Ike

Dr. Jeff is giving Ike a 70% chance of hitting the Gulf Coast somewhere....

Hey BeachSiO2- y'all stay safe and keep us updated- does the puppy have a little life preserver?

Just a reminder that the "Gulf Coast" runs from Key West Florida to the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico. ;-)

Just a reminder that the "Gulf Coast" runs from Key West Florida to the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico. ;-)

Ike does not look like our friend right now. Is there a Tina in the Sowal house that he doesn't?

Here's what I am reading right now...

Hurricane Ike continues to move to the west-southwest as a large area of high pressure extends across the Atlantic to the north of the hurricane. This motion is likely to continue through tomorrow, followed by a gradual turn to the west on Sunday as Ike approaches The Bahamas. Our latest computer model guidance continues to maintain the area of high pressure to the north of Ike over the next few days. We expect Ike to pass over the western Bahamas on Monday night. Thereafter, it will begin a gradual turn to the west-northwest as the high pressure system north of Ike begins to weaken. By Tuesday night, Ike will begin approaching the Florida Keys as a major hurricane as it turns to the northwest. On Wednesday, Ike will slow in forward speed as it moves toward the northwest over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, generally toward the Florida Panhandle or perhaps a little farther west. It is too early to rule out a track even farther to west toward the north-central Gulf Coast.

generally toward the Florida Panhandle

:breakcomp:

IF Ike hits New Orleans just right...
IF Ike strengthens as predicted...
there will be loss of life. Too many people are financially drained from the Gustav evacuation to flee again. Even the indigent who were transported and housed for free are vowing not to leave again because the process was so trying on them. Trouble is brewing.

From the look of the tired folks leaving the shelter at Walker's school yesterday, they will not evacuate again. You're right.

IF Ike hits New Orleans just right...
IF Ike strengthens as predicted...
there will be loss of life. Too many people are financially drained from the Gustav evacuation to flee again. Even the indigent who were transported and housed for free are vowing not to leave again because the process was so trying on them. Trouble is brewing.

From the look of the tired folks leaving the shelter at Walker's school yesterday, they will not evacuate again. You're right.

After the much heated debate about people who didn't evacuate during Katrina the other day. I was defending to a degree those that didn't. I have to say that IF this happens the pity level is going to be very low for those that stay. You should NEVER be too tired to save your own life.

Even if you don't believe in prayer...start praying.

Latest guesstimates are pushing it farther west, not to the Panhandle, as there is a high pressure system on top of it. Current movement is southwest. For NOW, Sowal is looking better but our central and western Gulf Coasters need to watch out.

Latest guesstimates are pushing it farther west, not to the Panhandle, as there is a high pressure system on top of it. Current movement is southwest. For NOW, Sowal is looking better but our central and western Gulf Coasters need to watch out.

Do I need to think about going back to my hometown?

Do I need to think about going back to my hometown?

Let's definitely keep an eye out for Paw-paw. It would be about 7-8 days if it goes that far west.

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Gustav updates can be found at:

http://wwl.com (this is a news station with great coverage that streams live)
http://nola.com (New Orleans newspaper)
http://www.2theadvocate.com (Baton Rouge newspaper)

Thanks for posting this info. It seems that since NOLA was "relatively" unscathed by Gustav, the national media lost interest in the other areas of Louisiana that were hit particularly hard.

EBR had sustained winds of 62 mph (higher than Betsy) and gusts in excess of 100 mph. Many, many homes sustained significant damage by falling trees. Power is still out in much of the city (fortunately ours was restored last nite) and will not be coming up in some areas for 3-4 weeks. There is a tremendous amount of debris that needs to be cleaned up.

And now Ike. Yeesh.

are y'all trying to give me an anxiety attack? I should have never looked at the model maps on this thread.

If you didn't like those, you'd really hate to see what the GFS model is saying for next Saturday!

On this map GFS=AVNO

Thanks for posting this info. It seems that since NOLA was "relatively" unscathed by Gustav, the national media lost interest in the other areas of Louisiana that were hit particularly hard.

EBR had sustained winds of 62 mph (higher than Betsy) and gusts in excess of 100 mph. Many, many homes sustained significant damage by falling trees. Power is still out in much of the city (fortunately ours was restored last nite) and will not be coming up in some areas for 3-4 weeks. There is a tremendous amount of debris that needs to be cleaned up.

And now Ike. Yeesh.

Yes... and that REALLY pi$$es me off. Love NOLA... but there ARE other cities and people from LA that deserve information.

Latest tracks on Weather Underground show it going west of us towards LA or TX.

