This storm could later turn into a tropical depression today.
Replies
19
Beach Fanatic
Dam it ! I thought it was going north.....I'm not ready!!
SoWal ExpertAuthor
Jbeebe, yes, that image is from weatherunderground.com/tropical
Franny, Tropical Storm Debby is the one which is expected to hang out in the Atlantic and not hit the USA. Here is TS Debby's models:
Franny, Tropical Storm Debby is the one which is expected to hang out in the Atlantic and not hit the USA. Here is TS Debby's models:
Darlene is my middle name, not my nickname
That oyster looks good enough to eat SJ!!! I hope the storm goes away, never to return!!!!!
SoWal ExpertAuthor
Here is what Dr Jeff Masters had to say about it this morning:
Strong tropical wave blows into the Lesser Antilles
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:27 AM EDT on August 24, 2006
A powerful tropical wave that has the potential to become a serious hurricane is sweeping through the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today, bringing tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rains. Barbados reported sustained winds of 32 mph at 5am this morning. Togabo had wind gusts to 36 mph, and wind gusts to 43 mph were observed on St. Lucia. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 6:30am EDT shows a large area of 35 mph winds to the north of the center, which appears to be near 11N 59W, near the islands of Trinidad and Tobago and just off the South American coast. The storm's organization has steadily increased since yesterday, and the Hurricane Hunters are tasked to investigate this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed. The storm has two main areas of intense thunderstorms visible on satellite imagery this morning that are almost disconnected. I expect the northern mass will dissipate today, since it is much farther from the center of circulation.
Wind shear is favorable in a small area over the storm--5-10 knots--and is forecast to remain low through the next five days. However, there is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, so the forecast of low shear could easily change. A large area of dry air and Saharan dust covers much of the eastern Caribbean, and may be a modest impediment to intensification. The primary difficulty for the storm lies in its close proximity to South America. The storm center may hug the coast through Saturday, limiting its development. The storm should bring heavy rains and winds near tropical storm force over the ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao on Friday. After that, there is a lot of uncertainty.
The computer models
The latest 8pm and 2am EDT computer model runs have a variety of solutions. The Canadian model continues to be very consistent and very gung-ho, developing 97L into a strong tropical storm on Saturday, south of Jamaica, then taking the storm into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. The NOGAPS model is also consistent, assuming a more southerly track will occur with no development due to close proximity to the South American coast. The GFS takes a weak tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Saturday, then into the Bahamas. The GFDL has the same idea, but has a much stronger system that becomes a Category 1 hurricane in the Bahamas on Monday.
The run-to-run consistency of the GFDL has been poor, and both the GFDL and GFS have not done a good job forecasting the initial track of the storm so far. A more southerly track betwen Jamaica and Honduras like the Canadian and NOGAPS models are suggesting is probably more reasonable. If 97L can survive the next two days and separate from the South American coast--which it has at least a 50/50 chance of doing--I believe it will probably develop into a serious hurricane, as the GFDL and Canadian models have been suggesting. The track such a hurricane might take is highly uncertain, but it appears that Jamaica, Cuba, and the Yucatan would be at highest risk in the Caribbean. No part of the U.S. coast can be ruled out as a target in the longer term.
Got travel plans to the Caribbean this week? Don't change them yet. This appears to be an all-or-nothing kind of situation, and we could get nothing. It may not be until Saturday that we have a reasonable idea if this storm will be a major threat.
Strong tropical wave blows into the Lesser Antilles
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:27 AM EDT on August 24, 2006
A powerful tropical wave that has the potential to become a serious hurricane is sweeping through the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today, bringing tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rains. Barbados reported sustained winds of 32 mph at 5am this morning. Togabo had wind gusts to 36 mph, and wind gusts to 43 mph were observed on St. Lucia. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 6:30am EDT shows a large area of 35 mph winds to the north of the center, which appears to be near 11N 59W, near the islands of Trinidad and Tobago and just off the South American coast. The storm's organization has steadily increased since yesterday, and the Hurricane Hunters are tasked to investigate this afternoon to see if a tropical depression has formed. The storm has two main areas of intense thunderstorms visible on satellite imagery this morning that are almost disconnected. I expect the northern mass will dissipate today, since it is much farther from the center of circulation.
Wind shear is favorable in a small area over the storm--5-10 knots--and is forecast to remain low through the next five days. However, there is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, so the forecast of low shear could easily change. A large area of dry air and Saharan dust covers much of the eastern Caribbean, and may be a modest impediment to intensification. The primary difficulty for the storm lies in its close proximity to South America. The storm center may hug the coast through Saturday, limiting its development. The storm should bring heavy rains and winds near tropical storm force over the ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao on Friday. After that, there is a lot of uncertainty.
The computer models
The latest 8pm and 2am EDT computer model runs have a variety of solutions. The Canadian model continues to be very consistent and very gung-ho, developing 97L into a strong tropical storm on Saturday, south of Jamaica, then taking the storm into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. The NOGAPS model is also consistent, assuming a more southerly track will occur with no development due to close proximity to the South American coast. The GFS takes a weak tropical storm across the Dominican Republic on Saturday, then into the Bahamas. The GFDL has the same idea, but has a much stronger system that becomes a Category 1 hurricane in the Bahamas on Monday.
The run-to-run consistency of the GFDL has been poor, and both the GFDL and GFS have not done a good job forecasting the initial track of the storm so far. A more southerly track betwen Jamaica and Honduras like the Canadian and NOGAPS models are suggesting is probably more reasonable. If 97L can survive the next two days and separate from the South American coast--which it has at least a 50/50 chance of doing--I believe it will probably develop into a serious hurricane, as the GFDL and Canadian models have been suggesting. The track such a hurricane might take is highly uncertain, but it appears that Jamaica, Cuba, and the Yucatan would be at highest risk in the Caribbean. No part of the U.S. coast can be ruled out as a target in the longer term.
