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How Today's Conservatism Lost Touch with Reality

futurebeachbum avatar
futurebeachbumBeach Fanatic
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OpEd at Time by Fareed Zakaria How Today's Conservatism Lost Touch with Reality

Its an interesting article.

"Conservatism is true." That's what George Will told me when I interviewed him as an eager student many years ago.
...
Conservatism, he explained, was rooted in reality. Unlike the abstract theories of Marxism and socialism, it started not from an imagined society but from the world as it actually exists.
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Watching this election campaign, one wonders what has happened to that tradition. Conservatives now espouse ideas drawn from abstract principles with little regard to the realities of America's present or past.
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The Republican prescription is to cut taxes and slash government spending — then things will bounce back. Now, I would like to see lower rates in the context of tax simplification and reform, but what is the evidence that tax cuts are the best path to revive the U.S. economy? Taxes — federal and state combined — as a percentage of GDP are at their lowest level since 1950.
I would agree that simplification and reform would both be a very good thing, but that is not exactly the same as lowering taxes and cutting spending. (I also don't believe that either party is capable of truly cutting spending.)
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Many Republican businessmen have told me that the Obama Administration is the most hostile to business in 50 years. Really? More than that of Richard Nixon, who presided over tax rates that reached 70%, regulations that spanned whole industries, and who actually instituted price and wage controls?
The enacting of those price/wage controls was in no way a conservative move. That was an incredibly liberal (and short sighted) move. Rather than tackle the root causes, he chose to control inflation by limiting prices?
In fact, right now any discussion of government involvement in the economy — even to build vital infrastructure — is impossible because it is a cardinal tenet of the new conservatism that such involvement is always and forever bad.
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In the 1950s, '60s and '70s, the U.S. government made massive investments in science and technology, in state universities and in infant industries. It built infrastructure that was the envy of the rest of the world. Those investments triggered two generations of economic growth and put the U.S. on top of the world of technology and innovation.
But that history has been forgotten.
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Conservatives used to be the ones with heads firmly based in reality. Their reforms were powerful because they used the market, streamlined government and empowered individuals. Their effects were large-scale and important: think of the reform of the tax code in the 1980s, for example, which was spearheaded by conservatives. Today conservatives shy away from the sensible ideas of the Bowles-Simpson commission on deficit reduction because those ideas are too deeply rooted in, well, reality. Does anyone think we are really going to get federal spending to the level it was at under Calvin Coolidge, as Paul Ryan's plan assumes? Does anyone think we will deport 11 million people?

There is discussion in there about health care and other things, but I think that for me the infrastructure comment rings very true.

JFK's Man-On-The-Moon-By-The-End-Of-The-Decade required a lot of government investment. It also yielded the relatively strong economies of the 80's and 90's and put medicine and technology where they are today. We could do similar things today to develop greener, less geopolitically sensitive energy tech but neither party in the government seems to have the stomach to make such investments (although bailing out large banks, Wall Street, GM, etc... can be done without flinching.)

Whether liberal or conservative, we really need to figure out how to elect people who are truly more interested in the long-term welfare of the nation than they are in serving the short term needs of the special interests that fund them.

Replies

38
30ashopper avatar
30ashopperSoWal Insider
#2
JFK's Man-On-The-Moon-By-The-End-Of-The-Decade required a lot of government investment. It also yielded the relatively strong economies of the 80's and 90's and put medicine and technology where they are today. We could do similar things today to develop greener, less geopolitically sensitive energy tech but neither party in the government seems to have the stomach to make such investments (although bailing out large banks, Wall Street, GM, etc... can be done without flinching.)

Whether liberal or conservative, we really need to figure out how to elect people who are truly more interested in the long-term welfare of the nation than they are in serving the short term needs of the special interests that fund them.



http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/06/Federal-Spending-by-the-Numbers-2010

Federal and state spending as a percentage of GDP in 1960 was just under 30% and was decreasing, today it is pushing 50% and growing. We can't send a man to the moon on the limited amount of money the federal government has to spare after covering mandatory entitlement spending put in place over the last four decades. Debt service has also grown to new highs.

