New Airport- all it's hyped to be?

i have been as negative on housing as anyone on this board with the exception of Shelly...but JOE has done extensive studies on what happened to communites such as Tampa and Irvine CA when large capacity airport facilities became available. yes we are in a prolonged housing slump right now...20 yrs from now PCB airport will be plenty utilized with tons of capacity and i would not be suprised with numerous international passenger flights.

(1) I have a gut-feeling that in the near future, someone in the media or on Capital Hill is going to call the PCB/Bay International "The Airport to Nowhere."

(2) I don't find the prospect of turning this area into another Tampa or Irvine appealing.

(3) In 20 years we'll all have our own "Jetsons Cars" making airports obsolete and turning Aerotropolis' into ghost towns.


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I want a Jetsons car.

"The Airport to Nowhere."

Shelly, that was Classic!!!!

:funn::funn::funn:

Bring me up to speed on how LUK would earn

i have been as negative on housing as anyone on this board with the exception of Shelly...but JOE has done extensive studies on what happened to communites such as Tampa and Irvine CA when large capacity airport facilities became available. yes we are in a prolonged housing slump right now...20 yrs from now PCB airport will be plenty utilized with tons of capacity and i would not be suprised with numerous international passenger flights. this will happen...construction costs will never be cheaper, it made sense to get the airport online now...especially with all the red tape involved like JOe said.

As to LUK's purchase of the old aiport...i have their basis at a about $2/SF...many are not aware of LUK but their track record on being able to take advantage of cheap assets has been nothing short of spectacular. The old airport land is an extremely attractive tract with a ton of access to the bay...i bet over time they will do ok.

Thanks for your reply to my question about LUK and their purchase of the PC Airport. I'm trying to get around the idea, because I think Ian Cumming is super smart and I'm trying to figure out why so much carry cost at this time. Wasn't it $75,000,000? The interest carry's got to be 4,500,000 per month. Can the business of the airport cash out at that monthly rate at this time? If it's ultimate plan is development, but that won't commence until after the airport is closed, and the business doesn't generate break even at this point then doesn't that mean the basis is going to be more than the 75,000,000? I understand that he controls air rights near Washington, D.C. and I am not informed enough to understand profiting on that type of arrangement. What am I missing? Is there more here about some future litigation or arrangement than meets the eye?

I want a Jetsons car.

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"The Airport to Nowhere."

Shelly, that was Classic!!!!

:funn::funn::funn:

You are very correct 30ashopper. It is a classic expression which Shelly has borrowed from what they coined Henry Flagler's famous overseas railroad (The Railroad to Nowhere aka Flagler's Folly) which opened up much of the east coast of FL and Key West. Great book about one man's quest unless you harbor developer hostility.

[ame="http://www.amazon.com/Last-Train-Paradise-Spectacular-Railroad/dp/0553756842"]Amazon.com: Last Train to Paradise: Henry Flagler and the Spectacular Rise and Fall of the Railroad that Crossed an Ocean: Les Standiford, Richmond Hoxie: Books[/ame]

Made me think of the proposed Gravina Island Bridge in Alaska aka the Bridge to Nowhere.

I'd love to see the Market Research data that is supposedly driving this airport project...probably the same data that was driving all the housing development in Walton County.

Maybe (the Orange) The Beach people....

knock bay county all you want and yes they deserve a bunch of satirical comments and jabs...after billions of $$$ of investment their beach fronts still look like, well what they look like...but hey walton and freeport are counting on the spill over from the airport, just like they waited for the spill over from Eglin and okaloosa county over the past 10/20 years...
and all the d.o.'s approved and extended are for nothing but residential neighborhoods as far as the eye can see...the corridor between 77 and 79 in bay will develop in support of the major transportation hub successful or not will provide jobs and commercial development...it occurs that walton leadership only sees walton county as a bedroom community for neighboring county places of employment or more specifically just a nice place to vacation...is there such a thing as live/work in freeport?

