Let's see a show of hands from people that think that today's 30a prices across the board are due for a 40% decline so that we can confirm persistent rumors that this message board is full of fools. And for the amateurs here, a 40% decline in asking price does not equate to a 40% decline in value nor does a property whose value has declined 40% since purchase equate with an across the board decline of 40% from today's prices. Anyone ... anyone?
-
Trouble logging in? Send us a message with your username and/or email address for help.
Price Drops and Inventory
- Thread starter 30ashopper
- Start date
Let's see a show of hands from people that think that today's 30a prices across the board are due for a 40% decline so that we can confirm persistent rumors that this message board is full of fools. And for the amateurs here, a 40% decline in asking price does not equate to a 40% decline in value nor does a property whose value has declined 40% since purchase equate with an across the board decline of 40% from today's prices. Anyone ... anyone?
Watercolor bottom
I predicted the bottom to be at about $300 per square foot. You can get a decent lot for $300k and can build for about $150 per square foot (on the low end by WC standards). 2000 square foot home would cost $600k to build. There is your bottom. Even the short sales haven't gotten that low yet.
I predicted the bottom to be at about $300 per square foot. You can get a decent lot for $300k and can build for about $150 per square foot (on the low end by WC standards). 2000 square foot home would cost $600k to build. There is your bottom. Even the short sales haven't gotten that low yet.
30A Skunkape
Skunky
How does assessed value factor into this? We looked at a place yesterday with a sticker price in the upper 800s, purchased price (pre-boom) 300s, county's assesment in the low 600s
Inhale deeply ..... uhmmmmmm, feels good.
30ashopper
SoWal Insider
Today -
30%-50% off 2005
20%-30% off 2004
5% - 15% off 2003
Next year is totally up in the air, no way of knowing.
I understand what your saying though, "across the board" is not implied. You have to look at every property individually.
Last edited:
30ashopper
SoWal Insider
A quick update on that foreclosure graph I posted. I was in today trying to see if the actual numbers were accurate or if there were dupes in the data. There are dupes but not the kind you would expect. What I see are dupes across a month or two time frame. My guess is banks are filing Lis Pendens and then cancel when the owner catches up. The next month the owner doesn’t pay up and they file another one the next month. There are also a few amendments to existing filings that show up in my numbers as new filings. So the graph should be taken more as an indicator of foreclosure activity rather than a accurate representation of the number of active foreclosures.
Generalizing, your numbers are pretty close for single family homes. Lot prices have fallen harder than homes. As long as lot prices continue to fall so will home prices (the cost to build won't change drastically).
I agree that there is still a ways to go on prices. Saw a recent sale in Rosemary south of 30A that was just over $500 per square foot. Rosemary still has a good way to fall. Alys will eventually freefall from recent purchase prices. Recent sales in Watersound and Watercolor seem to be moving closer to a bottom, but still have room to fall. Seaside has held up well but that won't last with prices everywhere else falling.
Prices will not stabilize until inventory resolves.
Who thinks Watercolor will be the first to hit bottom and then start a rise again ? A good develop. in a good area with too much inventory and speculation. There is a lot of money sitting on the sideline waiting for this develop. to bottom. Looks like some think bottom is now but not just yet. Maybe ?????? We shall see.
Pirate
Beach Fanatic
I've never met a reasonable person that didn't care about a hundred grand (10%) here or there but if you know them, I guess they exist. Unless nothing was selling at the initial asking prices, a 40% decline in asking prices across the board should equate to more than a 40% drop in value in a normal market, what math are you using? Buyers rarely pay asking price, and never do in this market. Some properties are being sold off the bottom right now but the whole thing is moving downward. Very little is selling and even that at 10-20% below asking at the peak of the year. There is almost 10 years of inventory listed for sale, cut it by half for the dreamer listings and it is still a huge buyers market. My "amateur" opinion is that same property sales as an average will slide at least an additional 25%. In your "professional" view, what statistic are you seeing that indicates differently?
30ashopper
SoWal Insider
How does assessed value factor into this? We looked at a place yesterday with a sticker price in the upper 800s, purchased price (pre-boom) 300s, county's assesment in the low 600s
I think you would see a correction in assessed value based on your purchase price and comps. You can also file a greivance once you purchase with the assessor to have them re-assess the property to a more reasonable level. You can email Pilcher too if you have questions. He's pretty good about answering email.
Maybe someone who understands the assessor process better can comment. I still don't see any savings since they passed that property tax legislation a year or so ago on my house. I thought taxes were supposed to fall but I haven't seen it.
update - I guess I should have just checked the appraiser's site. Benefits to come next year.
Last edited: