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GTSViper

Beach Lover
Oct 8, 2007
96
0
sowal
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Joe Mammy,
I can't disagree that there will be a spike in inventory during spring of 08 as the foreclosures should show the fallout a little more significantly. However, I do believe people are realizing the deals that can be had. There are a lot of foriegn investors looking at our market right now. The dollar is weak and this makes it very intriguing to foriegn investors. The stock market has also been fairly strong for several months now and should slow down by mid year with elections coming. People should pull out profits and be looking for a place to put them,
I am actually planning on moving back into buying mode early spring as well as several associates of mine.
I am not saying the market is back and booming by any means but do see it bottoming out with a slow recovery.
Real estate always bounces back and has been a good investment for 231 years. It will also be a good investment for the next 231 years.
No More Land. More People. Good Location.
Hang on a minute......I am writing up a contract as I speak.
 

scooterbug44

SoWal Expert
May 8, 2007
16,732
3,330
Sowal
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Josh-I don't understand why people would want to buy one of these houses for vacation purposes and assume all the hassles of ownership when they can live like kings in a rental for a few thousand dollars two weeks every year.

If you have the $, I can definitely see the benefits to having your own vacation home instead of dealing with a rental that requires advance planning and has set dates.

I know some local "vacation homes" that are occupied more than 50% of the year by the owners, their extended family, or friends and more and more people are buying vacation homes with the idea that it will someday be their retirement home.
 

Kurt

Admin
Staff member
Oct 15, 2004
2,233
4,925
SoWal
mooncreek.com
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

where is the magic "bottom of the market"???

I posted about a year ago that it would be December 20th, 4AM, 2007, a little tongue in cheek of course, but the bottom is here now for some, or at least close enough.

But you may not know it for a couple of years. The main reason is because there is still a lot of property priced high and still a lot of people hanging on before having to let go, or remaining listed without needing to. This is easily seen where you have similar properties in the same neighborhood with prices far apart.

I have lately seen a lot of prices at 50% or so of what they were between now and 2 years ago. There is a lot of inventory, and a lot of it is still priced unrealistic, but I feel there is a lot of property on the market that is priced as low as it will go and some of it is selling. Who is buying? The folks who will be bragging in a few years if they are the type to brag. Most likely though they will be too busy selling to have time to brag.

Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy.

As of this moment, the better and more important question is:
"Where is the magic top of the market"?
 

JoshMclean

Beach Fanatic
Jan 15, 2007
995
128
Santa Rosa Beach
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

I pretty much agree with what Shelley said above. We will see a spike in inventory early 2008. Plus 2008 will be known as the "year of foreclosure" unless congress saves the subprime loans from ballooning:

"Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, seeking to limit damage from a subprime-mortgage crisis that threatens to end the U.S. economic expansion, said he's confident the government and banks will agree on a plan this week.
Paulson is negotiating a deal among banks, mortgage servicers and securities-industry lobbyists to fix some subprime mortgage rates before they reset higher and trigger a wave of defaults. The Treasury chief also proposed letting state and local governments temporarily exempt taxes on bonds issued to help refinance subprime borrowers."

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071204/BUSINESS04/712040391/1002/BUSINESS

I agree whole heartedly that their will be more homes on the market come this spring. I also believe there will be more buyers searching and buying! We'll know soon enough, it's almost here!
 

JoshMclean

Beach Fanatic
Jan 15, 2007
995
128
Santa Rosa Beach
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

Josh-I don't understand why people would want to buy one of these houses for vacation purposes and assume all the hassles of ownership when they can live like kings in a rental for a few thousand dollars two weeks every year. I can't imagine it is easy to sell people on the idea that these properties are good investments since their current prices are obviously inflated higher than what the market will allow. I don't have access to the data you guys have, I am just looking at the vacant houses on my street with weeds growing up around them while smoke alarms chirp inside because the batteries are dying. We will just have to see, but I bet things will be pretty slow for awhile.

I think Scooter did a good job of answering this question above. All people don't want to live like kings in a rental for 2 weeks a year. Some people like purchasing vacation homes as a long term investment/ sleeping in their own beds/ the pride of ownership, etc...
I'm not saying that things won't be slow for a while. Simply believe that the market will start ticking upwards before we know it. Same scenario of a couple years ago when MOST people didn't see the market turning downards. Hindsight is 20/20.
 

JoshMclean

Beach Fanatic
Jan 15, 2007
995
128
Santa Rosa Beach
Re: 2,500 Sqft under $300k in Miramar Beach

I posted about a year ago that it would be December 20th, 4AM, 2007, a little tongue in cheek of course, but the bottom is here now for some, or at least close enough.

But you may not know it for a couple of years. The main reason is because there is still a lot of property priced high and still a lot of people hanging on before having to let go, or remaining listed without needing to. This is easily seen where you have similar properties in the same neighborhood with prices far apart.

I have lately seen a lot of prices at 50% or so of what they were between now and 2 years ago. There is a lot of inventory, and a lot of it is still priced unrealistic, but I feel there is a lot of property on the market that is priced as low as it will go and some of it is selling. Who is buying? The folks who will be bragging in a few years if they are the type to brag. Most likely though they will be too busy selling to have time to brag.

Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy.

As of this moment, the better and more important question is:
"Where is the magic top of the market"?

Good post Kurt.
I couldn't agree with this comment more.
"Buying at the absolute bottom is not necessary and usually a fantasy."
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
I will keep my comment brief (shocker) and simply mention that current inventory levels have much to do with sellers not being realistic with their prices. I have shown plenty of examples in the past where two neighboring properties, with similar features, have a price variance greater than 50%. Until one the lower priced one sells, there is really only one property for sale, even though you will see two listed. Remove those over-priced (not sellable at current time) from the market, and you will see the real inventory.
 

GTSViper

Beach Lover
Oct 8, 2007
96
0
sowal
Smiling Joe,
You hit the nail on the head. The main reason the inventory is up, is overpriced property still on the market. But really not for sale ass no one will buy them. They are creating an over inflated number of homes on the market.
Kurt,
You are absolutely right. Sadly enough, we do not have a person that runs out snd rings a bell with the market has bottomed out or reached it's peak.
This is what a free market is all about. I purchased a lot of property when the market was down and made some money. I purchased some property with the market was and lost some money. God bless free trade.
 

JoshMclean

Beach Fanatic
Jan 15, 2007
995
128
Santa Rosa Beach
I will keep my comment brief (shocker) and simply mention that current inventory levels have much to do with sellers not being realistic with their prices. I have shown plenty of examples in the past where two neighboring properties, with similar features, have a price variance greater than 50%. Until one the lower priced one sells, there is really only one property for sale, even though you will see two listed. Remove those over-priced (not sellable at current time) from the market, and you will see the real inventory.

Absolutely correct SJ. I think it would be a huge difference in inventory if the unrealistic listings were pulled off the market.
 
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