Job losses and real-estate

[30ashopper]

Interesting numbers -

The unemployment rate shot to a 14-1/2 year high last month as employers slashed jobs by an unexpectedly steep 240,000, suggesting President-elect Barack Obama will face a deep recession when he takes office.

The Labor Department said on Friday the jobless rate rose a steep four-tenths of a percent to 6.5 percent in October, the highest since March 1994, and that job losses in September and August were deeper than previously thought.

So far this year 1.2 million U.S. jobs have been lost, with 651,000 in the past three months alone as the slide in the national labor market picked up in intensity.

"We have entered the phase of serious recession conditions. Unfortunately we will encounter more of this," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National City Corp in Cleveland.

About 284,000 jobs were shed in September, the most since November 2001, shortly after the September 11 attacks on the United States, and 127,000 were lost in August. In all, 179,000 more jobs were cut in August and September than previously thought.

A solid percentage of the recent lay offs were in hospitality, a big job market down here.

If you assume about 30-60 days from a loss till a missed payment, then on average another 60 days or so till default, we can expect foreclosure filing numbers to jump again across the country, and possibly here, headed into next year. Since the current estimates suggest an unemployment rate of over 8% throughout 2009, I'd say a solid recovery in housing shouldn't be expected well into 2010, or at least until job numbers start to recover.

 

[AAbsolute]

Interesting numbers -



A solid percentage of the recent lay offs were in hospitality, a big job market down here.

If you assume about 30-60 days from a loss till a missed payment, then on average another 60 days or so till default, we can expect foreclosure filing numbers to jump again across the country, and possibly here, headed into next year. Since the current estimates suggest an unemployment rate of over 8% throughout 2009, I'd say a solid recovery in housing shouldn't be expected well into 2010, or at least until job numbers start to recover.

What or who's your source on the unemployment forecast of over 8% throughout 2009? Thanks

 

[30ashopper]

What or who's your source on the unemployment forecast of over 8% throughout 2009? Thanks

Pretty much a consensus on CNBC and the eco blogs but nobody really knows for sure.

 

[AAbsolute]

Pretty much a consensus on CNBC and the eco blogs but nobody really knows for sure.

Is that eco for ecology or economy? I haven't seen the term eco blog till now.

 

[Matt J]

Is that eco for ecology or economy? I haven't seen the term eco blog till now.

In this sense it would be economy.

 

[SHELLY]

What or who's your source on the unemployment forecast of over 8% throughout 2009? Thanks

Here's an excerpt from an AP article today:

"October's jobless rate was the highest since March 1994 and now has surpassed the 6.3 percent 2003 high after the most recent recession. The government also said job losses were worse than first reported for the preceding two months, 284,000 rather than 159,000 in September and 127,000 rather than 73,000 in August.

Many economists believe the unemployment rate will climb to 8 percent or 8.5 percent by the end of next year before slowly drifting downward. Some think unemployment could even hit 10 or 11 percent — if an auto company should fail.

In any case, the rate is likely to move higher even if the economy is on somewhat stronger footing by the middle of next year as some hope. That's because companies won't be inclined to ramp up hiring until they feel certain that a recovery has staying power."


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ioHc80xKMiATnqCpK0cDKJzk_nPQD94AM5UO0

 

[traderx]

Link is to Bank of America economic forecast including unemployment rate.

http://corp.bankofamerica.com/publicpdf/products/abf/economic_forecast.pdf

 

[AAbsolute]

Link is to Bank of America economic forecast including unemployment rate.

http://corp.bankofamerica.com/publicpdf/products/abf/economic_forecast.pdf

It's amazing to me how you guys find and deliver doc's like this to us. Thanks

 

[traderx]

It's amazing to me how you guys find and deliver doc's like this to us. Thanks

Thanks but that one was pretty easy. BOA is a big outfit and Mickey Levy has been around forever.

I had read the AP story and the AP goes out of its way to present the bleakest picture possible. Maybe that will change after Obama is sworn in but we will see. I prefer to see first line research as opposed to what the press decides is "all the news that's fit to print".

 

[YoungFT]

Look for a Range of Scenarios

Economics is far from a precise science. Most good economists and market watchers will publish best case, base case and worst case scenarios. Because a house not on fire isn't really news, journalists will tend toward publishing the worst case scenario.

I'm sure someone publishes an average projection across economists but I haven't seen it. I've seen low end unemployment projections for 2009 near 7.5% and high end near 9%.

Global Insights ( http://www.globalinsight.com/ ) is also a useful source and suggests unemployment in 2009 reaching 8%. I have seen their worst case scenario through info available via a subscription that is closer to 9%. You can get a decent summary in the attached but it doesn't show the range of scenarios they expect...

http://www.globalinsight.com/Perspective/PerspectiveDetail14896.htm