Resetting the bar will require a major economic event. We are following in the footsteps of various declining european countries where state spending has completely crowded out the private sector. The results - a loss of worldly leadership, high unemployment for younger generations, and political unrest. That's where we're headed AFAIC. I don't see things changing any time soon.

Edited

PearlSB4U avatar
PearlSB4UBeach Fanatic
#3
The Great Depression started under Hoover. His approach was to cut spending & balance the budget. FDR took a very different tack: massive govt spending programs.
The Great Recession started under GWB. He tried TARP & auto co. bailouts. BHO tried a large stimulus package.
Now the Conventional Wisdom, shared by Both parties is that we should cut back govt spending in a very large way. The two sides agree there should be large cuts, although they disagree on specifics; one side wants larger cuts than the other.
I'm no economic expert, but my bet is that large cuts will be made & that history will judge that to have been a harmful approach.
My intuition is that the FDR approach should be pursued until the economy is healthy again, & only at that time make draconian cuts.

Thx to futurebeachbum for initiating this thread.
I encourage all to read Zakaria's full article at
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2077943,00.html

Edited

30ashopper avatar
30ashopperSoWal Insider
#4
The Great Depression started under Hoover. His approach was to cut spending & balance the budget. FDR took a very different tack: massive govt spending programs.
The Great Recession started under GWB. He tried TARP & auto co. bailouts. BHO tried a large stimulus package.
Now the Conventional Wisdom, shared by Both parties is that we should cut back govt spending in a very large way. The two sides agree there should be large cuts, although they disagree on specifics; one side wants larger cuts than the other.
I'm no economic expert, but my bet is that large cuts will be made & that history will judge that to have been a harmful approach.
My intuition is that the FDR approach should be pursued until the economy is healthy again, & only at that time make draconian cuts.

Thx to futurebeachbum for initiating this thread.
I encourage all to read Zakaria's full article at
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2077943,00.html

Peak federal only spending as a percentage of GDP under FDR (1932-1940): ~12%
Peak WWII spending: ~45%
Today: ~27%

Debt as a percentage of GDP under FDR (1932-1940): 20%-45%
Peak durring WWII: 120%
Current:100%

We are running out of room, this time things are a bit different.
PearlSB4U avatar
PearlSB4UBeach Fanatic
#5
Another example of how "Conservatives" have lost touch with reality is that the Mitt Romney's statement--"I believe the world is getting warmer, and I believe that humans have contributed to that."-- is tantamount to political suicide in his party.

http://www.alternet.org/story/15134...jor_case_of_cognitive_dissonance)?page=entire

Another example: Newt's "suicidal" statements that "I don't think right-wing social engineering is any more desirable than left-wing social engineering," and allowing that replacing Medicare w/ a voucher system is too "radical"
futurebeachbum avatar
futurebeachbumBeach FanaticAuthor
#6
The Great Depression started under Hoover. His approach was to cut spending & balance the budget. FDR took a very different tack: massive govt spending programs.

Of course, the unfortunate fact is that most, if not all of FDR's programs also failed to end the depression. In 1929 (pre crash) US unemployment was <5%. In 1940 it was still at 15%. Its very hard to call that successful.

Luckily (or unluckily depending on your POV) WW2 came along and the ensuing investment and hiring of millions of men into the military ended the depression.
LuciferSam avatar
LuciferSamBanned
#7
WWII was a government spending program if there ever was one.
futurebeachbum avatar
futurebeachbumBeach FanaticAuthor
#8
WWII was a government spending program if there ever was one.

It definitely was. The difference is that it wasn't a guns and butter type of spending. It was pretty much guns and guns and had the entire country unified behind it and all were willing to make sacrifices. It doesn't feel like there is a lot of that "let's all make sacrifices for the common good" attitude out there now.

