St JOE just finished their 3rd QTR conference call...they had some predictions ;-)
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Stick Your Neck Out and Predict
- Thread starter BlueMtnBeachVagrant
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St JOE just finished their 3rd QTR conference call...they had some predictions ;-)
Tough one... We will be 6 months to a year past it before we know it was the real bottom.
March 2009
The question was: "When will the trough or bottom of the real estate market occur?"
Just like during the tech bubble, optimism caused folks to keep buying as the prices began to tumble. Only when all optimism was crushed did the system get a chance to "flush out the junk" and prices stabilize.
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Winter 07/08 however "bottom" implies values will start rising again. I think it will be flat or very modest appreciation for several year until all the inventory clears out.
Someone made the point that as Boomers retire that will continue to drive growth. Based on what I have read & seen, the growth will be there in some fashion, but not a bonanza because:
1) "half backs" are retiring in AL, GA, SC, NC mountain areas because of taxes and insurance, in greater numbers.
2) Boomers have to sell their existing city home to finance retirment place. We all know what's going on there, netting less than they thought.
3) They are looking for low cost of living places. As stocks wane (it's coming), pension troubles, etc, many are looking at less money to retire on than planned, thus a reduction in expenses.
4) Many are deciding not to retire at all, but to scale down where they live now.
I see all this every day from financial planners I work with that consult with pre-retirment boomers. There is alot of fear out there, causing most to scale back plans.
I think SoWal will always be a good place to buy/live however growth will return to a normal pre 2002-05 level IMO. The rich will still buy $3M homes in Alys Beach, etc, however most of the purchases over the last 3-5 years have been upper middle class folks "investing" . That's going to dry up significantly if due to nothing more than sentiment.
Someone made the point that as Boomers retire that will continue to drive growth. Based on what I have read & seen, the growth will be there in some fashion, but not a bonanza because:
1) "half backs" are retiring in AL, GA, SC, NC mountain areas because of taxes and insurance, in greater numbers.
2) Boomers have to sell their existing city home to finance retirment place. We all know what's going on there, netting less than they thought.
3) They are looking for low cost of living places. As stocks wane (it's coming), pension troubles, etc, many are looking at less money to retire on than planned, thus a reduction in expenses.
4) Many are deciding not to retire at all, but to scale down where they live now.
I see all this every day from financial planners I work with that consult with pre-retirment boomers. There is alot of fear out there, causing most to scale back plans.
I think SoWal will always be a good place to buy/live however growth will return to a normal pre 2002-05 level IMO. The rich will still buy $3M homes in Alys Beach, etc, however most of the purchases over the last 3-5 years have been upper middle class folks "investing" . That's going to dry up significantly if due to nothing more than sentiment.