You are very correct 30ashopper. It is a classic expression which Shelly has borrowed from what they coined Henry Flagler's famous overseas railroad (The Railroad to Nowhere aka Flagler's Folly) which opened up much of the east coast of FL and Key West. Great book about one man's quest unless you harbor developer hostility.

http://www.amazon.com/Last-Train-Paradise-Spectacular-Railroad/dp/0553756842

You know I have been a pro development guy all of my life. But I have reached a point now where I feel development (what we take out) must be balanced with what we put back in. Panama City (in my humble opinion) is an unbalanced equation, and this airport is just another example of that. They think this airport is going to make up for the over development of their beaches, that it will somehow fill all those empty condos along the concrete and stucco canyon that is front beach road. Maybe it will, but the reality of it is we will end up with much less than what we started with.

Made me think of the proposed Gravina Island Bridge in Alaska aka the Bridge to Nowhere.

Bingo!

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You know I have been a pro development guy all of my life. But I have reached a point now where I feel development (what we take out) must be balanced with what we put back in. Panama City (in my humble opinion) is an unbalanced equation, and this airport is just another example of that. They think this airport is going to make up for the over development of their beaches, that it will somehow fill all those empty condos along the concrete and stucco canyon that is front beach road. Maybe it will, but the reality of it is we will end up with much less than what we started with.

Actually the original reason for a new airport was the lack of space the current airport has, specifically the runway. In fact after they got turned down for a runway extension into the bay the FAA threatened to condemn the airport all together.

The majority of the development along Front Beach Road just happened to coincide with the new airport and a lot of the developers started using the airport as a way to entice buyers from farther away.

now, we have an airport that is under-utilized for the current and immediate future traffic; condos that can not even be auctioned off; and others that are dropping in price daily; as SJ pointed out we have a lot of traffic (cars/trucks) trying to get around; but little attention being paid to the road system except to get to the new airport; and wetlands that have been bulldozed down and are being covered over with concrete.

Is this good visioning for a sustainable future and a quality of life?

I don't think so. Whatever happend to the idea of stewardship of the land...

Bill Cramer is as sharp as they come. Maybe Harvard Law School made him be on point.

It didn't hurt that he married well.

Bill Cramer is as sharp as they come. Maybe Harvard Law School made him be on point.

It doesn't matter how sharp he is--the other four on the panel are morons and he has only one vote against their four.
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Bill Cramer is as sharp as they come. Maybe Harvard Law School made him be on point.

You can still graduate as a D student, even from Harvard. ;-)

Even if that wasn't the case why would a Harvard Law School graduate be selling cars?

I'd rather have a lawyer who made Ds at Harvard Law, than one who made Bs at University of ________. I'm not sure why he would want to own two really large auto dealerships, but I'd guess it is because they were very profitable. Now, back to the airport...

Shelly I am not saying that I personally prefer a Tamp or Irvine like build-out...actually I do not...however, that is not for me to decide. The airport, JOE's, LUK's and others' involvement has to do with business decisions. It is short sighted to beleive that the PCB airport will be an airport to nowhere...it is just a matter of time, demographics and geography will ultimatly win. we are in a much needed correction now but mkts and real estate in particalur are always changing and this current environment will not last. I guarantee you in 10, 15, 20 yrs PCB and the surrounding area will continue to experience massive developement, will attract a large volume of passengers to justify the airport, and will even attract significat corporate attention. Its been proven time and time again. Obviously no one can know the future for sure, but my interpitation of history backs up these points.

SJ's dead on with his summation about the airport and "future" growth opportunities. I've heard many tales spun about this airport as a soon-to-be savior for the reeling real estate market. This is laughable-especially when paired with the current national economy and statewide homeowner insurance crisis (not to mention the foreclosures, etc., etc...). It won't hurt, but such residual impacts will obviously not occur at the first landing, much less the ground breaking!!! (come on, I know many of you heard the spin just a few years back about the huge buzz and appreciation the mere airport approval would bring to local real estate values) . The prospects of future growth and development for Bay county and surrounding areas are real and a well placed investment. I also understand that if you do not like the prospects of future growth or potential environmental impacts of such growth, this is a bad thing. Regardless, it's coming-just not tomorrow. Birmingham Alabama had an opportunity to build the souths' largest "international" airport back in the 1960's and passed on the opportunity . Little ole Atlanta stepped up and said bring it over here. Obviously, growth and development in and around Atlanta has blown the doors off Birmingham (regardless if you love this or hate it). I'm not as familiar with the history of Tampa/St. Pete, but I know that this area exploded in growth only after construction of their "international" airport (not so coincidentally, built on St. Joe owned property). Bay County knows this and so does St. Joe. It is a safe bet that in 20 years or so, we will all be saying that Bay county and the surrounding areas don't resemble what we see here today.

