estimate of 2.4%?a sharp slowdown from the 3.7% of Q1. This implies much weaker growth in H1 than even bearish forecasters had expected. Moreover, most of the growth was driven by a temporary inventory adjustment; final sales grew a mediocre 1.1% in Q1 and 1% in Q2.

All the tailwinds of H1 will become headwinds in H2. As state and local governments keep retrenching and even the federal stimulus diminishes, the fiscal stimulus will turn into a fiscal drag that will be much more pronounced in 2011 and after some of the 2001?03 tax cuts expire. The base effects from the lousy economic activity figures of 2009 are gone, temporary census hiring finished and tax incentives--cash for clunkers, the investment tax credit, the first-time home buyer tax credit and cash for green appliances--all expired after "stealing" demand and growth from the future.

V-Shaped Dreams Evaporate - Forbes.com

Lackluster results, at most.
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#6
2 years to address that problem.

Yes, but it's looking like the republicans will control congress for those two years. ;-)
LuciferSam avatar
Banned
#7
Yes, but it's looking like the republicans will control congress for those two years. ;-)

Then if the administration fails, blame the Republicans. If it succeeds, ignore them. It's not rocket science.
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#8
Then if the administration fails, blame the Republicans. If it succeeds, ignore them. It's not rocket science.

:roll:
LuciferSam avatar
Banned
#9
:roll:

With power comes accountability. Repubs in power will have to look at themselves in the mirror in assessing failure or success of our country. They are so used to causing deliberate failure. Can they break that habit?
AndrewG avatar
Beach Fanatic
#10
Then if the administration fails, blame the Republicans. If it succeeds, ignore them. It's not rocket science.

You're true colors show. You are so politically jaded it's borderline psychotic. Things have gotten so bad even the nutjobs think they are mainstream.

You have issues with the Discovery Channel too? :lol:
Lynnie avatar
SoWal Insider
#11
Great headline, 30ashopper! :wave:
LuciferSam avatar
Banned
#12
You're true colors show. You are so politically jaded it's borderline psychotic. Things have gotten so bad even the nutjobs think they are mainstream.

You have issues with the Discovery Channel too? :lol:

Reality 101. Psychosis is the inability to grasp it.
30A Skunkape avatar
Skunky
#13
2 years to address that problem.

I vote we have another census.:lol:
LuciferSam avatar
Banned
#14
I vote we have another census.:lol:

Actually just today the report came out and overall unemployment went up, partly due to loss of public sector jobs (census workers), but 67,000 private sector jobs were added. I think Obama is getting ready to throw business a bone, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Republicans tried to block it. No, I don't think I'm being too cynical.
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#15
With power comes accountability. Repubs in power will have to look at themselves in the mirror in assessing failure or success of our country. They are so used to causing deliberate failure. Can they break that habit?

Not sure about that, do you see anyone blaming the democrat lead congress for everything that took place between 2006 and 2010? The figure head tends to get the most blame.
LuciferSam avatar
Banned
#16
Not sure about that, do you see anyone blaming the democrat lead congress for everything that took place between 2006 and 2010? The figure head tends to get the most blame.

I do see some of that, yes.
Geo avatar
Beach Fanatic
#17
I agree with the premise that Obama squandered his political capital on Health Care. But two things helped shape this outcome-

1) Republicans and Fox News very effectively spread nonsensical rhetoric in the form of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt- e.g. death panels, communism/socialism, etc.) and they pushed the true shortcomings of the bill to the forefront

2) The Obama administration and democrats in general did a piss poor job of communicating the merits of the bill to the public and disspelling the FUD and when behind the 8 ball they pushed the bill through in a manner that came off very underhandedly to the masses- which provided even more fodder to the right
wrobert avatar
Beach Fanatic
#18
I agree with the premise that Obama squandered his political capital on Health Care. But two things helped shape this outcome-

1) Republicans and Fox News very effectively spread nonsensical rhetoric in the form of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt- e.g. death panels, communism/socialism, etc.) and they pushed the true shortcomings of the bill to the forefront

2) The Obama administration and democrats in general did a piss poor job of communicating the merits of the bill to the public and disspelling the FUD and when behind the 8 ball they pushed the bill through in a manner that came off very underhandedly to the masses- which provided even more fodder to the right


All I know we they passed health care and my premiums went up $200 a month. I sure hope they do not pass anything else.

