A couple days ago I happened to be reading an article in the Atlanta Journal regarding the market in Panama City. There was a quote from Janet Roan, a local (PC, not Atl) real estate agent - "Now is the time to buy. It's a buyer's market." But she says, "If you are looking to buy something to flip it, don't even try it right now."
The catch? That article was from April 16, 2006.
There was another guy who had put contracts on 3 units in Panama City towers, pre-construction, each in the low 200k range. The article says the prices had tripled and then fell back but were still above his contract price. He said at the time he still expected to be able to sell at a comfortable profit although they were not yet completed. He was worried at the time that they may be overdeveloping the Panama City Beach area.
I'd like to see the AJC or some other organization do some follow up stories and talk to some of the same people interviewed previously. What does that agent think now? Did that guy close on his 3 properties and sell them or did he walk from his deposits? Is he stuck in 3 condos, eating a monthly mortgage while taking in some little bit of rent?
Replies
388Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
expect a mini frenzy as we approach the half off season...
expect a mini frenzy as we approach the half off season...
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
I think BobbyJ is right-even from the people I know, there's more doing and less talking about doing. And, in the interest of full disclosure, I have to say that we are going to have do some cosmetic work and also furnish it. Could we have gotten a BETTER STEAL somewhere someday? Maybe, but the house works well for our requirements, we like the location, love the beach access and carrying the mortgage won't give us a hernia. So, we're going to be happy and frolic in the sand and surf.
I think BobbyJ is right-even from the people I know, there's more doing and less talking about doing. And, in the interest of full disclosure, I have to say that we are going to have do some cosmetic work and also furnish it. Could we have gotten a BETTER STEAL somewhere someday? Maybe, but the house works well for our requirements, we like the location, love the beach access and carrying the mortgage won't give us a hernia. So, we're going to be happy and frolic in the sand and surf.
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
So did the bank accept your 2002 offer?
.
I think BobbyJ is right-even from the people I know, there's more doing and less talking about doing. And, in the interest of full disclosure, I have to say that we are going to have do some cosmetic work and also furnish it. Could we have gotten a BETTER STEAL somewhere someday? Maybe, but the house works well for our requirements, we like the location, love the beach access and carrying the mortgage won't give us a hernia. So, we're going to be happy and frolic in the sand and surf.
So did the bank accept your 2002 offer?
.
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
Yes, they did. However, it was certainly a hmmm...how to phrase this...."learning experience". :shock:
Yes, they did. However, it was certainly a hmmm...how to phrase this...."learning experience". :shock:
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
Please share.
.
Yes, they did. However, it was certainly a hmmm...how to phrase this...."learning experience". :shock:
Please share.
.
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
First let me say that I've been lurking on sowal for a couple of months and the fact that Shelly is responding to my posts makes me feel kinda flattered, kinda nervous. Whew, tread gently please, I'm new!
The bank was just a very nebulous presence...hard to pin down...hard to get answers and information. Getting to a contract stage was surprisingly painless--maybe it was a set-up, because actually getting someone-ANYONE-to sign off was like wrestling with an octopus.
First let me say that I've been lurking on sowal for a couple of months and the fact that Shelly is responding to my posts makes me feel kinda flattered, kinda nervous. Whew, tread gently please, I'm new!
The bank was just a very nebulous presence...hard to pin down...hard to get answers and information. Getting to a contract stage was surprisingly painless--maybe it was a set-up, because actually getting someone-ANYONE-to sign off was like wrestling with an octopus.
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
They must have been down the line a bit. Did you close already?
They must have been down the line a bit. Did you close already?
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
unsubstantiated rumor? history buff?
First let me say that I've been lurking on sowal for a couple of months and the fact that Shelly is responding to my posts makes me feel kinda flattered, kinda nervous. Whew, tread gently please, I'm new!I was at the Tom Thumb in Dune Allen a couple of weeks back and heard some people in the Cheez-Its section talking quietly. I overheard that Shelly has someone following him(her) at all times whispering in his(her) ear "You are but a (wo)man, you are but a (wo)man"
The bank was just a very nebulous presence...hard to pin down...hard to get answers and information. Getting to a contract stage was surprisingly painless--maybe it was a set-up, because actually getting someone-ANYONE-to sign off was like wrestling with an octopus.
unsubstantiated rumor? history buff?
