Calling The Bottom

Re: The bottom has arrived

Congrats! Five years from now you are going to be kicking yourself for not buying two!

Well it must be the official bottom because I just
bought in.

PCB beachfront on a low floor (and I mean on the beach). Built in 2004/2005. About 1500 square feet finished out high end.

I predict nothing but up from this point forward.

Joking aside while I hope it is the bottom, I made the age old mistake of falling in love with a place and bought sooner than I planned.

Maybe still some downside but I am in. Its all about the view at happy hour!

Good luck to all,
Flyguy

Re: The bottom has arrived

Congrats! Five years from now you are going to be kicking yourself for not buying two!

How many have you bought?


.

Re: The bottom has arrived

How many have you bought?


.

FFF is about quality, not quantity. Trust me.

Re: The bottom has arrived

You know, I have a nice home on the beach, so I am now just looking for vacant land with beach views and high elevation. Bobby J keeps me posted when something pops up that fits my select criteria. I am looking for good lots close to seaside, along 30-A, with water views and beach access that are outside of the large developments. You can bet that when that right old seagrove property comes available, I am going to buy it! With amend 1's passage protecting me from the county increasing property taxes more than 10% a year, I plan on buying two lots this year. But remember, I don't buy to flip and like to hold on to my property 5-10 years. However when I find a lot that will allow you to put a trailer on it, you will be the first person I will call. If I wanted a condo, now is a good time to buy one. I just think you need to be asking alot of questions and making certain you speak with HOA President about lawsuits, assesments and if there are any pending issues with the building. I like the construction of all the new condo's being built, and feel confident most are going survive the storms with minimal to no damage.

Re: The bottom has arrived

You know, I have a nice home on the beach, so I am now just looking for vacant land with beach views and high elevation. Bobby J keeps me posted when something pops up that fits my select criteria. I am looking for good lots close to seaside, along 30-A, with water views and beach access that are outside of the large developments. You can bet that when that right old seagrove property comes available, I am going to buy it! With amend 1's passage protecting me from the county increasing property taxes more than 10% a year, I plan on buying two lots this year. But remember, I don't buy to flip and like to hold on to my property 5-10 years. However when I find a lot that will allow you to put a trailer on it, you will be the first person I will call. If I wanted a condo, now is a good time to buy one. I just think you need to be asking alot of questions and making certain you speak with HOA President about lawsuits, assesments and if there are any pending issues with the building. I like the construction of all the new condo's being built, and feel confident most are going survive the storms with minimal to no damage.

So you recommend others buy condos now lest they'll be kicking themselves in 5 years, yet you wouldn't buy them yourself....so can we conclude that you're into self-flagellation?


.

Re: The bottom has arrived

If the bottom has arrived, why are sellers still dropping prices?

Re: The bottom has arrived

If the bottom has arrived, why are sellers still dropping prices?

Because it hasn't!

Don't worry, it's still a great time to buy! :roll:

Re: The bottom has arrived

If the bottom has arrived, why are sellers still dropping prices?

Great point!! What i find interesting is the speed w/ which properties come on and off the mls.

Re: The bottom has arrived

I sure have been getting alot of emails from a certain real estate company announcing many sales of homes and lots in WC.

Re: The bottom has arrived

If the bottom has arrived, why are sellers still dropping prices?

Does this mean once we are at the bottom sellers will stop dropping prices? IMO, sellers are getting a clearer picture of what it will take to sell their property. We are just going through the process.

When a property sells does that mean it was at the bottom? I have given up trying to figure it all out. We are very busy and very grateful that the market is moving. The end.....

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

SJ--thanks for the work on those numbers. I believe you guys when you say it is buzzing. I have also heard that sales pick up typically around spring break. So, is comparing first qtr 08, to 4th qtr 07 really accurate?

Re: The bottom has arrived

So you recommend others buy condos now lest they'll be kicking themselves in 5 years, yet you wouldn't buy them yourself....so can we conclude that you're into self-flagellation?


.

Shelton, there are a lot of good condo buys available. But personally I don't want any more toilets to keep up with. If I did not own a condo, I would be buying one now. What is rapidly disappearing along 30-A is ocean/beach view lots outside the large developments. Once the mandated build out properties have homes sitting on them, the lots left with a view are going to rapidly increase. From an investors point of view, these are more appealing to me than a condo. J

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

What were comparable numbers for Jan, Feb and March 2007? Has activity picked up versus prior year or is this simply the normal seasonal uptick in activity?

I ask this because according to the Real Trend Report ACTUAL sales of SFH's through February are actually flat with prior year at $97 million and condo sales are down by $131 million or 77%. Looks like actual sales are not picking up versus prior year and your data may indicate only the normal seasonal uptick in activity.

Re: The bottom has arrived

SJ--thanks for the work on those numbers. I believe you guys when you say it is buzzing. I have also heard that sales pick up typically around spring break. So, is comparing first qtr 08, to 4th qtr 07 really accurate?

My intent was to show the increase in activity during the recent months, rather than comparing quarters. I don't think the contracts written in Feb and Mar were related to Spring Break in any way.

Re: The bottom has arrived

If the bottom has arrived, why are sellers still dropping prices?

Here is my theory on this and why I jumped in at this point.

Most real estate is still way overpriced. Most sellers can not or will not accept where the market is. They continue to drop their prices but not enough to get to where stuff sells. Joe tracks this on his website and I am sure the majority of price decreases are from extremely overpriced to just way overpriced.

I have about 5 buildings that I really like and keep track of prices. Over the last 2+ years a chart of their actual sales prices was constantly going down. But over the last 6 months or so they have or are developing a flat line for actual sale prices. When a seller drops his price down to that line it sells almost immediately. Wether that line is the bottom of the market for that building or a lull in the decline I can't tell you.