Got travel plans to the Caribbean this week? Don't change them yet. This appears to be an all-or-nothing kind of situation, and we could get nothing. It may not be until Saturday that we have a reasonable idea if this storm will be a major threat.
Beach Fanatic
Ditto on the windshear getting it. My vacation was crap last year thanks to Katrina
Surley it won't happen again this year. Go away Invest 97!
Surley it won't happen again this year. Go away Invest 97!SoWal ExpertAuthor
Tropical Depression Five forms
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:53 PM EDT on August 24, 2006
The Hurricane Hunters found a closed circulation and surface winds of 35 mph in the tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles, so this system is now Tropical Depression Five. Here's the 3:30pm EDT statement from NHC:
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the tropical wave moving westward through the Windward Islands has developed a closed wind circulation...and advisories on either a tropical depression or tropical storm will be initiated at 5 PM AST. Maximum winds at this time appear to be just below tropical storm strength...but it is possible that stronger winds may be observed prior to advisory time.
The new center that developed 100 miles north of the South American coast this morning is beginning to consolidate, with a new line of intense thunderstorms developing to the south of the center. This new spiral band joins the older spiral band to the east, which has brought wind gusts as high as 51 mph to the Islands today. It is clear that this will be Tropical Storm Ernesto in short order.
Current conditions in the islands
Barbados reported sustained winds of 32 mph at 5am this morning, and wind gusts as high as 51 mph. Togabo had wind gusts to 36 mph, and sustained winds of 33 mph with wind gusts to 43 mph were observed on St. Lucia. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 6:30am EDT shows a large area of 35 mph winds to the north of the center. Radar from Martinique shows the heavy bands of rain spreading over the islands. Winds on Martinique have gusted to 35 mph so far today.
Wind shear
Upper level winds out of the west are creating about 5-10 knots of wind shear over the center, which is not significantly inhibiting development. The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm. The evolution of the shear pattern over the past 24 hours has matched what the GFS has said would happen, so this gives me confidence that the shear forecast is correct, at least for the next day. This system does have the potential to become a hurricane by early next week.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:53 PM EDT on August 24, 2006
The Hurricane Hunters found a closed circulation and surface winds of 35 mph in the tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles, so this system is now Tropical Depression Five. Here's the 3:30pm EDT statement from NHC:
Reports from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the tropical wave moving westward through the Windward Islands has developed a closed wind circulation...and advisories on either a tropical depression or tropical storm will be initiated at 5 PM AST. Maximum winds at this time appear to be just below tropical storm strength...but it is possible that stronger winds may be observed prior to advisory time.
The new center that developed 100 miles north of the South American coast this morning is beginning to consolidate, with a new line of intense thunderstorms developing to the south of the center. This new spiral band joins the older spiral band to the east, which has brought wind gusts as high as 51 mph to the Islands today. It is clear that this will be Tropical Storm Ernesto in short order.
Current conditions in the islands
Barbados reported sustained winds of 32 mph at 5am this morning, and wind gusts as high as 51 mph. Togabo had wind gusts to 36 mph, and sustained winds of 33 mph with wind gusts to 43 mph were observed on St. Lucia. A QuikSCAT satellite pass from 6:30am EDT shows a large area of 35 mph winds to the north of the center. Radar from Martinique shows the heavy bands of rain spreading over the islands. Winds on Martinique have gusted to 35 mph so far today.
Wind shear
Upper level winds out of the west are creating about 5-10 knots of wind shear over the center, which is not significantly inhibiting development. The shear is forecast to remain low through the next five days. There is a zone of very high shear to the system's north, but it is forecast to retreat to the west ahead of the developing storm. The evolution of the shear pattern over the past 24 hours has matched what the GFS has said would happen, so this gives me confidence that the shear forecast is correct, at least for the next day. This system does have the potential to become a hurricane by early next week.
Beach Lover
TD 5 appears that it will obtain Tropical Storm strength. There appears to be some disagreement in the models as to whether the dry air associated with an upper level low west of TD 5 will give way. If it doesn't the upper level winds will be unfavorable for significant development. By this time tomorrow we should have a better idea if TD 5 will survive and survive. If it does survive, look out GOM.
Tropicwatch
Tropicwatch
brain
Uhhh.
SoWal Insider
Uhhh.
Not looking good at all...
Skunky
Geez, I hope the August 29th Katrina anniversary will not be marked by contraflow or worse
Beach Fanatic
:boxing: A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words
So true
SoWal ExpertAuthor
The latest models above.
Beach Fanatic
Heading for Texas maybe? SmilingJoe- I'm remembering that AccuWeather forecast you posted earlier that showed a high probability for hurricane strikes along the Texas coast this year.
Beach Lover
TD 5 is looking better today and there is a possibility of conditions becoming more favorable for further development. It all depends on the upper level low west of it moving away from TD 5 or weakening.
Tropicwatch
Tropicwatch
brain
GFDL is usually the most reliable but, let's hope it is wrong about this one. The models have been all over with TD 5. The good thing is that this system is moving a very good clip, whereas last year's Gulf systems just sort of decided to do a sit and spin--sucking in all of the hot and moist energy the Gulf has to offer.
SoWal ExpertAuthor
Come on blue line!
Skunky
Damn. That is what I have to say. Trying to reason with hurricane season...
Beach Lover
The discussion this morning on Ernesto is not very comforting. Here is an excerpt from that discussion.
"ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO."
Bummer!
Tropicwatch
"ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO."
Bummer!
Tropicwatch
SoWal ExpertAuthor
Lets move the discussion to the new thread titled, "storms - Ernesto," so that everyone knows what we are talking about.
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