Storms - Ernesto

A little more detail of the GFDL model (red line on the top map).

The discussion this morning on Ernesto is not very comforting. Here is an excerpt from that discussion.

"ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM WATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO."

Bummer!
Tropicwatch

from invest 97L thread

Holy cow! Would you look at the 11:00 am updated map?

That is horrible.

Thanks for the update on Ernesto. We are planning to come to Inlet Beach next weekend, so this is informative. We will check back later to see how Ernesto is progressing.

Here's a good tracking program with online updating/plotting, forecast, strike probabilities and historical data....as well a preparedness 'stuff'...think it
costs about 20 bucks...

http://www.hurricanesoftware.com/

The Hurricane Hunters found a strengthening Tropical Storm Ernesto this morning. Their final report at 5:30am EDT had a pressure of 997mb, good enough for 50 mph winds at the surface. Water vapor satellite loops show a large upper level low forming over the western Caribbean, and this low is moving westward at nearly the same speed as Ernesto. Counterclockwise flow of air around the upper low is causing 15-20 knots of shear over Ernesto, and this can be seen in the water vapor loop and visible satellite loop causing a flattening of the clouds on the west side of the storm. However, the overall appearance of Ernesto on satellite imagery is slowly improving, with upper-level outflow developing on the east side, and more low-level spiral bands forming. Long range radar animations from Puerto Rico show these spiral bands. Rain amount of 1-3 inches have fallen across the island so far today, with isolated totals as high as 8 inches. As long as Ernesto does not grow any closer to the upper level low to his west, slow intensification should occur the remainder of today.

As Ernesto passes south of Haiti today, the mountainous southwestern peninsula could experience life-threatening flash floods. This is common in this part of Haiti, even for modest tropical storms. Deforestation of the hillsides has left them little protection from floodwaters.


Figure 1. Current storm total rain in Puerto Rico.

The intensity forecast
The latest 06 GMT (2am EDT) model runs are in, and they again portray a conflicting picture of what may happen. Two of the four major global models--UKMET and GFS--dissipate or severely weaken the storm by Monday. However, the other two major models, the NOGAPS and GFDL, foresee a major hurricane in the Gulf that hits the Florida Panhandle on Friday. The Canadian model takes a major hurricane to the Louisiana coast on Friday. It appears that the two models poo-pooing Ernesto--the UKMET and GFS--are not doing a good job initializing the storm, and this is causing an overly optimistic weakening. Ernesto is holding his own again the shear, and is much stronger today than these models were predicting in their runs yesterday. The NHC official forecast of a continued slow intensification into a Category 1 hurricane by Monday seems like a reasonable one. After that, an explosive deepening phase into a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane is certainly plausible, given the very warm waters and low wind shear forecast to develop. However, keep in mind that our computer models are very poor at forecasting the behavior of upper-level lows in the tropics, and the upper low to the west of Ernesto could easily be in a different location and bring significant shear to the system. In addition, intensity forecasts more than 48 hours out are very unreliable. Witness some of the intensity forecasts for Debby made two and three days ago, which called for her to be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane today. Today, Debby is a tropical depression on the verge of dissipation. With all that said, I believe that Ernesto will be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico at some point.

Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba are going to get a pounding from Ernesto as he approaches hurricane strength Sunday and Monday. Washed out roads, downed power lines and trees, and minor roof damage will be common in those islands. Ernesto is under too much shear and does not have enough time to intensify into more than a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane before affecting those islands, and the full force of Ernesto is likely to be reserved for the U.S. Gulf Coast. Those of you with plans to be in Cancun or Cozumel can expect a day or so of airport closures due to high winds between Monday night and Tuesday night.

The track forecast
As Ernesto crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will be swinging across the eastern U.S. and should pull the storm on a more northerly track. Most of the models are showing that this trough will be strong enough to bring the storm all the way to the coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, the trough may not be strong enough to do this, and Ernesto could get stuck in the Gulf for a week, potentially heading westwards towards Texas as a new ridge of high pressure builds in. A subsequent trough could then turn the storm northwards into the coast at some later time. The UKMET model and GFS model prefer this solution. At this point, there is not enough information to say which solution is most likely, and residents from Texas to the Florida Keys need to be prepared for this storm to affect them.