As for me, I jumped in because a condo in my favorite building on my favorite floor dropped their asking price to that line. I made them a cash offer for considerably less. I have to tell you I was amazed they took it. But I am thrilled because I got what I wanted. And while prices may be lower in 6 months, the condo I really wanted would most likely be long gone.

JMHO,
Flyguy

Re: The bottom has arrived

(Source: Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors)

2005
Oct - $28.2 million
Nov - $71.1 million
Dec - $19.7 million
2006
Jan - $23.1 million
Feb - $25.7 million
Mar - $28.0 million
**************

2006
Oct - $43.5 million
Nov - $39.5 million
Dec - $28.8 million
2007
Jan - $48.6 million
Feb - $66.2 million
Mar - $110.3 million
***************

2007
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million
2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

Again, I post the numbers only to show an increase in activity during the last couple of months. This in no way indicates where we are on the curve.

I apologize that the numbers aren't side by side. I tried, but it screwed up and combined them.

Re: The bottom has arrived

a little insider data for you non-Realtors. In all of South Walton, including Miramar Bch, the pending sales for the last three months are as follows, for Residential Homes, Townhomes, and Condos, combined. Keep in mind that pending sales are simply listings which are under sales contracts. That doesn't necessarily mean that they will close. They may not. The only reason for me posting this data which is collected from Emerald Coast Assoc. of Realtors, is to show the increase in activity which has been buzzing lately. The data shows :

Pending Sales for Combined Residential Homes in South Walton:

2007
Sep - $48.5 million
Oct - $45.4 million
Nov - $52.6 million
Dec - $39.3 million

2008
Jan - $40.7 million
Feb - $88.8 million
Mar - $84.3 million

So they don't know the "closed" sales (vs pending sales) numbers from these previous months yet?--or haven't any of them closed.


.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Here is my theory on this and why I jumped in at this point.

Most real estate is still way overpriced. Most sellers can not or will not accept where the market is. They continue to drop their prices but not enough to get to where stuff sells. Joe tracks this on his website and I am sure the majority of price decreases are from extremely overpriced to just way overpriced.

I have about 5 buildings that I really like and keep track of prices. Over the last 2+ years a chart of their actual sales prices was constantly going down. But over the last 6 months or so they have or are developing a flat line for actual sale prices. When a seller drops his price down to that line it sells almost immediately. Wether that line is the bottom of the market for that building or a lull in the decline I can't tell you.

As for me, I jumped in because a condo in my favorite building on my favorite floor dropped their asking price to that line. I made them a cash offer for considerably less. I have to tell you I was amazed they took it. But I am thrilled because I got what I wanted. And while prices may be lower in 6 months, the condo I really wanted would most likely be long gone.

JMHO,
Flyguy

FG,

Your purchase makes lots of sense. But do you actually think you'll be kicking yourself in the arse in a couple of years if you don't buy a few more?


.
.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Shelly, yes, closed sales are known for Feb and Mar. However, it typically takes about 30 days for most contracts to come to close, so showing the pendings is simply nothing more than a way of showing the increase in contracts being written, and if the Mar pendings do go to close, they would most likely be closing around April. I thought I was clear in my statement regarding my post being nothing more than something showing increases in activity lately. If I was not clear in that, I apologize. I do track closed sales, too.

Re: The bottom has arrived

If I was not clear in that, I apologize. I do track closed sales, too.

No, you were clear about the pending. But I was wondering how those "pendings" actually turned into sales--given the tightening credit situation. So what percentage of these pendings are turning into closed sales? (100%? 80%?)



.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Shelly, I don't think that information of conversions of pendings to closed sales is currently available from ECAR. That sure would give us better data to project future closings, if taken with other knowledge such as that you mention, the tightening credit market, tougher appraisals, etc. I will speak with Geoff at ECAR tomorrow and see if there is a way to make that information available. We are limited by the Solid Earth software, but it may just be that the info is available but not currently set up to access it.

Re: The bottom has arrived

My intent was to show the increase in activity during the recent months, rather than comparing quarters. I don't think the contracts written in Feb and Mar were related to Spring Break in any way.

Thanks for the clarification.

Shelly, I don't think that information of conversions of pendings to closed sales is currently available from ECAR. That sure would give us better data to project future closings, if taken with other knowledge such as that you mention, the tightening credit market, tougher appraisals, etc. I will speak with Geoff at ECAR tomorrow and see if there is a way to make that information available. We are limited by the Solid Earth software, but it may just be that the info is available but not currently set up to access it.

SJ--You certainly seem to really stay on top of this market. I am impressed by your willingness to get even more information to help your customers. It seems a potential buyer would be smart to look you up.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Shelly, I don't think that information of conversions of pendings to closed sales is currently available from ECAR. That sure would give us better data to project future closings, if taken with other knowledge such as that you mention, the tightening credit market, tougher appraisals, etc. I will speak with Geoff at ECAR tomorrow and see if there is a way to make that information available. We are limited by the Solid Earth software, but it may just be that the info is available but not currently set up to access it.

So they have the "pendings $" but they don't have the "closings $?" That's really odd ...or maybe they just don't want that stuff known.

If they do, like Oct '07 Pending was $45.5 million...and Oct '07 Closing was $40 million, I can do the percentage math for them.

BTW, thanks for the numbers.



.

Re: The bottom has arrived

Thank you, dunelover. I come from a background of open sharing of information. By sharing information with other agents (yes, they are my competition, but they are also people with whom I closely work) and customers, we all are more informed, and can make better purchasing decisions, and see possible trends in the market. Remember that statistics are only a bunch of numbers. Understanding how the numbers are compiled and asking questions regarding why sales have a spike or a huge dip, you really don't have a complete grasp of what the stats mean. I encourage questions with all of the stats I give.