• Trouble logging in? Send us a message with your username and/or email address for help.
New posts

UpNorth

Beach Lover
Apr 18, 2024
55
47
North
There is a tried and true solution to expensive housing. It’s as old as time. Works every time. And everyone knows what that is. Build.
 

PJJ

Beach Lover
Oct 27, 2007
119
32
edit - I'm terrible at the quote function.
I've posted a lot of new apartment projects in the last couple of years - so many I can't remember them all.

Here are some:










A thread on affordable Housing in Walton County:


Thanks. I knew I had replied to one of them and you linked it. We can watch this in real time now. From December I posted this -

"Hammock Bay is *asking* $1.82 per foot and is at 9% vacancy with a great amenity package. Market is at 13% vacancy (all per CoStar)."

Now they are at 49.3% vacancy and asking $1.77 per foot. Property manager has to be freaking out. It sold for $67,000,000 in Oct 2021. At 400 units, that's going from 36 empty units to 197 empty units in 6 months. Not coincidentally, around this time Riverwalk delivered 312 units. They are asking $1.49 per foot and are at 59.5% vacancy. 185 units sitting empty BUT they filled up 127 units. Really looks like a lot of the tenants in HB moved to RW. Market vacancy is 15.6% (not sure how Costar is determining "market" probably auto pulling a comp set based on location) - up from the 13% I posted in December. Between those two that's 382 empty units and 330 filled units in Freeport, and that's before Owl's Head delivers another 300 units. This is gonna be a bloodbath.

Also from that thread in December - "Asking rents are at $1.78 next to Dune Lakes, 280 units delivered in 2020 and still at a 17% (!!!) vacancy. 331 delivered in 2018 asking $1.74 and at 12.5% vacancy."

Now DL at 8.9% vacancy, asking $1.97 per foot. 331 at 3% vacancy, asking $2.10 per foot. 280 and 264 total units respectively. Not sure if some is seasonality because I haven't tracked it but that's quite an improvement for both. Still - did read a week or so ago that DL was on watchlist because it was at a 0.80x debt service coverage. Almost certain it was floating rate debt so until treasuries see lower yields DL ownership will probably be coming out of pocket to keep it current.
 

bob bob

Beach Fanatic
Mar 29, 2017
754
431
SRB
Seems like with all the units coming online in SoWal and on 331 south of 20, Hammock Bay and Owls Head are going to have to drop prices quite a bit to get leases.
 

Kurt

Admin
Staff member
Oct 15, 2004
2,263
4,941
SoWal
mooncreek.com
edit - I'm terrible at the quote function.


Thanks. I knew I had replied to one of them and you linked it. We can watch this in real time now. From December I posted this -

"Hammock Bay is *asking* $1.82 per foot and is at 9% vacancy with a great amenity package. Market is at 13% vacancy (all per CoStar)."

Now they are at 49.3% vacancy and asking $1.77 per foot. Property manager has to be freaking out. It sold for $67,000,000 in Oct 2021. At 400 units, that's going from 36 empty units to 197 empty units in 6 months. Not coincidentally, around this time Riverwalk delivered 312 units. They are asking $1.49 per foot and are at 59.5% vacancy. 185 units sitting empty BUT they filled up 127 units. Really looks like a lot of the tenants in HB moved to RW. Market vacancy is 15.6% (not sure how Costar is determining "market" probably auto pulling a comp set based on location) - up from the 13% I posted in December. Between those two that's 382 empty units and 330 filled units in Freeport, and that's before Owl's Head delivers another 300 units. This is gonna be a bloodbath.

Also from that thread in December - "Asking rents are at $1.78 next to Dune Lakes, 280 units delivered in 2020 and still at a 17% (!!!) vacancy. 331 delivered in 2018 asking $1.74 and at 12.5% vacancy."

Now DL at 8.9% vacancy, asking $1.97 per foot. 331 at 3% vacancy, asking $2.10 per foot. 280 and 264 total units respectively. Not sure if some is seasonality because I haven't tracked it but that's quite an improvement for both. Still - did read a week or so ago that DL was on watchlist because it was at a 0.80x debt service coverage. Almost certain it was floating rate debt so until treasuries see lower yields DL ownership will probably be coming out of pocket to keep it current.
Great info thanks for the post.
 

PJJ

Beach Lover
Oct 27, 2007
119
32
Didn't see this one coming out of the ground but it is now. 258 units with a $40 million construction loan.



Looking at the multi market in Freeport. First two are in lease up, HB was pretty well occupied but Riverwalk opened and rents south of the bay dropped and now they are half empty.

Madison at Owl's Head - 300 units - 90% vacant - asking $1.95 per foot.
Riverwalk - 312 units - 48% vacant - asking $1.50 per foot
Hammock Bay - 400 units - 49% vacant asking $1.81 per foot

A few south of the bay
Dune Lakes - 280 units - 9% vacant - asking $1.93/ft
Sanctuary 331 - 264 units - 2.3% vacant - asking $1.94/ft
Terra Mar - 310 units - 7% vacancy - asking $1.85/ft

So for now south of the bay is mostly stabilized, albeit with, like 2018 rents, but there are a ton of deliveries coming. Freeport is in trouble for a while. Can't believe a bank closed on a construction loan in Freeport late last year.
 
New posts


Sign Up for SoWal Newsletter