SJ's dead on with his summation about the airport and "future" growth opportunities. I've heard many tales spun about this airport as a soon-to-be savior for the reeling real estate market. This is laughable-especially when paired with the current national economy and statewide homeowner insurance crisis (not to mention the foreclosures, etc., etc...). It won't hurt, but such residual impacts will obviously not occur at the first landing, much less the ground breaking!!! (come on, I know many of you heard the spin just a few years back about the huge buzz and appreciation the mere airport approval would bring to local real estate values) . The prospects of future growth and development for Bay county and surrounding areas are real and a well placed investment. I also understand that if you do not like the prospects of future growth or potential environmental impacts of such growth, this is a bad thing. Regardless, it's coming-just not tomorrow. Birmingham Alabama had an opportunity to build the souths' largest "international" airport back in the 1960's and passed on the opportunity . Little ole Atlanta stepped up and said bring it over here. Obviously, growth and development in and around Atlanta has blown the doors off Birmingham (regardless if you love this or hate it). I'm not as familiar with the history of Tampa/St. Pete, but I know that this area exploded in growth only after construction of their "international" airport (not so coincidentally, built on St. Joe owned property). Bay County knows this and so does St. Joe. It is a safe bet that in 20 years or so, we will all be saying that Bay county and the surrounding areas don't resemble what we see here today.

A few years ago the real estate prices were thru the roof, not necessarily attributed to the pre approval. I whole heartedly agree that this is a long term issue not a poof real estate is thru the roof again issue.

Birmingham Alabama had an opportunity to build the souths' largest "international" airport back in the 1960's and passed on the opportunity . Little ole Atlanta stepped up and said bring it over here. Obviously, growth and development in and around Atlanta has blown the doors off Birmingham (regardless if you love this or hate it). I'm not as familiar with the history..........

So true!

Thanks for your reply to my question about LUK and their purchase of the PC Airport. I'm trying to get around the idea, because I think Ian Cumming is super smart and I'm trying to figure out why so much carry cost at this time. Wasn't it $75,000,000? The interest carry's got to be 4,500,000 per month. Can the business of the airport cash out at that monthly rate at this time? If it's ultimate plan is development, but that won't commence until after the airport is closed, and the business doesn't generate break even at this point then doesn't that mean the basis is going to be more than the 75,000,000? I understand that he controls air rights near Washington, D.C. and I am not informed enough to understand profiting on that type of arrangement. What am I missing? Is there more here about some future litigation or arrangement than meets the eye?

I'm not sure if the $75M figure is exact but the purchase price was around that amount...LUK's carry isn't $4.5M per month its more likely around $4.5M per year which is 6% annually. LUK has great credit and access to cheap money. I'm not exactly sure when the money changed hands...I would assume it has just because I'm sure the purchase price funds needed to help fund current construction, but i doubt LUK has anything to do with the operation of the airport currently...there investment is soley based on development opportunity in the future. So if they spent $75M and have annual carry of $5M per year and they start development 5 years from now...their new basis is $100M in 800 or so acres of $2.75/SF or $120K per acre....that dog will hunt when you start consider 8 units an acre, condos, retail, etc etc.

again its not a matter of if...its only a matter of when.

LUK paid only a small portion up front, and the majority of the remainder of the payment will come over time, as they pay a portion of their future sales towards the purchase price.

Regarding real estate prices jumping because of the opening of the new airport, it won't happen in this area, as today's prices are already factoring in the airport. As more property around the airport is developed, prices will likely increase in those areas and work there way outward, over time. There will be no shift in prices over night.

LUK paid only a small portion up front, and the majority of the remainder of the payment will come over time, as they pay a portion of their future sales towards the purchase price.

Regarding real estate prices jumping because of the opening of the new airport, it won't happen in this area, as today's prices are already factoring in the airport. As more property around the airport is developed, prices will likely increase in those areas and work there way outward, over time. There will be no shift in prices over night.

Do you know if it's true that Fedex or UPS bought land adjacent to the new airport?