Hurricane Predictions 2006

I know that is good news for us, but it is still creepy and scary. :creepy:

Let me state that I am not putting any weight on accuweather's prediction map.

I was going to post this but did not....I also was wondering the accuracy of this..:idontno: (would be nice though)

I was going to post this but did not....I also was wondering the accuracy of this..:idontno: (would be nice though)

Nice is all relative. I am sure that people on the east coast of the US and the folks on the east coast of TX do not think this map is nice.

Also, what does "low" probability mean? -- Only 1 major storm hitting our area?

I guess it's time to check in daily with Dr. Masters' blog over at Wunderground. :wub: He's no Mike Bettis 😀 , but I just love the fact that he is a weather geek who can explain things to the masses. His entry on May 11 regarding the upcoming season was very interesting.

Dr. Masters' blog

At least it looks pretty good for those of us concerned about the rental season, but those Gulf temps could ruin things with a tropical storm or two. I'm not only concerned about the rental season, of course, but it would be nice to have a quiet summer.

This is an interesting map and is consistent with the CO hurricane guru's forecast for 2006. The unfortunate thing is that all the high probability areas are near major population centers. A strong storm in the Houston area would be very destructive, with LA on the strong eastern side. And the bigger hurricanes along NC's Outer Banks change the entire landscape and ecosystem. Although parts of New England are shown as high probability, the cooler Ocean temps in that area portend less intensity in storms, 1938 nothwithstanding.

I think we should all stay prepare and remain mindful that in the worst hurricane season (2005) in recorded history, we did not have loss of life or tremendous damage on the FL Panhandle.

And the insurance companies should stop using these forecasts of things that have not even happened yet as an excuse for jacking their prices up or, worse, cancelling the coverage of some. Jeb Bush, where are you on the subject of these corporate misdeads? :rofl:

if accu weather is correct in their forecast, this could be a very very possitive event for real estate in sowal and also for ST JOE stock. it is worth a little speculation to buy some common stock. if wall street accepts this forecast, the stock will be bought in anticipation of a mild hurricane season where st. joe's has development property. just a hunch. buy a bunch !!















st. joe

Goofer, you must think that if a Cat 4 strikes the TX coast, which has a high probability on this chart, that no damage will occur here. :idontno:

Actually, the huge and powerful Ivan came ashore at the AL/FL state line (80 miles west) and delivered us some punch and storm surge. Dennis came into Pensacola (60 miles west) and created some damage. But I don't think a storm along the TX coast (400 miles west) would deliver more than some beach erosion due to high surf. Not to underestimate the impacts of that, mind you. A couple of healthy tropical storms could accomplish the same thing. But nothing like the destructive force that occurred along the Alabama, Mississippi, Lousianna coasts or even in Pensacola. Two entirely different dynamics. SJ, I assume you are thinking in terms of beach erosion.

So far as following forecasts, can anyone deny that 3/4 of the men in American would follow TWC meteorologist, Stefanie Abrams into the eye of a Cat 5 storm? My husband would follow Stef or Rachel Ray anywhere!

Actually, the huge and powerful Ivan came ashore at the AL/FL state line (80 miles west) and delivered us some punch and storm surge. Dennis came into Pensacola (60 miles west) and created some damage. But I don't think a storm along the TX coast (400 miles west) would deliver more than some beach erosion due to high surf. Not to underestimate the impacts of that, mind you. A couple of healthy tropical storms could accomplish the same thing. But nothing like the destructive force that occurred along the Alabama, Mississippi, Lousianna coasts or even in Pensacola. Two entirely different dynamics. SJ, I assume you are thinking in terms of beach erosion.

So far as following forecasts, can anyone deny that 3/4 of the men in American would follow TWC meteorologist, Stefanie Abrams into the eye of a Cat 5 storm? My husband would follow Stef or Rachel Ray anywhere!

Absolutely I am talking about beach erosion. It was beach erosion that took off 35 ft of people's back yards in Blue Mtn Beach and Seagrove. Storm surge will remove millions of dollars of sand placed in front of seawalls as well as cause further damage to those properties without seawalls. Surely you guys know the potential effects of beach erosion, especially if we get more than one storm to our west.

As I recall hurricane activity over the years, we had very few direct hits but sometimes had beach erosion and storm surge if a storm made landfall to the west of us. Usually, this meant a landfall anywhere from Pensacola to the western edge of the AL coast. Almost every year, a hurricane would move in somewhere west of us. If a hurricane hit LA or TX, we typically had high waves but not much damage, if any. We had beach erosion, but the beaches repaired themselves over the next year, typically. No one paid that much attention to it, because that was simply the pattern of storms and the beach erosion didn't move anything around but sand. Not many people had storm surge because they weren't that close to the water. And beach houses were so casual that the water flowed in and then it flowed out...so what, if you weren't there for the event?

What is different now? If you look at historic photos of our area, you will notice that most of the older homes were built further away from the water's edge and they did not have these big decks or dune walk-over structures. Most of the time, we accessed the beach by trundling down the road to a public access. Most had no walkovers because there was a break in the dunes where one could walk onto the beach. Now we have the dunes eroded to create building sites, older homes expanded to twice their size by a huge cantilevered deck, and every single Gulf front house has a structure with stairs and landings, patios, etc. And the latest horror: seawalls. When we have storms, these things are the first to go and they take out a lot of the dunes with them.

