A couple days ago I happened to be reading an article in the Atlanta Journal regarding the market in Panama City. There was a quote from Janet Roan, a local (PC, not Atl) real estate agent - "Now is the time to buy. It's a buyer's market." But she says, "If you are looking to buy something to flip it, don't even try it right now."
The catch? That article was from April 16, 2006.
There was another guy who had put contracts on 3 units in Panama City towers, pre-construction, each in the low 200k range. The article says the prices had tripled and then fell back but were still above his contract price. He said at the time he still expected to be able to sell at a comfortable profit although they were not yet completed. He was worried at the time that they may be overdeveloping the Panama City Beach area.
I'd like to see the AJC or some other organization do some follow up stories and talk to some of the same people interviewed previously. What does that agent think now? Did that guy close on his 3 properties and sell them or did he walk from his deposits? Is he stuck in 3 condos, eating a monthly mortgage while taking in some little bit of rent?
Replies
388
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
I think they watch this site very closely. ;-)
bobby please forward that to the property appraiser's office
I think they watch this site very closely. ;-)
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Normal may have been a bad term. How about regular.RENAFU.
"The term regular can mean normal or obeying rules."
No mention of Baby boomers or Uhauls in that definition so I guess I mean Real estate Normal.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Is that Like a DILLIGAF?
RENAFU.
Is that Like a DILLIGAF?
Edited
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
Since we're discussing finding the bottom:
"Regular" as in "unconstipated."
.
Normal may have been a bad term. How about regular.
Since we're discussing finding the bottom:
"Regular" as in "unconstipated."
.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
You are not human!
Since we're discussing finding the bottom:
"Regular" as in "unconstipated."
.
You are not human!
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
It looks to me that 2008 won't be the year that we hit the bottom,but when the bottom truly drops out of the market.
Just check out some of these stats:
Sowal in this example equals south of 98 along 30-a and the lovely neighborhood of Point Washington.
Sowal
# of homes,condos,and townhomes for sale = 1,645
# of homes,condos,and townhomes sold in 2007= 415
At this rate, it will take 3.9 years to sell what is currently advertised in the mls.
#of residential lots for sale=1200
# of lots sold in 2007= 180
At this rate, it will take 6.7 years to sell the lots in mls.
In a traditional real estate market, a healthy inventory is about a 5% vacancy rate with a turnover every 6 months.
Walton County stats:
What about foreclosures?
Last year there were 721 foreclosures in Walton county. The first step to foreclosure is a lis pendens filed with the Clerk of Court.
In January of 2006, there were 20 lis pendens filed.
In January of 2007, there were 47 lis pendens filed.
January of 2008? 147 lis pendens were filed.
If the market keeps up like this, it appears Walton County will be headed towards a record 1800 foreclosures this year.
I get tired of people blaming the poor subprime borrowers for the mortgage mess. What do the upcoming foreclosures look like?
Remember, a lis pendens is a form that can be filed by a contractor,bank, of homeowner's association when a property owner has fallen behind on the payments.
Here is a snapshot of some of the properties that have entered this first stage of foreclosure in just the month of January 2008:
1 Sandprints condo
2 Windswept
1 Ariel dunes condo
1 bay club of Sandestin
1 Dunes of Seagrove
1 Frangista Beach townhome
13 lots in Old Seagrove
2 Beach side Villas Condo
1 Rosemary Beach
2 Grayton Cove
1 Majestic Sun
1 Botany Bayou
1 Gulf Pines
1 Preserve at Grayton
1 Lakeside at Blue Mountain
1 Magnolia cottages by the sea
1 old house in Seacrest
3 at Watercolor
1 at Edgewater beach
1 lot at Beach Highlands
2 at Summer's Edge
1 at Hammock Bay
2 at Maravilla Condo
1 at Emerald Hill
2 at Watersound
1 at Forest lakes
2 at Surfside Condo
1 at Preserve Place
1 at Adagio
1 at Magnolia Cottage
1 at Topsail Village
1 at Preserve at Grayton Beach
1 at Gulf View Heights
1 at Old Florida Village
1 at Cypress Dunes
1 at Luau in Sandestin
1 at Gulf Trace
1 at Magnolia Dune
1 at Melodia
1 at Hachee shores
1 at Cerulean Place (watercolor?)
