Hurricane Katrina - II

Looks like Katrina is a little east and norh of the NHC's center forecast track from 4pm.

East of Track

Model Tracks & Floater Image

I choose the UKMET model as the best. Completely off the top of my head, no history or anything. After all, I'm not a atmospheric scientist or oceanographer, just a aquatic biologist (formerly marine biologist). Got to keep reminding myself of that. Weather Channel screaming that this one will be as bad or worse than Camille. Hmpf. Hope it goes to Mexico so Jim can go catch something. Anybody in Biloxi we know? Paint up a SOWal sign at least!

I remember, as a kid, driving through Biloxi a year after Camille[1970?], and being amazed at the destruction. Could be wrong, but wasn't that the worst storm to hit the Gulf Coast in the last 50 years???

The satellite animation is striking.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

I remember, as a kid, driving through Biloxi a year after Camille[1970?], and being amazed at the destruction. Could be wrong, but wasn't that the worst storm to hit the Gulf Coast in the last 50 years???

I think you are correct. We used to vacation at the Broadwater Beach in Biloxi and I remember the destruction as well. I also remember the stories of the people that decided to ride out the storm...not a good choice.

CAT 5 - This is too sad!!!! :shock: :shock:

Hopefully people are heeding the warnings

Only thing I remember about Camille (way back in 1969) was seeing a set of apartment/condos, and all the stuff in them, blown out like so many stacked shotgun shells and being amazed just how far the carpet of crap went.

All the channels are making a field day out of Katrina so we can't be too hard on The Weather Channel (except for where Jimmy is concerned - if you've ever seen his act in person you'd know why-most arrogant person I've ever met-would probably set his own mother's house on fire to get the coverage- although I haven't met Earl in Gulf Trace. There was no The Weather Channel when I was out in Hawaii during Dennis and I actually missed it.

Did anyone else notice the skip in the satellite images from Cat 3 to instant Cat 5 with highly defined eyewall? It's in all the paranoia, I suppose, but what are they trying to hide, hmmmm? (Cue Jimmy broadcasting from the alien spaceship...)

I notice the fishing boats are out in Biloxi (behind Jimmy's head) per usual. Don't know if I'd want to be on one of them seeing as how it's still 240 miles out, and that's over 200 miles and predictability is still not that great until less than 200 miles. Remember Hurricane Bill? Every day they said it would 'have to' make landfall, and it just wandered all over the place for days, but Bill wasn't a Category 5 (not the cable, but the scale). From looking at the excruciatingly slow turn of the track, Katrina still wants to go to Mexico, and I think she should be allowed to go. We'll get those chaperones that went to Aruba to go along so she'll be 'safe'.

Bouy Data:
oh, just get your own, at:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=25.7N&lon1=87.7W&dist=250&time=3

Camille
Date Time Lat Lon Winds Pressure
08/18/1969 3:00 AM 29.24N 89.60W 190mph 909mb

Model Tracks & Floater Image

I'm still concerned about the surge damage in SoWal even though the storm is appearing to head quite a bit west of Pensacola. The storm is so large and now 150mph (Cat 5) and moving at 12mph (up from 7-8). If it does hit NOLA, does anyone have a guess at to any damage to the dunes/beaches in SoWal?

How does the surf look now? I'm sure it is picking up. Red flags?

You can be of two schools of thought on Katrina (and hurricanes in general):

1) The wringing of hands:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050828/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_katrina

or

2) The surfing of waves: http://www.mrsurfs.com/surf_report.php

I choose the latter, since a long, long time ago my dad once said about a hurricane: "I dare you to stop it coming this way."

I'm still concerned about the surge damage in SoWal even though the storm is appearing to head quite a bit west of Pensacola. The storm is so large and now 150mph (Cat 5) and moving at 12mph (up from 7-8). If it does hit NOLA, does anyone have a guess at to any damage to the dunes/beaches in SoWal?

How does the surf look now? I'm sure it is picking up. Red flags?

Law Enforcenment in Walton County are reporting 10ft waves and the sand that was replenished after Dennis has washed away.

And finally, before I take my morning walk on the beach (next to a really big lake) I'd just like to say:

MMM - MM - MMMM - MMMM - MMMMMMMM! There's that lovely empty beach again with no backhoes or bulldozers or chairs or tents or cars...
I LIKE IT! Show's you what common-sense legislation and beach renourishment by dredging can do.

Law Enforcenment in Walton County are reporting 10ft waves and the sand that was replenished after Dennis has washed away.

I hope this is not the case, but I have no reason to doubt the info... Keep in mind that a given storm can be either "net negative" or "net positive" in terms of sand deposits. An example of both in one shot, courtesy of kurt, is below (keep your fingers crossed for "net positive"):

Yeah we need the "net positive" to come to SoWal after this one blows thru. If the info is true and the post Dennis sand deposits are already gone, then we only hope that thru the next few days the during/after storm surge deposits some same sand up on the beaches of SoWal.

BTW, even if this storm hits NOLA, it looks like the areas of east of it (Mobile, Gulfshores, Pensacola, Navarre, Ft Walton, and even Destin) will get the wicked eastend kick on this one.

I just hope the folks in the NOLA and Miss area are heeding this warnings. They have turned all lanes out of the gulf coast of Miss and LA North to to try and get the people out. NOLA is below sealevel and that makes for a big problem as this looks like a direct hit based on the tracks now.

can anyone figure out why when even a cat 3 comes to SoWal there is a mandatory evacuation and then I just heard on the news that Katrina is a cat 5 and there is only a voluntary evacuation for the NOLA area

Someone enlighten me!!!

I just got word they are reporting 20' - 25' waves in the panhandle once this storm nears NOLA? Can this be? :confused:

Those models they just showed did not look good. Please all, stay safe!

News has been reporting all morning that they are just waiting for the Mayor of NO to announce the mandatory evacuation....what is he waiting for?

Kurt has been out in the field, and just called with a live report from Grayton Beach and Gulf Trace. At Grayton, water is up to the boardwalk. We are still about 36 hours from Katrina making landfall. In Gulf Trace, water is up to the Gulf-front houses, and is about to cover the geotubes and the piles of broken concrete. [Those houses will not be there tomorrow afternoon in my(SJ's) opinion.]:( It is going to be rough.

News has been reporting all morning that they are just waiting for the Mayor of NO to announce the mandatory evacuation....what is he waiting for?

He is waiting for his advisors to give him the results of an opinion poll. Who knows what he is waiting for!?

He is waiting for his advisors to give him the results of an opinion poll. Who knows what he is waiting for!?

His waiting might cause utter pandemonium...I am so worried about those people!