I am just saying that beach erosion isn't anything new, but the preoccupation with property rights and values is something that didn't concern people that much during the old history of the South Walton beaches. There were no gated communities and it would have been perverse for someone to argue about another beach person walking across their property on a trek to or along the beach. What we did have in abundance was 30-ft. sand dunes that people never built on or dozed aside to create building pads, practically a forest of sea oats and other vegetation holding the dunes intact, and few people insured their beach houses. They owned them outright and lived with the idea of hurricanes and yes, the occasional rebuilding project.

A person would have been laughed at for putting in a swimming pool, a fireplace, or a seawall or building a house in a palmetto swamp or having a Surroundsound system or Plasma tv set at a beach house. We had black-and-white box sets with terrible reception, crinkled tinfoil on a set of rabbit ears. In short, we appreciated the beaches and didn't try to own them or build right on top of them. We didn't think of beach erosion as loss of property value, because we didn't think of the beaches as ours in an individual sense. And we didn't worry about whether all the tourists would stop coming if we had beach erosion. Of course, we would come back because that's what we did in the summer. We didn't go for the sand. We went for the experience and the company.

What I am saying is that nature hasn't changed...we have. While I enjoy many of the amenities the beaches offer today, along with the creature comforts of our home, sometimes I really miss the old days and the old values (as opposed to property values). :( I'll bet you would, too SJ, because you are obviously a very old soul.

...
What I am saying is that nature hasn't changed...we have. While I enjoy many of the amenities the beaches offer today, along with the creature comforts of our home, sometimes I really miss the old days and the old values (as opposed to property values). :( I'll bet you would, too SJ, because you are obviously a very old soul.

I would like to take a vacation there. Again, tell me how to get there. :funn:
Thoreau wrote in Walden, something along the lines of, man seems to have improved machines and systems over the years, but hasn't seemed to improve himself at all.

In those days there was a lot of undeveloped land and not as many people who wanted it.

As more people discovered they liked it here, the price of the land began going up. As the price went up, so did the potential for making profits, so more and more of it was developed and more and more people learned about it and wanted what was left and the prices went further up and...

...I think you all know how the story goes from there.

But how will it end?

In those days there was a lot of undeveloped land and not as many people who wanted it.

As more people discovered they liked it here, the price of the land began going up. As the price went up, so did the potential for making profits, so more and more of it was developed and more and more people learned about it and wanted what was left and the prices went further up and...

...I think you all know how the story goes from there.

But how will it end?

I don't guess that we could get lucky enough for it to go back to the days of the past where no one had any interest in owning land where you couldn't grow crops.

Most likely not, but it is funn to dream of that.

I guess it's time to check in daily with Dr. Masters' blog over at Wunderground. :wub: He's no Mike Bettis 😀 , but I just love the fact that he is a weather geek who can explain things to the masses. His entry on May 11 regarding the upcoming season was very interesting.

Dr. Masters' blog

At least it looks pretty good for those of us concerned about the rental season, but those Gulf temps could ruin things with a tropical storm or two. I'm not only concerned about the rental season, of course, but it would be nice to have a quiet summer.

Gulf temps are now back to normal. :clap_1:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=95362&pid=1186203&st=0&#entry1186203

Most likely not, but it is funn to dream of that.

No it is not. There are lots of people worried about the potential "peak oil" crisis, in which oil production no longer can meet worldwide demand, and our economy begins to collapse. There are various doomsday scenarios but there are actually people out there looking for land and learning how to farm because the theory is that fuel will be so expensive that only local produce will be practical. Then our entire economic system, which depends on oil to move smoothly, blows up and money no longer has value, so the only thing that equals power is food production. :blink: So people start stealing their neighbors' lettuce and stuff. Anyway, if that happens people won't be driving to the beach. :blink: (Not that I believe in the doomsday scenario, but I do think that getting our use of fossil fuels under control should be an immediate priority, if not an emergency. Sorry for the tangent.)

Pgurney: Thanks for that good news about the gulf temps! 🙂

I am just saying that beach erosion isn't anything new, but the preoccupation with property rights and values is something that didn't concern people that much during the old history of the South Walton beaches.

In short, we appreciated the beaches and didn't try to own them or build right on top of them. We didn't think of beach erosion as loss of property value, because we didn't think of the beaches as ours in an individual sense.
What I am saying is that nature hasn't changed...we have. While I enjoy many of the amenities the beaches offer today, along with the creature comforts of our home, sometimes I really miss the old days and the old values (as opposed to property values). :(

I can't believe the changes I've seen in only the 6 short years that we've been vacationing there in Oct. I can only imagine what it was like in the old days. We come from a place that's decidedly uncrowded and peaceful. I remember feeling that same peace the first few visits to SoWall, but the pace of activity has most definitely picked up since then. I read with interest the different viewpoints concerning development of the area. Change is inevitable, but I just hope the unique local charm will not be lost forever.