1 at cypress breeze
These people are not subprime borrowers, they are people who have given up on there investments. If you went through the records like I did you might be shocked how many people you might know who are walking away.
Want to know what your property is worth?
Try finding comparables for your property from the year 2000 and add a modest 3% for each year to obtain a good asking price for your property but be prepared to compete with the HUGE inventory out there owned by banks and distressed and over extended buyers.
By the way, I am a licensed realtor in the State of Florida. "Now is a great time to buy!" Please excuse the typos
It looks to me that 2008 won't be the year that we hit the bottom,but when the bottom truly drops out of the market.
Just check out some of these stats:
Sowal in this example equals south of 98 along 30-a and the lovely neighborhood of Point Washington.
Sowal
# of homes,condos,and townhomes for sale = 1,645
# of homes,condos,and townhomes sold in 2007= 415
At this rate, it will take 3.9 years to sell what is currently advertised in the mls.
#of residential lots for sale=1200
# of lots sold in 2007= 180
At this rate, it will take 6.7 years to sell the lots in mls.
In a traditional real estate market, a healthy inventory is about a 5% vacancy rate with a turnover every 6 months.
Walton County stats:
What about foreclosures?
Last year there were 721 foreclosures in Walton county. The first step to foreclosure is a lis pendens filed with the Clerk of Court.
In January of 2006, there were 20 lis pendens filed.
In January of 2007, there were 47 lis pendens filed.
January of 2008? 147 lis pendens were filed.
If the market keeps up like this, it appears Walton County will be headed towards a record 1800 foreclosures this year.
I get tired of people blaming the poor subprime borrowers for the mortgage mess. What do the upcoming foreclosures look like?
Remember, a lis pendens is a form that can be filed by a contractor,bank, of homeowner's association when a property owner has fallen behind on the payments.
Here is a snapshot of some of the properties that have entered this first stage of foreclosure in just the month of January 2008:
1 Sandprints condo
2 Windswept
1 Ariel dunes condo
1 bay club of Sandestin
1 Dunes of Seagrove
1 Frangista Beach townhome
13 lots in Old Seagrove
2 Beach side Villas Condo
1 Rosemary Beach
2 Grayton Cove
1 Majestic Sun
1 Botany Bayou
1 Gulf Pines
1 Preserve at Grayton
1 Lakeside at Blue Mountain
1 Magnolia cottages by the sea
1 old house in Seacrest
3 at Watercolor
1 at Edgewater beach
1 lot at Beach Highlands
2 at Summer's Edge
1 at Hammock Bay
2 at Maravilla Condo
1 at Emerald Hill
2 at Watersound
1 at Forest lakes
2 at Surfside Condo
1 at Preserve Place
1 at Adagio
1 at Magnolia Cottage
1 at Topsail Village
1 at Preserve at Grayton Beach
1 at Gulf View Heights
1 at Old Florida Village
1 at Cypress Dunes
1 at Luau in Sandestin
1 at Gulf Trace
1 at Magnolia Dune
1 at Melodia
1 at Hachee shores
1 at Cerulean Place (watercolor?)
1 at cypress breeze
These people are not subprime borrowers, they are people who have given up on there investments. If you went through the records like I did you might be shocked how many people you might know who are walking away.
Want to know what your property is worth?
Try finding comparables for your property from the year 2000 and add a modest 3% for each year to obtain a good asking price for your property but be prepared to compete with the HUGE inventory out there owned by banks and distressed and over extended buyers.
By the way, I am a licensed realtor in the State of Florida. "Now is a great time to buy!" Please excuse the typos
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
Thanks for the info Joe.
You're a licensed realtor and saying "Now is a great time to buy."
Would you be so bold as to share your "buyer's catch phrases" for each of the years 2004, 2005 and 2006?
.
By the way, I am a licensed realtor in the State of Florida. "Now is a great time to buy!" Please excuse the typos
Thanks for the info Joe.
You're a licensed realtor and saying "Now is a great time to buy."