Massive unity of purpose enables us to get great things done. OTOH, I don't think I want to see the type of event that generates that level of unity of purpose occurring.
LuciferSam avatar
LuciferSamBanned
#9
It definitely was. The difference is that it wasn't a guns and butter type of spending. It was pretty much guns and guns and had the entire country unified behind it and all were willing to make sacrifices. It doesn't feel like there is a lot of that "let's all make sacrifices for the common good" attitude out there now.

Massive unity of purpose enables us to get great things done. OTOH, I don't think I want to see the type of event that generates that level of unity of purpose occurring.

Why not? Ideally we'd have unity of purpose 24/7 in good times and bad. Maybe that's what patriotism is. I wouldn't call them sacrifices. It's more about people understanding that sometimes taking a disciplined approach is to their benefit.
Andy A avatar
Andy ABeach Fanatic
#10
LS, you were, I believe, not alive during WWII. I was and they were sacrifices. We had rationing and war bonds, and many, many others. You're right, everyone pulled together, but all were aware, including us kids, of what the sacrifices were. Even kids worked and worked hard. At the age of 13, I was checking at Safeway stores and that was before the change was printed out for you to give to the customer. No, I am not for going back to the good ol' days but a little of being personally responsible for what happens in one's life and that of your neighbor's would sure be a help. The community awareness so present then would be great as well.
scooterbug44 avatar
scooterbug44SoWal Expert
#11
WWII was a government spending program if there ever was one.

The problem is that in Iraq and Afghanistan we are paying others 2-3x what we pay American soldiers to do the same jobs. If Americans were doing those jobs we would have much lower unemployment, lower costs, and a stronger economy.

We would also be far more invested in those wars as a country because of the numbers of people needed - probably requiring a draft.

At the peak of World War 2, 10% of the population was in the armed forces and their jobs were taken over by others.

Currently it is 0.5% and those are mostly career military, not short term volunteers who have vacated a job and a significant percentage of military supplies are not made in the US.
LuciferSam avatar
LuciferSamBanned
#12
LS, you were, I believe, not alive during WWII. I was and they were sacrifices. We had rationing and war bonds, and many, many others. You're right, everyone pulled together, but all were aware, including us kids, of what the sacrifices were. Even kids worked and worked hard. At the age of 13, I was checking at Safeway stores and that was before the change was printed out for you to give to the customer. No, I am not for going back to the good ol' days but a little of being personally responsible for what happens in one's life and that of your neighbor's would sure be a help. The community awareness so present then would be great as well.

All I'm saying is that you do what you have to do, and if the alternative is much worse than the "sacrifice", then you're not really giving up anything. I do understand everybody suffered during this time and during the depression as well. Well maybe not everybody, there are always exceptions, but you know what I mean.

Edited

LuciferSam avatar
LuciferSamBanned
#13
The problem is that in Iraq and Afghanistan we are paying others 2-3x what we pay American soldiers to do the same jobs. If Americans were doing those jobs we would have much lower unemployment, lower costs, and a stronger economy.

We would also be far more invested in those wars as a country because of the numbers of people needed - probably requiring a draft.

At the peak of World War 2, 10% of the population was in the armed forces and their jobs were taken over by others.

Currently it is 0.5% and those are mostly career military, not short term volunteers who have vacated a job and a significant percentage of military supplies are not made in the US.

I think a war is a terrible way to stimulate the economy. We would have been much better off if WWII never happened and the government found some other way to spend money and create useful jobs and industries in the process.
idlewindBeach Fanatic
#14
The Great Depression started under Hoover. His approach was to cut spending & balance the budget. FDR took a very different tack: massive govt spending programs.
The Great Recession started under GWB. He tried TARP & auto co. bailouts. BHO tried a large stimulus package.
Now the Conventional Wisdom, shared by Both parties is that we should cut back govt spending in a very large way. The two sides agree there should be large cuts, although they disagree on specifics; one side wants larger cuts than the other.
I'm no economic expert, but my bet is that large cuts will be made & that history will judge that to have been a harmful approach.
My intuition is that the FDR approach should be pursued until the economy is healthy again, & only at that time make draconian cuts.