This will not be good for any part of LA to get hit again, especially New Orleans. Most of the evacuees from LA have left here and gone back home. If they have to turn around and evacuate again, that is hard on one's wallet, and takes it's toll on the people also.

These people should be given a break at these hotels and motels. But you always hear complaints of price gouging. They are down on their luck already.

IF Ike hits New Orleans just right...
IF Ike strengthens as predicted...
there will be loss of life. Too many people are financially drained from the Gustav evacuation to flee again. Even the indigent who were transported and housed for free are vowing not to leave again because the process was so trying on them. Trouble is brewing.

I am afraid that many will not evacuate. It seems so stressful to get on a bus/train to evacuate. If you take your own car then the expense alone is alot. My SIL and I were just talking today about how expensive it is to get prepared (buying generator, gas cans, gas, air conditioner, food, propane, water, tarps, chainsaws) not that everyone can buy these things or do buy these things but it is good to have all these things on hand. Trouble is brewing is spot on.

Thanks for posting this info. It seems that since NOLA was "relatively" unscathed by Gustav, the national media lost interest in the other areas of Louisiana that were hit particularly hard.

EBR had sustained winds of 62 mph (higher than Betsy) and gusts in excess of 100 mph. Many, many homes sustained significant damage by falling trees. Power is still out in much of the city (fortunately ours was restored last nite) and will not be coming up in some areas for 3-4 weeks. There is a tremendous amount of debris that needs to be cleaned up.

Glad you got power back, we got it tonight in Prairieville (by Santa Maria). I drove around BR today picking up a few items here and there and how sad. sad. sad. sad. I wish the debris could get picked up before and if IKE comes. Now instead of a whole tree aross the street I have stacks of pieces of a tree. :angry:

Thanks for posting this info. It seems that since NOLA was "relatively" unscathed by Gustav, the national media lost interest in the other areas of Louisiana that were hit particularly hard.

EBR had sustained winds of 62 mph (higher than Betsy) and gusts in excess of 100 mph. Many, many homes sustained significant damage by falling trees. Power is still out in much of the city (fortunately ours was restored last nite) and will not be coming up in some areas for 3-4 weeks. There is a tremendous amount of debris that needs to be cleaned up.

And now Ike. Yeesh.

I am afraid that many will not evacuate. It seems so stressful to get on a bus/train to evacuate. If you take your own car then the expense alone is alot. My SIL and I were just talking today about how expensive it is to get prepared (buying generator, gas cans, gas, air conditioner, food, propane, water, tarps, chainsaws) not that everyone can buy these things or do buy these things but it is good to have all these things on hand. Trouble is brewing is spot on.


Glad you got power back, we got it tonight in Prairieville (by Santa Maria). I drove around BR today picking up a few items here and there and how sad. sad. sad. sad. I wish the debris could get picked up before and if IKE comes. Now instead of a whole tree aross the street I have stacks of pieces of a tree. :angry:

I am glad both of you are okay.

It's not only the cost of evacuation... the cost of lost income also. Not only is it expensive to get up and leave, but to not get paid and then when you get back you now have to possibly leave again. My heart goes out to all affected.

What I am looking at, looks more like Texas at a Cat 2, but the guesstimate is still more than 5 days out.

Kitty- you need to start thinking about PawPaw again as Houston doesn't look good...

What I am looking at, looks more like Texas at a Cat 2, but the guesstimate is still more than 5 days out.

Kitty- you need to start thinking about PawPaw again as Houston doesn't look good...

Thanks for the heads up!!! I need you more than ever since I have storm fright and haven't looked too much, yet. Cat 2 actually sounds good to me.

Thanks for the heads up!!! I need you more than ever since I have storm fright and haven't looked too much, yet. Cat 2 actually sounds good to me.

At least I know the zip code.

God, I don't think my family around Shreveport can take much more. the expense of evacuation, repair, evacuation, repair. It hurts...

At this point the tracks are still shifting west. Latest GFS model has it going to Houston.

From Dr. Jeff Masters this morning:

"Once Ike emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a trough of low pressure passing to the north may be able to induce a more north-northwesterly to Ike, and pull it towards the Florida Panhandle, bringing tropical storm force winds to Tampa on Wednesday. The HWRF is the only model showing this, and the rest of the models push Ike more to the west, into the central Gulf of Mexico. The eventual landfall locations predicted by the models range from Alabama to the Mexican border. It is too early to have a feel for where Ike will go at this point, since landfall is probably 6-7 days form now."

We still need to keep an eye on this one.

They just updated the model graphs and there is an even larger spread than previously. Everyone from the Florida panhandle to the TX/Mexico border needs to be watching this week.