Would you be so bold as to share your "buyer's catch phrases" for each of the years 2004, 2005 and 2006?
.
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
I added that famous National Association of Realtors catchphrase in for a bit of humor. If you knew me you would know I'm not too keen on the NAR cool-aid.
Thanks for the info Joe.
You're a licensed realtor and saying "Now is a great time to buy."
Would you be so bold as to share your "buyer's catch phrases" for each of the years 2004, 2005 and 2006?
.
I added that famous National Association of Realtors catchphrase in for a bit of humor. If you knew me you would know I'm not too keen on the NAR cool-aid.
Beach Lover
Re: Calling the bottom!
I'm an eternal optimist but sometimes the news is just so damn depressing.
In announcing Project Lifeline today, a question was posed to Treasury Secretary Paulson, "Is the worst over?"
His response, "The worst is just beginning."
He was specifically referring to subprime mortgage resets. Read the whole thing here http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/523f5bf0-d9a6-11dc-bd4d-0000779fd2ac.html
I'm an eternal optimist but sometimes the news is just so damn depressing.
In announcing Project Lifeline today, a question was posed to Treasury Secretary Paulson, "Is the worst over?"
His response, "The worst is just beginning."
He was specifically referring to subprime mortgage resets. Read the whole thing here http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/523f5bf0-d9a6-11dc-bd4d-0000779fd2ac.html
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
I see he got my memo.
.
I'm an eternal optimist but sometimes the news is just so damn depressing.
In announcing Project Lifeline today, a question was posed to Treasury Secretary Paulson, "Is the worst over?"
His response, "The worst is just beginning."
He was specifically referring to subprime mortgage resets. Read the whole thing here http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/523f5bf0-d9a6-11dc-bd4d-0000779fd2ac.html
I see he got my memo.
.
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
You mean you didn't believe this gem?
------------------------------------------------
January 10, 2007 - After bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2006, existing-home sales are forecast to gradually rise through 2007 and into 2008, while new-home sales should turnaround by summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors.
David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said annual totals for existing-home sales will be fairly comparable between 2006 and 2007. "We have to keep in mind that we were still in boom conditions during the first quarter of 2006 with a high sales volume and double-digit price appreciation," he said. "We are starting 2007 from a relatively low point, so even with a gradual improvement in sales it'll be pretty much of a wash in terms of annual totals. The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."
-----------------------------------------------
or this one?
------------------------------------------------
May 8, 2007 -“If it weren’t for a favorable economic backdrop, housing would probably have a hard landing,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, in a statement. “As it is, we see this as a soft landing with home sales rising gradually in the second half of the year and prices recovering a bit later.”
------------------------------------------------
How can you call yourself a Realtor???
.
I added that famous National Association of Realtors catchphrase in for a bit of humor. If you knew me you would know I'm not too keen on the NAR cool-aid.
You mean you didn't believe this gem?
------------------------------------------------
January 10, 2007 - After bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2006, existing-home sales are forecast to gradually rise through 2007 and into 2008, while new-home sales should turnaround by summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors.
David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said annual totals for existing-home sales will be fairly comparable between 2006 and 2007. "We have to keep in mind that we were still in boom conditions during the first quarter of 2006 with a high sales volume and double-digit price appreciation," he said. "We are starting 2007 from a relatively low point, so even with a gradual improvement in sales it'll be pretty much of a wash in terms of annual totals. The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."
-----------------------------------------------
or this one?
------------------------------------------------
May 8, 2007 -“If it weren’t for a favorable economic backdrop, housing would probably have a hard landing,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, in a statement. “As it is, we see this as a soft landing with home sales rising gradually in the second half of the year and prices recovering a bit later.”
------------------------------------------------
How can you call yourself a Realtor???
.
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
Shel,
I thought even you could understand that one can be a member of a group and not exactly follow the party line.
Shel,
I thought even you could understand that one can be a member of a group and not exactly follow the party line.
Edited
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
Is it kinda like being Dr.Bennell pretending to be a 'Pod Person' in Invasion of the Body Snatchers? :shock:
.
Shel,
I thought even you could understand that one can be a member of a group and not exactly follow the party line.