Yes the Republicans will probably block anything he tries to do unless he comes up with a way to pay for it. At some point in time, all of this stuff has to be paid for.
Beach Fanatic
#19
I don't think before today, I've ever heard anyone blame high unemployment on Fox News.
Geo avatar
Beach Fanatic
#20
I don't think before today, I've ever heard anyone blame high unemployment on Fox News.

Huh? Who did that? If that was directed at me then you should reread my post. I said the outcome of Obama being perceived as having spent his politcial capital on Health Care was helped along by Fox News and the right.

:idontno:
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#21
We did get the credit card reform bill through. That was very popular legislation. Unfortunately for both parties, it was one of the very few bipartisian bills that passed the House and Senate. I guess neither can use it as a win. :D Maybe if the dems had pushed more legislation like this, they wouldn't be facing landslide losses in two months.

Edited

futurebeachbum avatar
Beach Fanatic
#22
I agree with the premise that Obama squandered his political capital on Health Care. But two things helped shape this outcome-

1) Republicans and Fox News very effectively spread nonsensical rhetoric in the form of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt- e.g. death panels, communism/socialism, etc.) and they pushed the true shortcomings of the bill to the forefront

2) The Obama administration and democrats in general did a piss poor job of communicating the merits of the bill to the public and disspelling the FUD and when behind the 8 ball they pushed the bill through in a manner that came off very underhandedly to the masses- which provided even more fodder to the right

On point #1, I'm not sure about the first part because I don't watch Fox, but I don't see "they pushed the true shortcomings of the bill to the forefront" as a criticism.

On point#2, It seemed to me that Obama completely ceded the illusion of leadership and involvement to Reid and Pelosi. Then Pelosi appeared ready to pass the bill at all costs. That taken with the public's apprehension about the impact of the bill, the 2000 pages nobody read and the massive boost in power it gave the IRS didn't put any of the Democratic leadership in a particularly favorable light.
Geo avatar
Beach Fanatic
#23
Regarding your second paragraph- I don't disagree.

Regarding the first one- believe it or not, I wasn't criticizing. Just doing my own wrap up. There were plenty of shortcomings with the bill. Point those out on top of making folks think the bill is communist and the dems are doomed. That's what I saw happened.

Disagree?
Beach Fanatic
#24
Regarding your second paragraph- I don't disagree.

Regarding the first one- believe it or not, I wasn't criticizing. Just doing my own wrap up. There were plenty of shortcomings with the bill. Point those out on top of making folks think the bill is communist and the dems are doomed. That's what I saw happened.

Disagree?


I don't disagree but I think the analysis could be explained further. The "right" publicized their belief the the bill was socialist and that fired up their base. But the "true shortcomings" of the bill began to come to light and that drew independents/center to give a close look to the bill as well. Then Reid and Pelosi began to buy votes and use underhanded methods to advance the bill and in the process lost more of the country. There was never any serious attempt at bipartisanship and it was exposed that the congressmen had not even read what they were voting on. All these factors combined led to one unpopular bill.
Geo avatar
Beach Fanatic
#25
I can't say I disagree but I do feel the need to clarify that both sides are absolutely to blame for a lack of bipartisanship. I think of two children behaving badly.

Obama and the dems were arrogant using "we won the election" as their MO. And the republicans with wanting healthcare to be "obama's Waterloo".
30ashopper avatar
SoWal InsiderAuthor
#26
I can't say I disagree but I do feel the need to clarify that both sides are absolutely to blame for a lack of bipartisanship. I think of two children behaving badly.

Obama and the dems were arrogant using "we won the election" as their MO. And the republicans with wanting healthcare to be "obama's Waterloo".

Bush tried the same thing post 2004 to get ss privatization through. He didn't have much luck. Granted dems got oc passed, but it'll cost them dearly.

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