Only a hurricane forecaster can be wrong 90% of the time, and still have a job! They would be better off predicting winning lottery numbers!
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061207/us_nm/hurricanes_forecast_dc
Forecaster predicts busy 2007 U.S. hurricane season
Thu Dec 7, 12:10 PM ET
The United States, which has emerged from this year's hurricane season largely unscathed, should brace itself for a potentially devastating hurricane season in 2007, a leading windstorm forecaster warned.
A long-range forecast for next year issued by Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based forecaster, on Thursday predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season with a strong probability that more hurricanes will slam into the United States than usual, based on average figures for the period 1950 to 2006.
It said that 16 tropical storms were likely to occur in the Atlantic basin, nine of which would be hurricanes and four likely to be so-called intense hurricanes.
Five tropical storms are likely to hit America, of which two will be hurricanes, TSR said.
It anticipated a combination of conditions that would indicate a higher-than-average hurricane season.
In 2007 the trade winds, which blow westwards from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, will be weaker than normal, while the sea temperatures between west Africa and the Caribbean, where many hurricanes form, will be warmer than normal, TSR said.
For those who may be inclined to disregard such ominous warnings following this year's widely inaccurate predictions of another string of major storms similar to those that ravaged the U.S. coast in 2004 and 2005, TSR said an unusual mix of conditions led to fewer windstorms than were predicted.
"The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development, and to the unexpected onset of El Nino conditions from mid-September," TSR said.
"There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before," it added.
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061207/us_nm/hurricanes_forecast_dc
Forecaster predicts busy 2007 U.S. hurricane season
Thu Dec 7, 12:10 PM ET
The United States, which has emerged from this year's hurricane season largely unscathed, should brace itself for a potentially devastating hurricane season in 2007, a leading windstorm forecaster warned.
A long-range forecast for next year issued by Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based forecaster, on Thursday predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season with a strong probability that more hurricanes will slam into the United States than usual, based on average figures for the period 1950 to 2006.
It said that 16 tropical storms were likely to occur in the Atlantic basin, nine of which would be hurricanes and four likely to be so-called intense hurricanes.
Five tropical storms are likely to hit America, of which two will be hurricanes, TSR said.
It anticipated a combination of conditions that would indicate a higher-than-average hurricane season.
In 2007 the trade winds, which blow westwards from the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, will be weaker than normal, while the sea temperatures between west Africa and the Caribbean, where many hurricanes form, will be warmer than normal, TSR said.
For those who may be inclined to disregard such ominous warnings following this year's widely inaccurate predictions of another string of major storms similar to those that ravaged the U.S. coast in 2004 and 2005, TSR said an unusual mix of conditions led to fewer windstorms than were predicted.
"The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development, and to the unexpected onset of El Nino conditions from mid-September," TSR said.
"There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before," it added.
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