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
I was at the Tom Thumb in Dune Allen a couple of weeks back and heard some people in the Cheez-Its section talking quietly. I overheard that Shelly has someone following him(her) at all times whispering in his(her) ear "You are but a (wo)man, you are but a (wo)man"
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
That would be Bobby J...he's been stalking me for quite some time.
.
I was at the Tom Thumb in Dune Allen a couple of weeks back and heard some people in the Cheez-Its section talking quietly. I overheard that Shelly has someone following him(her) at all times whispering in his(her) ear "You are but a (wo)man, you are but a (wo)man"
That would be Bobby J...he's been stalking me for quite some time.
.
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
Hi!
No need to be nervous...unless you're pushing Amway or Preconstruction Condos.
.
First let me say that I've been lurking on sowal for a couple of months and the fact that Shelly is responding to my posts makes me feel kinda flattered, kinda nervous. Whew, tread gently please, I'm new!
Hi!
No need to be nervous...unless you're pushing Amway or Preconstruction Condos.
.
Beach Comber
Re: Calling the bottom!
I couldn't log on last night?
Big sigh of relief--no Amway and my bank actually told me that a)they wouldn't close on a condo without some serious scrutinization and no preconstruction at all and b)if they did close on a condo, they automatically take 5% off the top of the appraisal. Never heard of that one, but that's what they said when we were getting the prequalification letter.
We have not closed yet, scheduled for about 2 weeks. We do have a signed contract now, so maybe it really will happen.
What does "down the line" mean-is it real estate speak, sowal speak or do I just not get out enough?
I couldn't log on last night?
Big sigh of relief--no Amway and my bank actually told me that a)they wouldn't close on a condo without some serious scrutinization and no preconstruction at all and b)if they did close on a condo, they automatically take 5% off the top of the appraisal. Never heard of that one, but that's what they said when we were getting the prequalification letter.
We have not closed yet, scheduled for about 2 weeks. We do have a signed contract now, so maybe it really will happen.
What does "down the line" mean-is it real estate speak, sowal speak or do I just not get out enough?
Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
"Down the Line" surfing lingo.... It meant bank has held for awhile.
I couldn't log on last night?
Big sigh of relief--no Amway and my bank actually told me that a)they wouldn't close on a condo without some serious scrutinization and no preconstruction at all and b)if they did close on a condo, they automatically take 5% off the top of the appraisal. Never heard of that one, but that's what they said when we were getting the prequalification letter.
We have not closed yet, scheduled for about 2 weeks. We do have a signed contract now, so maybe it really will happen.
What does "down the line" mean-is it real estate speak, sowal speak or do I just not get out enough?
"Down the Line" surfing lingo....
It meant bank has held for awhile.Beach Fanatic
Re: Calling the bottom!
You know you love it
That would be Bobby J...he's been stalking me for quite some time.
.
You know you love it
Beach Lover
Re: Calling the bottom!
If you believe that the current turmoil in the real estate market was caused by speculation fueled by lax lending standards, then you could conclude that the bottom will come as a result of the unwinding of these mortgages.
See the attached article...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/03/ccview103.xml
Here's my logic for how this relates to Walton County,
Assume this trend is similar for Florida mortgages. If peak adjustment period is March, and foreclosure proceedings start 120-150 days delinquent (depends on the mortgage agreement - could be sooner), these Option ARM's will be pinching homeowners in the June - July timeframe.
But summer rental income may afford these homeowners some time. Once the peak rental months end, the homeowners will simply walk away.
As a side note, I crossed paths with an old acquaintance yesterday and she shared with me that she was inches away from losing her home because she couldn't afford the mortgage payment (sub-prime Option ARM). She suggested she'll simply pack up and go when the time comes because "everyone else seems to be doing it." Although it's a sample size of 1, I think this is reflective of an enormous shift in people's attitudes toward foreclosure. The stigma is gone.
Therefore, September - October 2008 might be a good time to start looking for opportunities. Cash will be king.
If you believe that the current turmoil in the real estate market was caused by speculation fueled by lax lending standards, then you could conclude that the bottom will come as a result of the unwinding of these mortgages.
See the attached article...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/03/ccview103.xml
Here's my logic for how this relates to Walton County,
Assume this trend is similar for Florida mortgages. If peak adjustment period is March, and foreclosure proceedings start 120-150 days delinquent (depends on the mortgage agreement - could be sooner), these Option ARM's will be pinching homeowners in the June - July timeframe.
But summer rental income may afford these homeowners some time. Once the peak rental months end, the homeowners will simply walk away.