The next system?
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin came off the coast of Africa yesterday is currently over the Cape Verde Islands. Some of the computer models forecast that this wave will develop, but this is very unlikely for at least the next three days. The Saharan Air Layer analysis is showing a large amount of dry air spiraling into the center of this wave. There are currently no other threat areas to be concerned with. In the long range, the GFS is forecasting a very busy first week of September, with two or more tropical storms developing between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

looks like a hurricane party may be in order, no???

Who would party in the face of a major loss other than those who have nothing to lose? We laughed about hurricane parties when we lived in NOLA, but we were students then, so it would have no impact on our lives.

Thanks to all keeping us posted. We are trying to be prepared.
We are watching and waiting.

Check this out. You can clearly see the storm. But, remember the wave height is more toward the North East Quadrant.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_glbl.html

Ernesto

Well, I may be staying in New Orleans in the hospital for this one! If so, I will make regular updates on the proceedings. Really and truly, Category 2 or less doesn't worry me too much. Hopefully Ernesto will be a weak little storm.

Well, I may be staying in New Orleans in the hospital for this one! If so, I will make regular updates on the proceedings. Really and truly, Category 2 or less doesn't worry me too much. Hopefully Ernesto will be a weak little storm.

good luck to you skunky - will be thinking about you, and trying to stay up to date, i go back to work monday, and the hospital won't let me access sowal - what meanies !!

Yeah, everyone keep us "Yankees" updated on this. We'll be glued to the tv.
Take care ~

A co-worker of mine is supposed to be coming down next weekend to the Orange Beach/Gulf Shores area next Saturday for a week. This storm might just rain on her parade!

Ernesto jumps towards Hispanolia

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:18 PM EDT on August 26, 2006

The Hurricane Hunters left Ernesto at 7:30pm EDT this evening, and found that the center had jumped about 50 miles east-northeast of the previous center. This sort of center reformation is common in strengthening tropical storms subject to significant wind shear, and we should not be surprised if another center shift occurs before the shear finally starts to decrease Sunday afternoon.

The new center position is bad news for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which will now be subject to torrential flooding rains. Considerable loss of life may occur in Haiti, where deforestation will allow flood waters to rampage unchecked down the barren hillsides of the nation's rugged terrain. The new center position is also bad news for Cuba, whose entire length will now get a pounding from Ernesto.

The new center position is good news for the U.S., since Ernesto's closer approach to Cuba and Hispanolia will keep the storm weaker than it otherwise would have been. In the past few hours, the cloud pattern on infrared satellite imagery has gotten more fragmented, which may be due to storm starting to struggle due to interaction with the island of Hispanolia. It could also be a temporary adjustment due to reorganization of the storm around the new center, or an increase in wind shear, which is still a substantial 15-20 knots.

The forecast
The new set of model runs show more agreement that Ernesto will make it to the Gulf Coast by Friday as a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane. All four major global models are forecasting a landfall between Louisiana and Florida by the end of the week, so the threat to Texas appears lower now. It is still possible that Ernesto could stall shortly before landfall and assume an unpredictable path, however. The GFS model's solution of bringing Ernesto over Key West and inland farther north near Tampa appears unrealistic, due to the failure of the model to put the surface center in the same place as the center at mid levels of the atmosphere.

Next update
The next Hurricane Hunter mission into Ernesto is at 2am EDT Sunday morning. I'll have an update in the morning. I apologize for my late update tonight; a thunderstorm took out my Internet service all afternoon and evening.

Jeff Masters

P.S., for those of you on slow dial-up connections, try the "lite" version of my blog--no comments, only one ad, and no links on the page:

http://www.wund.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Looks like Tarpon Springs is ground zero du jour. Also Jacksonville or Savannah on the back end. SOWAL and NOLA are looking better:roll:

Looks like Tarpon Springs is ground zero du jour. Also Jacksonville or Savannah on the back end. SOWAL and NOLA are looking better:roll:

Sorry but ...

At least we have somewhere to evacuate!

Sorry but ...

At least we have somewhere to evacuate!

I hear ya.

The latest forecast tracks are definitely better news for NW Florida. Which is fine with me. Unfortunately the move in tracks are in anticipation of a frontal system over the rockies moving east which is forecast to erode the high pressure area over N. Florida. If this does not happen, all bets are off.

Tropicwatch

I hear ya.

I know! :shock:

I saw this newest path on the fancy maps from a navy source, someone posted yesterday, prior to any other charts showing this.