Is it kinda like being Dr.Bennell pretending to be a 'Pod Person' in Invasion of the Body Snatchers? :shock:
.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
So - I haven't posted here in a very long time - but I do recall a thread some time ago where people were calling the bottom - or at least the right time to buy again... and I said Feb 2009. I still stand by that, and plan to buy back in at that time. I bought a property at Rosemary in 2003, and sold it in a "fire sale" for over 150% of what similar lots are going for today. I did a 1031 into a few really boring (but solvent) rentals in Augusta, GA and I plan to sell those in the fall/winter of 2008 (do another 1031) and buy a condo on 30A in Feb 2009 per my plan. I hate to be right all the time.. but damn....
So - I haven't posted here in a very long time - but I do recall a thread some time ago where people were calling the bottom - or at least the right time to buy again... and I said Feb 2009. I still stand by that, and plan to buy back in at that time. I bought a property at Rosemary in 2003, and sold it in a "fire sale" for over 150% of what similar lots are going for today. I did a 1031 into a few really boring (but solvent) rentals in Augusta, GA and I plan to sell those in the fall/winter of 2008 (do another 1031) and buy a condo on 30A in Feb 2009 per my plan. I hate to be right all the time.. but damn....
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
:shock: Crap! Did I sleep through 2008?
.
So - I haven't posted here in a very long time - but I do recall a thread some time ago where people were calling the bottom - or at least the right time to buy again... and I said Feb 2009. I hate to be right all the time.. but damn....
:shock: Crap! Did I sleep through 2008?
.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Where are you from? As much as I want you to go away, my life would not be the same without you! You are kind of like an addiction!
:shock: Crap! Did I sleep through 2008?
.
Where are you from? As much as I want you to go away, my life would not be the same without you! You are kind of like an addiction!
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Here was one of your quotes of another thread--
I bought in back in Jan and Feb at an average per share price of $70.11. Over 17% return in six months. Go Joe!!
I think Joe will go well over $100 per share even if land prices do fall as the speculators clear out. Most of the land they own is still on the books for their purchase price ($1-$2 PER ACRE!!!).
Given your knack for being right ;-), when does JOE hit $100?
So - I haven't posted here in a very long time - but I do recall a thread some time ago where people were calling the bottom - or at least the right time to buy again... and I said Feb 2009. I still stand by that, and plan to buy back in at that time. I bought a property at Rosemary in 2003, and sold it in a "fire sale" for over 150% of what similar lots are going for today. I did a 1031 into a few really boring (but solvent) rentals in Augusta, GA and I plan to sell those in the fall/winter of 2008 (do another 1031) and buy a condo on 30A in Feb 2009 per my plan. I hate to be right all the time.. but damn....
Here was one of your quotes of another thread--
I bought in back in Jan and Feb at an average per share price of $70.11. Over 17% return in six months. Go Joe!!
I think Joe will go well over $100 per share even if land prices do fall as the speculators clear out. Most of the land they own is still on the books for their purchase price ($1-$2 PER ACRE!!!).
Given your knack for being right ;-), when does JOE hit $100?
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Here was one of your quotes of another thread--Doh!
I bought in back in Jan and Feb at an average per share price of $70.11. Over 17% return in six months. Go Joe!!
I think Joe will go well over $100 per share even if land prices do fall as the speculators clear out. Most of the land they own is still on the books for their purchase price ($1-$2 PER ACRE!!!).
Given your knack for being right ;-), when does JOE hit $100?
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Shelly would it be safe to say that most folks here couldn't grab their bottom with both hands?
Shelly would it be safe to say that most folks here couldn't grab their bottom with both hands?
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Shelly would it be safe to say that most folks here couldn't grab their bottom with both hands?Maybe you could show us how...take a picture.
Beach Crab
Re: Calling the bottom!
What are the banks doing through all this? Many have said they are not in the real estate business. But it is big money's business to 'know' whats going on (OK, I know that's flamebait).
I've heard that carrying written off real estate on a banks books impairs their ability (by impacting required reserve percentages) to write new loans. When is this impact greatest- only when the bank chooses to sell at a loss, or does it impact them if they continue to own/carry the real estate on their books at it's original value?