As a side note, I crossed paths with an old acquaintance yesterday and she shared with me that she was inches away from losing her home because she couldn't afford the mortgage payment (sub-prime Option ARM). She suggested she'll simply pack up and go when the time comes because "everyone else seems to be doing it." Although it's a sample size of 1, I think this is reflective of an enormous shift in people's attitudes toward foreclosure. The stigma is gone.
Therefore, September - October 2008 might be a good time to start looking for opportunities. Cash will be king.
Skunky
Re: Calling the bottom!
I wonder how long the ARM mess will linger. The foreclosure I am most familiar with (no, I am not being foreclosed upon) has an ARM that adjusts in 2012...well, it would have adjusted, anyway. I have no idea how common this flavor of mortgage was, but I guess it is possible that somebody might be able to scrape by for a few years then get whacked with an adjustment.
I wonder how long the ARM mess will linger. The foreclosure I am most familiar with (no, I am not being foreclosed upon) has an ARM that adjusts in 2012...well, it would have adjusted, anyway. I have no idea how common this flavor of mortgage was, but I guess it is possible that somebody might be able to scrape by for a few years then get whacked with an adjustment.
Skunky
Re: Calling the bottom!
So can we count on an increasing number of ARM adjustments in the near future for the SOWAL jumbos?
So can we count on an increasing number of ARM adjustments in the near future for the SOWAL jumbos?
SoWal Insider
Re: Calling the bottom!
Another monkey wrench was thrown into the system today with Fanny & Freddie essentially ending the era of "The Drive-By Appraisal."
"Seeking to head off the threat of lawsuits from Mr. Cuomo, the two government-sponsored providers of funding for mortgage loans agreed to a code of conduct due to take effect next Jan. 1. Because Fannie and Freddie are the dominant sources of funds for home loans, the code will become an effective standard for the industry.
The code bars lenders and their representatives from pressuring appraisers to supply inflated estimates of property values, which are widely viewed as an important contributor to the mortgage crisis. Appraisers have long complained that they risked losing business if they didn't appraise homes at values that would allow loans to be made.
Bank employees who are involved in making loans won't be allowed to choose appraisers. And lenders won't be able to make loans on the basis of appraisals from their own employees or from other companies they control.
The code also bars lenders from using appraisals ordered by mortgage brokers. The National Association of Mortgage Brokers said that rule could drive many brokers out of business. Officials of the trade group said appraisals ordered by brokers sometimes can be used for more than one potential lender, giving the consumer more flexibility. Under the new code, they said, consumers who use brokers might end up paying for two appraisals. Mr. Cuomo said he didn't believe the code would hurt brokers who follow "legitimate" practices.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120456185094007821.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
------------------------------
One surely might want to start "looking" after hurricane season, but it would be better to hold off on 'buying' until after a more honest appraisal system is put in place.
.
If you believe that the current turmoil in the real estate market was caused by speculation fueled by lax lending standards, then you could conclude that the bottom will come as a result of the unwinding of these mortgages.
See the attached article...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/03/ccview103.xml
Here's my logic for how this relates to Walton County,
Assume this trend is similar for Florida mortgages. If peak adjustment period is March, and foreclosure proceedings start 120-150 days delinquent (depends on the mortgage agreement - could be sooner), these Option ARM's will be pinching homeowners in the June - July timeframe.
But summer rental income may afford these homeowners some time. Once the peak rental months end, the homeowners will simply walk away.
As a side note, I crossed paths with an old acquaintance yesterday and she shared with me that she was inches away from losing her home because she couldn't afford the mortgage payment (sub-prime Option ARM). She suggested she'll simply pack up and go when the time comes because "everyone else seems to be doing it." Although it's a sample size of 1, I think this is reflective of an enormous shift in people's attitudes toward foreclosure. The stigma is gone.
Therefore, September - October 2008 might be a good time to start looking for opportunities. Cash will be king.
Another monkey wrench was thrown into the system today with Fanny & Freddie essentially ending the era of "The Drive-By Appraisal."
"Seeking to head off the threat of lawsuits from Mr. Cuomo, the two government-sponsored providers of funding for mortgage loans agreed to a code of conduct due to take effect next Jan. 1. Because Fannie and Freddie are the dominant sources of funds for home loans, the code will become an effective standard for the industry.
