Hurricane Predictions 2006

What category storm was Larry when it went ashore in Australia? Hurricanes almost aways reduce velocity significantly before they make landfall. If they are Cat 5 out at sea, they typically reduce to a strong Cat 3 by landfall. Mind you, that's not to underestimate the damage associated with a strong Cat 3. Since most of the damage is caused by storm surge, the actual size of the storm is as important as the wind velocity (which also creates storm surge). Ivan covered the entire Gulf of Mexico and had a huge storm surge. Opal was a large storm with very high velocity, yet it stalled out at sea before making landfall, so storm surge wasn't as bad as predicted. Still, Opal washed away the old Conch Out cottage and porch furniture from Wash-a-way was floating in "downtown" Grayton after the storm.

It will be interesting to see if the predictions are accurate for this year. People who attempt to predict earthquakes in CA are totally disregarded. Of course, their predictions never come true. Even the psychics have a better track record and they are not very accurate, either.

From this link:
"Cyclone Larry made landfall near Cairns, Queensland, with winds of up to 180 mph (290 km/hr). Larry reportedly flattened sugarcane fields and banana crops, ripped roofs off houses and uprooted trees in a 300km-wide swath (186 miles)."

If Cat 6 is set with windspeeds = or > 175mph, Larry would have been a Cat 6 when it hit land. :shock:

Larry was at one time reported to be the second strongest hurricane ever recorded. I am not sure if it surpassed number one in stregth.

Mercy! That is some scary stuff, SJ. Let's hope that Larry was an freak.

I took the hurricane test on AOL today and had a perfect score. And that's way, way too much Weather Channel in 2004/2005.

NOAA PREDICTS VERY ACTIVE 2006 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

highlights below:

The main uncertainty in this outlook is not whether the season will be above normal, but how much above normal it will be.

"For the 2006 north Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to six could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher,"

Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds, and a more favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are the factors that collectively will favor the development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.

This confluence of conditions in the ocean and atmosphere is strongly related to a climate pattern known as the multi-decadal signal, which has been in place since 1995. Since then, nine of the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two below-normal seasons during the El Ni?o years of 1997 and 2002.

Although we expect a very active hurricane season during 2006, we are not forecasting a repeat of last year?s record season at this time. This is partly because the tropical Atlantic SSTs are not presently as warm as we saw last year at this time.

Also, a combination of conditions led to the record 2005 season. Some of those, particularly an amplified upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S., long periods of suppressed convection near the date line, and exceptionally low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea region, are simply not predictable at this time.

Another factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray, 1984. El Ni?o favors fewer hurricanes and La Ni?a favors more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAA?s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through much of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, ENSO is not expected to impact this hurricane season.


http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm

Thanks accuweather ...:pissed:!!

It is rather interesting that the lowest risk area for Hurricanes, according to this map, is thepath of the first strike by a storm this season. :scratch:

I had remembered that map and was thinking the same thing, SJ.

It is rather interesting that the lowest risk area for Hurricanes, according to this map, is thepath of the first strike by a storm this season. :scratch:

Accuweather. :roll: Not.

I know I am always pimping my local paper, but this is a really interesting explanation of the Bermuda High and how it helps steer storms. It's the most easy to read piece I've been able to find yet -- and I've done lots of google searching on the subject -- and it comes with a graphic that made me go :doh:

Now I get it.

Bermuda High explained

Thank you for sharing that article, TooFar.
I liked the descriptions: "like pushing in the side of a marshmallow."
Metaphors like that help me more easily understand. ;-)

Here's something interesting NASA had to say about the Bermuda High...

In 2004 and 2005, the Bermuda High expanded to the south and west, pushing storms into the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. But as of May 31, 2006, the Bermuda High remained small and in a position that would steer storms up the East Coast of the United States or out into the Atlantic.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17292