Ike

I don't find it very comforting that a group of models are still aiming Ike at Sowal.



Climatology seems to agree on the more drastic turn to the north.

I don't find it very comforting that a group of models are still aiming Ike at Sowal.

Those models aren't the latest runs except for NGPS, they've shifted west. That being said, it's still not very comforting.

You can ignore the CLP5 model. It is historical.
High pressure will be the key. "A big bubble of no trouble." Come on down, black flies.

God, I don't think my family around Shreveport can take much more. the expense of evacuation, repair, evacuation, repair. It hurts...

Shreveport had to evacuate? Who knew?

Shreveport had to evacuate? Who knew?

...oh, no! The slot machines must have all tilted!

...oh, no! The slot machines must have all tilted!

You would know about tilt. ;-)

Shreveport had to evacuate? Who knew?

I was wondering the same thing? Isn't Shreveport pretty far inland?

Here ya go!View attachment 10101

Shreveport had to evacuate? Who knew?

I was wondering the same thing? Isn't Shreveport pretty far inland?

That is what I was thinking. IT took me a good solid 4 hours of driving north to get from South Baton Rouge to Shreveport. Were they under evacuation???

You can ignore the CLP5 model. It is historical.
High pressure will be the key. "A big bubble of no trouble." Come on down, black flies.

And AEMN is a composite of a bunch of "alternate" GFS runs which use alternate input scenarios other than the actual position/direction of the storm and expected climate developments. They run a whole bunch of these and the projected paths end up literally all over the map. IMHO, the composite of these isn't terribly valuable. The "Operational" (i.e. believed to be realistic) run of GFS is "AVNO" on the SFWMD map. So, the only major model pointing at us right now is HWRF. It's relatively new, and so far this year, GFDL has been more accurate than it and the rest.

Look on the bright side, the panhandle should get some Epic Surf!

IF Ike hits New Orleans just right...
IF Ike strengthens as predicted...
there will be loss of life. Too many people are financially drained from the Gustav evacuation to flee again. Even the indigent who were transported and housed for free are vowing not to leave again because the process was so trying on them. Trouble is brewing.

Exactly. We just heard from someone that my son has been in contact with at Loyola. They just returned today and said they don't even want to think about leaving again.

Flying into NOLA on Sunday. Should I worry?

Hey guys,

I'm flying into NOLA on Sunday and driving to Seacrest Beach. How concerned should I be about either delays or the possibility that MSY will be completely shut down? (They were closed for 5 days from Gustav).

Trying not to let IKE ruin my vacation plans.

Hey guys,

I'm flying into NOLA on Sunday and driving to Seacrest Beach. How concerned should I be about either delays or the possibility that MSY will be completely shut down? (They were closed for 5 days from Gustav).

Trying not to let IKE ruin my vacation plans.

It's definitely something to watch but right now most of the models are in agreement that it will be late Friday/Saturday landfall in Texas. That being said, it is at least 5 days away so I wouldn't count anything out. I would keep an eye on it but still plan on coming.

Well, we've got a solid plan B. We're going to fly into Birmingham if anything is wrong at MSY.

Funny thing is that by the time our flight leaves on Sunday, Ike will likely be somewhere in Texas, which could make simply flying out of Dallas a problem.

But heck or high water, we'll be down there next week. Can't wait : D

Looks like more of a direct hit now along the South Texas coast and Mexico. Does not even show it touching LA right now according to the weather channel video I just viewed. But they were also showing a couple of different scenarios. It is still over Cuba and is a category 1 right now. Don't know how much it will strengthen.

I am seeing Matagorda Bay on Friday with a curving motion so that it will be in Dallas on Saturday morning as a small tropical storm. I hope DD sees that and is watching. I know Kitty is.

I am seeing Matagorda Bay on Friday with a curving motion so that it will be in Dallas on Saturday morning as a small tropical storm. I hope DD sees that and is watching. I know Kitty is.

PawPaw says this storm reminds him of Carla in 1961. :shock: I think it's time to get PawPaw. Thanks BeachSiO2!

PawPaw says this storm reminds him of Carla in 1961. :shock: I think it's time to get PawPaw. Thanks BeachSiO2!

No problem, email is in route.

The storm's ultimate track is all dependent on timing. If it slows down in the Gulf it would likely have a more northern track. Right now, it's track is eerily close to Rita's when she was this far out. That doesn't mean too much, except to show that the timing for that northern turn is important and that everyone in that area (from South TX to TX/Louisiana border) should be prepared.

I am seeing Matagorda Bay on Friday with a curving motion so that it will be in Dallas on Saturday morning as a small tropical storm. I hope DD sees that and is watching. I know Kitty is.

Thanks. Yep, I've been watching and reading your posts. Kitty, I'll go with to get Paw Paw if you need me to. Looks like I might have my uncle back too.

Water level already rising. Red flag waving. Here at WC they are in process of pulling everything off the beach.

BeachSiO2 - Is the latest for Ike to maybe be near Dallas on Saturday or Sunday? I've seen it both ways. Thanks.

BeachSiO2 - Is the latest for Ike to maybe be near Dallas on Saturday or Sunday? I've seen it both ways. Thanks.

Well, up until a little bit ago it was Sunday. Now they are saying they will be moving landfall north, closer to Houston (and PawPaw) on their next advisory. So the Dallas part may change too. I will post when its updated.

On another note the Fire Department has now posted double red flags and the waves should continue to increase in Sowal.

On another note the Fire Department has now posted double red flags and the waves should continue to increase in Sowal.

The Destin Surf report is calling for 12 Ft. waves by tomorrow noon, lasting for about 24 hours. Holy Moly, that should be a sight.

http://magicseaweed.com/Destin-Surf-Report/851/