The code bars lenders and their representatives from pressuring appraisers to supply inflated estimates of property values, which are widely viewed as an important contributor to the mortgage crisis. Appraisers have long complained that they risked losing business if they didn't appraise homes at values that would allow loans to be made.
Bank employees who are involved in making loans won't be allowed to choose appraisers. And lenders won't be able to make loans on the basis of appraisals from their own employees or from other companies they control.
The code also bars lenders from using appraisals ordered by mortgage brokers. The National Association of Mortgage Brokers said that rule could drive many brokers out of business. Officials of the trade group said appraisals ordered by brokers sometimes can be used for more than one potential lender, giving the consumer more flexibility. Under the new code, they said, consumers who use brokers might end up paying for two appraisals. Mr. Cuomo said he didn't believe the code would hurt brokers who follow "legitimate" practices.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120456185094007821.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
------------------------------
One surely might want to start "looking" after hurricane season, but it would be better to hold off on 'buying' until after a more honest appraisal system is put in place.
.
Edited
Beach Lover
The bottom has arrived
Well it must be the official bottom because I just bought in.
PCB beachfront on a low floor (and I mean on the beach). Built in 2004/2005. About 1500 square feet finished out high end.
I predict nothing but up from this point forward.
Joking aside while I hope it is the bottom, I made the age old mistake of falling in love with a place and bought sooner than I planned.
Maybe still some downside but I am in. Its all about the view at happy hour!
Good luck to all,
Flyguy
Well it must be the official bottom because I just bought in.
PCB beachfront on a low floor (and I mean on the beach). Built in 2004/2005. About 1500 square feet finished out high end.
I predict nothing but up from this point forward.
Joking aside while I hope it is the bottom, I made the age old mistake of falling in love with a place and bought sooner than I planned.
Maybe still some downside but I am in.
Its all about the view at happy hour!Good luck to all,
Flyguy
Edited
SoWal Expert
Re: The bottom has arrived
Congratulations. What project?
Anyone in trouble with a PCB condo 3rd floor or up, Gulf front, ready to cut a deal, send me a pm.
Congratulations. What project?
Anyone in trouble with a PCB condo 3rd floor or up, Gulf front, ready to cut a deal, send me a pm.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
Re: The bottom has arrived
Congrats on the leap. I'm too chicken and will remain in lurk mode for a while yet.
Congrats on the leap. I'm too chicken and will remain in lurk mode for a while yet.
Beach Fanatic
Re: The bottom has arrived
It seems you are not alone. We have been slammed with offers and getting low on good priced inventory. Many buyers say they feel we are at bottom or close and they plan to enjoy and own for 10 plus years so they feel confident in the long haul of this area.
Well it must be the official bottom because I just bought in.
PCB beachfront on a low floor (and I mean on the beach). Built in 2004/2005. About 1500 square feet finished out high end.
I predict nothing but up from this point forward.
Joking aside while I hope it is the bottom, I made the age old mistake of falling in love with a place and bought sooner than I planned.
Maybe still some downside but I am in.
Good luck to all,
Flyguy
It seems you are not alone. We have been slammed with offers and getting low on good priced inventory. Many buyers say they feel we are at bottom or close and they plan to enjoy and own for 10 plus years so they feel confident in the long haul of this area.
Beach Lover
Re: The bottom has arrived
Thats how I feel. I waited until I got a great deal on exactly what I wanted. There may well be more downside but I did not want to miss the boat on this buying opportunity. And what a view!
Flyguy
It seems you are not alone. We have been slammed with offers and getting low on good priced inventory. Many buyers say they feel we are at bottom or close and they plan to enjoy and own for 10 plus years so they feel confident in the long haul of this area.
Thats how I feel. I waited until I got a great deal on exactly what I wanted. There may well be more downside but I did not want to miss the boat on this buying opportunity. And what a view!
Flyguy
Beach Fanatic
Re: The bottom has arrived
Congrats! Now enjoy!
Thats how I feel. I waited until I got a great deal on exactly what I wanted. There may well be more downside but I did not want to miss the boat on this buying opportunity. And what a view!
Flyguy
Congrats! Now enjoy!
Beach Fanatic
Re: The bottom has arrived
Good for you flyguy .... you've been very patient and you deserve it
Thats how I feel. I waited until I got a great deal on exactly what I wanted. There may well be more downside but I did not want to miss the boat on this buying opportunity. And what a view!
Flyguy
Good for you flyguy .... you've been very patient and you deserve it
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