Thx to futurebeachbum for initiating this thread.
I encourage all to read Zakaria's full article at
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2077943,00.html

The fact is that Hoover INCREASED government spending dramatically during his term. Government spending did not work for Hoover and did not work for Roosevelt. Only the massive employment due to WWII ended the depression. Liberals want to have us believe that Hoover was a conservative who cut spending but this simply is not true.

http://articles.boston.com/2011-04-..._deficit-spending-hoover-years-herbert-hoover
Andy A avatar
Andy ABeach Fanatic
#15
I think a war is a terrible way to stimulate the economy. We would have been much better off if WWII never happened and the government found some other way to spend money and create useful jobs and industries in the process.

I couldn't agree more that war is a terrible way to stimulate an economy but we had no choice with WWII. The Japanese decided they were going to empire build in the Pacific and we were in their way so they attacked Pearl Harbor. The United States was not responsible for the sneak attack on Hawaii and, again, we had no choice.
scooterbug44 avatar
scooterbug44SoWal Expert
#16
I agree that war is a terrible way to stimulate the economy, but since we ARE spending so much money on it, I think we should try to maximize our economic benefits.
LuciferSam avatar
LuciferSamBanned
#17
I couldn't agree more that war is a terrible way to stimulate an economy but we had no choice with WWII. The Japanese decided they were going to empire build in the Pacific and we were in their way so they attacked Pearl Harbor. The United States was not responsible for the sneak attack on Hawaii and, again, we had no choice.

Of course I agree. To me this raises interesting questions. If the fiscal stimulus brought on by world war could bring about economic recovery, why couldn't a peacetime fiscal stimulus of some sort be equally effective? I'm talking about useful infrastructure projects, alternative energy, things like that. Some of this even benefits national defense. For instance, you might want to save as much petroleum for vehicles that really need it such as planes, and ships, and tanks. Lets migrate over to electric for automobiles. Most obviously, reducing our dependence on foreign oil is in our national security interests.

Of course we are concerned about national debt, but the reality is that WWII racked up huge debt as a percentage of GDP. Does only imminent national emergency and the prospect of being forced to learn another language justify this kind of spending, stimulus, and corresponding debt?
scooterbug44 avatar
scooterbug44SoWal Expert
#18
The military has been testing using alternative fuels and trash instead of oil for years.

So far their biggest problems are politicians beholden to oil companies and getting enough biofuels.

Every Air Force Aircraft except drones (they are too busy being used as intended to test) can fly on something besides oil.

The Navy is testing planes and boats with a variety of fuels including algae.

And the US army's concern about supply lines has funded "Mr. Fusion" (like the one from Back to the Future) which uses kitchen trash to fuel generators so they use 90% less diesel and produce 1/30th of the trash (which also costs $$ and fuel to be transported out).
Andy A avatar
Andy ABeach Fanatic
#19
Of course I agree. To me this raises interesting questions. If the fiscal stimulus brought on by world war could bring about economic recovery, why couldn't a peacetime fiscal stimulus of some sort be equally effective? I'm talking about useful infrastructure projects, alternative energy, things like that. Some of this even benefits national defense. For instance, you might want to save as much petroleum for vehicles that really need it such as planes, and ships, and tanks. Lets migrate over to electric for automobiles. Most obviously, reducing our dependence on foreign oil is in our national security interests.

Of course we are concerned about national debt, but the reality is that WWII racked up huge debt as a percentage of GDP. Does only imminent national emergency and the prospect of being forced to learn another language justify this kind of spending, stimulus, and corresponding debt?

Nice try. IMO you are trying to compare apples and oranges. Stimulus created by WWII is a far cry and entirely different from the stimulus Obama created.
Geo avatar
GeoBeach Fanatic
#20
We aren't advocating for the type of spending/stimulus we have seen from Obama (or GWB)- quite the contrary.

We want to see spending on infrastructure. We want to see investment. Not the tax cuts and shovel ready projects that were the focus of the recent stimuli.

Edited

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