Right now, at least in the higher end of the Sowal market, it seems to me that the banks are choosing to keep the real estate on their books (at the value of the original loan) rather than selling for <90% MLS and writing it off. There may be accounting factors relating to which quarter the bank posts losses in, and there may also be regional/loan value variables in play. Any thoughts?
One way to see if I am right would be to look at Lis pendens/foreclosures over time (say Q307, Q407, Q108) to see how many are still bank owned, and of those that were sold and have closed how the sales price compared to the MLS listed price/prior sale? To really understand the data it would help if it were sliced up according to whether the property in question was middle or high end, by single family, condo, and land.
Has anyone on this board done this?
What are the banks doing through all this? Many have said they are not in the real estate business. But it is big money's business to 'know' whats going on (OK, I know that's flamebait).
I've heard that carrying written off real estate on a banks books impairs their ability (by impacting required reserve percentages) to write new loans. When is this impact greatest- only when the bank chooses to sell at a loss, or does it impact them if they continue to own/carry the real estate on their books at it's original value?
Right now, at least in the higher end of the Sowal market, it seems to me that the banks are choosing to keep the real estate on their books (at the value of the original loan) rather than selling for <90% MLS and writing it off. There may be accounting factors relating to which quarter the bank posts losses in, and there may also be regional/loan value variables in play. Any thoughts?
One way to see if I am right would be to look at Lis pendens/foreclosures over time (say Q307, Q407, Q108) to see how many are still bank owned, and of those that were sold and have closed how the sales price compared to the MLS listed price/prior sale? To really understand the data it would help if it were sliced up according to whether the property in question was middle or high end, by single family, condo, and land.
Has anyone on this board done this?
Edited
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
Are you trying to reach a conclusion as to what % below loan value banks are accepting on foreclosed properties?
Are you trying to reach a conclusion as to what % below loan value banks are accepting on foreclosed properties?
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
We've been looking at property in the area for a few months-online and in person and from what I've heard (rumors included), seen on listing sheets and personally experienced (we have a contract pending on the west end of PCB that is a foreclosure) it looks like banks are "offering" about a 35-40% discount on average from what is on their books. The bank had been owner of record for about 9 months. We offered 2002 pricing.
Just my observation, but I am not in the real estate business and definitely don't have a first row seat-besides the fact that I skipped all the business classes in college in favor of beer on the campus lawn ;-) so I'll have to defer the analyzing to others more qualified!
We've been looking at property in the area for a few months-online and in person and from what I've heard (rumors included), seen on listing sheets and personally experienced (we have a contract pending on the west end of PCB that is a foreclosure) it looks like banks are "offering" about a 35-40% discount on average from what is on their books. The bank had been owner of record for about 9 months. We offered 2002 pricing.
Just my observation, but I am not in the real estate business and definitely don't have a first row seat-besides the fact that I skipped all the business classes in college in favor of beer on the campus lawn ;-) so I'll have to defer the analyzing to others more qualified!
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
It seems to depend on how long they have had it. I think you can expect about 25 to 35% off foreclosure asking price once they have had it awhile. They seem to hold firm in the beginning. I know one thing for sure. We are as busy as we have been in 2 years. Our goal for the year was a contract a week. We have written one every day this week! The office is crazy.
We've been looking at property in the area for a few months-online and in person and from what I've heard (rumors included), seen on listing sheets and personally experienced (we have a contract pending on the west end of PCB that is a foreclosure) it looks like banks are "offering" about a 35-40% discount on average from what is on their books. The bank had been owner of record for about 9 months. We offered 2002 pricing.
Just my observation, but I am not in the real estate business and definitely don't have a first row seat-besides the fact that I skipped all the business classes in college in favor of beer on the campus lawn ;-) so I'll have to defer the analyzing to others more qualified!
It seems to depend on how long they have had it. I think you can expect about 25 to 35% off foreclosure asking price once they have had it awhile. They seem to hold firm in the beginning. I know one thing for sure. We are as busy as we have been in 2 years. Our goal for the year was a contract a week. We have written one every day this week! The office is crazy.
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