Please rememeber, this far out, the center of the storm is likely to hit anywhere in that big cone which cover our area too. You better not drop your guard just yet.

Hurricane Ernesto smashes Haiti; Cuba and Florida next

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:48 AM EDT on August 27, 2006

Ernesto is now a hurricane, the first hurricane of the 2006 season. This first hurricane of season appears likely to do something the Hurricane Season of 2005 can't boast of--get its name retired. Ernesto is delivering a deadly blow to Haiti, and Cuba and Florida are next in line. The 6am Hurricane Hunter eye report found surface winds of 75 mph, good enough for upgrading the storm to a hurricane. The pressure fall has only been an unspectacular 2 mb in the past 12 hours, but the improvement in satellite appearance has been spectacular. An eye is now clearly visible on infrared satellite imagery, and upper-level outflow channels have opened to the north and south. Wind shear has fallen to 5-10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) has developed over Ernesto, a highly favorable situation for strengthening.

The eye of Ernesto will pass just south of or over the southwestern tip of Haiti today, pounding that impoverished nation with hurricane force winds and rains of up to 20 inches. I expect the death toll will be in the hundreds.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential for the Caribbean. Value of over 90 kJ/m^2 are commonly associated with rapid deepening phases of hurricanes.

The intensity forecast
The upper level winds have calmed down significantly in the past 12 hours, and the low-shear environment with an upper-level anticyclone is expected to remain for the duration of Ernesto's life. Furthermore, Ernesto is over waters of 30-31 C (86-88 F), and these waters warm up to nearly 90F in the narrow channel between Jamaica and Cuba. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the total heat content available to fuel rapid intensification is high. In fact, the highest heat content waters anywhere in the Atlantic, 120 kJ/cm^2, are found here. Anything over 90 kJ/cm^2 are considered high enough to fuel rapid intensification, and I expect Ernesto will be a Category 2 hurricane when it hits Cuba.

Once Ernesto encounters Cuba, it should go down at least one Category in strength. The eastern end of Cuba is very rugged and will interfere with the storm's circulation. Exactly how long Ernesto spends over Cuba will be critical in determining what kind of blow the Florida Keys will receive. Ernesto will most likely emerge from Cuba into the Florida Straights as a tropical storm. The extremely warm waters with high heat content in the Florida Straights should fuel rapid intensification once more, after a 12-hour reorganization period. I expect the order for visitors to evacuate the Lower Keys will be given this afternoon, the 7th evacuation order for the Keys in the past 3 years. I think it is unlikely Ernesto could affect the Keys as anything stronger than a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. A hit as a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane is more likely. If Ernesto spends another day or two traversing the warm waters along the west cost of Florida, then it could grow to a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane. Probably the best scenario would be to have Ernesto pop off Cuba and proceed straight north to the Everglades, spending very little time over water. This might allow Ernesto to affect Florida only as a tropical storm.

The track forecast
The models have come into better alignment now. They unanimously predict a stronger trough of low pressure than originally forecast will act to pull Ernesto northwards across Florida, and then northeastwards out to sea. The exact highest risk Florida landfall is difficult to pin down so far in advance, and everywhere from Miami to Pensacola is at risk. It appears now that New Orleans can breathe easy, as Ernesto should miss that city by a wide margin. Residents of North Carolina should be alert, as Ernesto may brush the Outer Banks after traversing Florida.

The storm surge forecast
The waters along the west coast of Florida are very shallow, and extend out far into the Gulf of Mexico. This creates an ideal environment for a large storm surge to build, and storm surge heights over 10 feet are likely if Ernesto comes ashore as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane along the west coast of Florida. If Ernesto takes a track parallel to the coast and just offshore, a large storm surge could affect a very long portion of the Florida coast, causing immense damage.

Next update
The hurricane hunters have left Ernesto, and the next Hurricane Hunter mission into Ernesto is at 2pm EDT this afternoon. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight, so we'll have our first set of higher-reliability model runs Monday morning. The NOAA P-3 gets its first action Monday morning, and will fly their SFMR instrument that measures surface winds over the entire area. I'll have an update this afternoon when new model runs and Hurricane Hunter information becomes available.

JeffMasters lite
For those of you on slow dial-up comments, try the "lite" version of my blog, http://www.wund.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Jeff Masters

Not liking that 11 a.m. track. SoWal here we come? :shock: :shock: :shock: