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Storms - Ernesto

Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
3,599 views1
So now that the storm is named, I think it deserves its own thread, in case people don't know what invest 97L was all about.

Ernesto gets its name

Posted by: JeffMasters, 5:16 PM EDT on August 25, 2006

The Hurricane Hunters visited Tropical Depression Five this afternoon, and at 1:30pm EDT found a surface circulation center and maximum sustained surface winds of 40 mph, making this Tropical Storm Ernesto. Visible satellite images from this afternoon show a a sheared system, with the low level circulation center completely exposed. Upper level winds from the northwest are creating 10-20 knots of shear, which is keeping all the heavy thunderstorm activity confined to the southeast (downwind) side. However, this heavy thunderstorm activity is building towards the center, and the storm has some solid spiral bands forming. The storm is intensifying in the face of the shear. Radar from Aruba shows some of the outer spiral bands.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Ernesto.

The models
The latest 12Z (8am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray a conflicting picture of what may happen. Three of the four major global models--UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS--dissipate or severely weaken the storm by Monday. The Canadian model, which has been the most aggressive in making Ernesto a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, now keeps the system a weak tropical storm all the way to landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. The European Center model has a similar forecast. Oddly, the large upper-level trough of low pressure over the central Caribbean is forecast by these models to move west away from Ernesto, and an upper level high pressure system to build on top of the storm. This situation should act to lower the shear and aid in intensification, and that it what the official NHC forecast is calling for. It is unusual for the models to forecast a favorable shear environment, yet dissipate a storm, and serves to show the limitations of these models in making hurricane intensity forecasts. I have very little confidence in any of the Ernesto intensity forecasts--including the official NHC forecast of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. High wind shear could still destroy this storm on Sunday. Ernesto should slowly intensify through Saturday, but beyond that, I have no idea. It's best to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. All portions the U.S. coast from the Florida Keys to Brownsville, Texas are at risk from this storm.

Given the high degree of uncertainty in Ernesto's intensity, those of you traveling to or from Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Cancun should play "wait and see" as long as you can. At this point, it is likely that Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwest Haiti will get tropical storm conditions on Sunday. Jamaica's airports will probably close about 2am Sunday, and remain closed into late Sunday night. Ernesto probably does not have enough time to intensify to a hurricane before reaching Jamaica. Airports in the Cayman Islands will probably close by late morning on Sunday, and reopen Monday afternoon. Ernesto could be a Category 1 hurricane for the Caymans.




Funny that State Farm Insurance companies sponsor the map above, yet they are not issuing policies for most people whom the storm is likely to affect.

Replies

38
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal ExpertAuthor
#27
Not liking that 11 a.m. track. SoWal here we come? :shock: :shock: :shock:
If Ernesto takes that center track, we will have the beach all to ourselves on Labor Day Weekend, and the weather will be outstanding, so come on over, if that happens.
Beach Fanatic
#28
I saw this newest path on the fancy maps from a navy source, someone posted yesterday, prior to any other charts showing this.

Please rememeber, this far out, the center of the storm is likely to hit anywhere in that big cone which cover our area too. You better not drop your guard just yet.

I posted the Navy site, have used it religiously for years. Aways seems to be very accurate. I called my Aunt yesterday so she could beat the hurricane supply rush.

In fact, today, it is showing the course of the storm even further east, possibly running along the entire east coast of Florida and possibly going into North Carolina. That would, too, match the lastest hurricane predictions of the season where NC and Texas are big targets.

Edited

Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal ExpertAuthor
#29
Thanks for posting that, yippie. For those who missed it, the link is in post #15 on this thread, and it is an active link. As you scroll down the maps, you will see the predicted movement.

I questioned the authenticity of those maps, because I couldn't find the source, and all of the data was contradicting the current data from the experts. Then, I saw it was coming from the Navy. I would trust the Hurricane data from the Navy and Home Depot weathermen above most of the others. (kidding a little bit about Home Depot's weathermen a little bit, but mostly, I am serious.)

Look out NYC!

Edited

Beach Fanatic
#30
Thanks for posting that, yippie. For those who missed it, the link is in post #15 on this thread, and it is an active link. As you scroll down the maps, you will see the predicted movement.

I questioned the authenticity of those maps, because I couldn't find the source, and all of the data was contradicting the current data from the experts. Then, I saw it was coming from the Navy. I would trust the Hurricane data from the Navy and Home Depot weathermen above most of the others. (kidding a little bit about Home Depot's weathermen a little bit, but mostly, I am serious.)

Look out NYC!

I find it quite reliable. Apparently, this is what the Navy uses to guide their ships out of harms way. I'll bet the submarines in St. Mary's Georgia will be pulling away from the harbor soon.......Nukes....
tropicwatch avatar
Beach Lover
#31
I think at 10pm we will see the model tracks shift back westward a bit. The High pressure over N. Florida, SE Georgia is still quite strong and I think it will steer Ernesto a little bit further west before turning north.

Tropicwatch
Beach Runner avatar
beats on hood
#32
The computer models are looking good for our area as of 8 AM, although I feel sorry for the others who will get hit. Now I can start breathing again.

TFT, looks like you should be okay from what they're saying this morning.
TooFarTampa avatar
SoWal Insider
#33
The computer models are looking good for our area as of 8 AM, although I feel sorry for the others who will get hit. Now I can start breathing again.

TFT, looks like you should be okay from what they're saying this morning.

Thanks for thinking of me! It looks like it will take the long way over Cuba, which hopefully means it won't have a lot of time to restrengthen before hitting Florida. Good news all around, considering ... unless you live in Haiti. :(
Beach Lover
#34
:clap_1: So glad it looks like the storm will miss your beautiful area. We're sitting here in the midwest , crossing fingers, toes,etc. and saying lots of prayers that you'll all be safe from any storms this year. We spent a month last winter in your wonderful area and will spend 2 months this next winter. We're many miles from you, but your always in our thoughts and hearts! See you Jan. and Feb!
Rita avatar
margarita brocolia
#35
:welcome: Jackie! We'll expect to see you posting from time to time.

.
CastlesOfSand avatar
Beach Fanatic
#36
Ernesto :banned:

What TooFarTampa Said!!!!!!!!! :banned:
Paula avatar
Beach Fanatic
#37
:welcome: Jackie. Post often, especially since you are going to stay for months in SoWal in the winter, so you can tell us what it's like to vacation here during the off season. We don't get too much information about that.
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal ExpertAuthor
#38
Time's almost up for Ernesto

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:32 PM EDT on August 29, 2006

The latest Hurricane Hunter report from 3:17 pm continues to indicate that Ernesto is not strengthening. The surface pressure remains steady at 1005 mb, and the maximum sustained surface winds steady at 45 mph. Ernesto's appearance on satellite imagery is still improving, with upper-level outflow being established to the north, and the size and depth of heavy thunderstorm activity increasing.
Key West radar animations show an increase in organization and intensity of the spiral rain bands. Ernesto still has until midnight to intensify, and should come ashore in the Everglades tonight with peak winds of 60 mph or lower.

Marathon in the Keys has had several heavy squalls go through, and reported a peak wind gust of 32 mph so far this afternoon. Top winds at some of the offshore buoys have been 35 mph, gusting to 40 mph.

Forecast track
There is no change to the forecast for Florida, landfall will be tonight near midnight in the Everglades, followed by a 1-day long plus passage up the length of Florida, followed by a re-emergence into the Atlantic on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Ernesto will re-intensify over water. If the storm stays close to shore and makes landfall in South Carolina, it will probably come ashore Thursday night as a tropical storm. This is the solution of the GFDL model. If the storm moves more offshore and makes landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina, it has extra time over warmer water, and will probably be a Category 1 hurricane. This is the solution of the UKMET model and Canadian model. The GFS and NOGAPS models have a solution in between. The models differ markedly in what direction Ernesto will go after landfall, with several models taking Ernesto up the coast into New England, and several northwest into Ohio.

Spectacular imagery
Since yesterday, the GOES-East satellite has been in rapid scan mode where it delivers one satellite image per minute. For those of you on high-bandwidth connections, the animation of these images available at http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html (Colorado State University) is most impressive.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from 2:30pm EDT 8/29/06 over the Atlantic. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Ignore the wave I said to pay attention to, and pay a little attention to the wave I said to ignore--and the wave I didn't even mention
The concentrated area of thunderstorms I mentioned this morning, halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, near 9N 36W, has fallen apart. I no longer expect development of this system. However, another tropical wave to its east, at 12N 28W, has developed a very pronounced rotation this afternoon, and has some heavy thunderstorm activity on its south side. This wave has potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves west at 20 mph. It's under 15 knots of wind shear. The thunderstorm activity associated with this wave is being enhanced by a process known as upper-level divergence. When the the winds at high levels diverge (blow outward from a common center), then air from the surface must rise to fill the vacuum created. As this surface air rises, the moisture in it condenses, fueling thunderstorms. Thunderstorms created by this mechanism make a tropical disturbance look more impressive than it really is. The upper divergence will go away over the next 24 hours, reducing the amount of thunderstorm activity the wave has.

The large spiral of low clouds near 18N 43W that I said to ignore this morning may be worth watching yet, although I don't think it will ever develop. A small burst of heavy thunderstorms developed on the east side of the center of circulation this afternoon, and the wave is under low enough wind shear for development, 10 knots. However, water vapor satellite imagery shows this wave embedded in a large area of dry air and African dust that should preclude development for at least the next two days.

I may have a short update tonight in Ernesto puts on a burst of intensification.

Jeff Masters

Ernesto:
tropicwatch avatar
Beach Lover
#39
Radar presentations out of North Carolina show Ernesto taking a sidestep to the east which will leave it over water longer. I believe it will regain hurricane strength before landfall.

Tropicwatch

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