Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.
Real estate as an asset class doesn?t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).
Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can?t find a CIO who isn?t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.
You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let?s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 ? 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.
Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a?s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc?you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.
We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80?s and have heard varying degree?s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like ?hold on? and ?weather the storm.? You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).
For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.
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Beach Lover
THANK YOU, Shelly. 2b and SJ, you're both in time out for a while.
Banned
Ok,:( but he started it!
Beach Fanatic
Good clip Shelly and so true! I guess I am in "Acceptance"! I still had great first quarter though!!!!
margarita brocolia
May I be so bold as to interrupt this enlightening :blink: t?te-?-t?te and interject the following.
The RE Frenzy over the past couple of years was a market anomaly--a perfect storm of cheap money; easy credit; an asset class understood by anyone who has played monopoly as a kid; an abundance of people who feared the stock market; and greed. Now it is over and we are experiencing a reversion to the mean..............
:clap_1: And imo, this is a good thing!
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Beach Lover
May I be so bold as to interrupt this enlightening :blink: t?te-?-t?te and interject the following.
The RE Frenzy over the past couple of years was a market anomaly--a perfect storm of cheap money; easy credit; an asset class understood by anyone who has played monopoly as a kid; an abundance of people who feared the stock market; and greed. Now it is over and we are experiencing a reversion to the mean--a RE frenzy of that type will not return for decades, if ever in our lifetimes.
Like an old, trusted friend who has passed, those who've enjoyed and profited from the ride will grieve its passing...as such, all will have to pass through the K?bler-Ross 5 Stages of Grief (Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance) at the end of which we will finally hit the bottom (we're not there yet).
Below is an short video illustration of the 5 stages of grief--(the Quicksand being the current Real Estate Market), take a moment to reflect on what stage each of our RE message board members is experiencing as you watch this clip.
RE Market: Bubble or Quicksand?
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Does ?acceptance? mean pricing your property low and if you are not motivated to sell don?t list it?
In our little neighborhood several properties have already sold this year.
The only ones that have sold have been competitively priced.
Existing houses have sold for (approx. $500k for 1800 sq. ft cottage) about one third less than at the peak and vacant lots for about half (about $200k) the ?bubble price?.
FYI : Our village is on 30A, an easy walking distance to the beach, ten minute bike ride to the Town of Seaside, and a safe 30 feet above sea level.
SoWal Insider
Does ?acceptance? mean pricing your property low and if you are not motivated to sell don?t list it?
"Acceptance" in my book is going back to thinking about Real Estate as we did back in the pre-Bubble era.
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Beach Lover
"Acceptance" in my book is going back to thinking about Real Estate as we did back in the pre-Bubble era.
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How do you define ?pre-Bubble RE thinking??
Also, what exact period are you considering the ?non Bubble years??
In the meantime I will go and enjoy a soothing "bubble bath" and watch the bubbles grow, float, and pop.
SoWal Insider
How do you define ”pre-Bubble RE thinking”?
Also, what exact period are you considering the “non Bubble years”?
The "non RE Bubble years (circa 1999)" was the time when one could go out for a drink or to a party and not hear giddy-talk about the latest upcoming "investment condo/lot/subdivision" lottery--it was a time when the MAJORITY thought of our homes as a shelter and a place to raise and enjoy our family and not as an "investment" or a place to "harvest equity." (Believe it or not, SoWal was like that several years ago.)
Of course before the RE Bubble Years some "investulators" were into the Tech Bubble :roll: ...we all know how that "can't lose because it is different this time" proposition turned out. (But at least the Dot.Commandos didn't plow down the trees, flatten the dunes and fill in the wetlands to feed their greed.) <Disclaimer: I was not a Dot.Commando either.>
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Beach Fanatic
I disagree on the pre-bubble year defined as 1999. The nasdaq had not even peaked yet. Even following that in 2000, there were some ups and downs before the ultimate crashing as people continued to try and catch the falling knife. Later on, once people finally accepted that the stock frenzy was over, the money began to flow to real estate.
In our area, prices really started to move in early 2003. Even then, I don't think the increase in values at that time was based solely on speculation, but more so on the area being developed and real end users purchasing.
Somewhat later, seems like maybe late 2003 or early 2004, I got several calls from RE agents wanting to know if I was interested in selling my property as demand was really increasing and along with that, prices. At that time, one of these agents told me of a projected price increase of about 30-35% from my July 2003 value (I refinanced at that time and the value seemed reasonable but not inflated then).
Some agents here could probably point at more specific numbers to determine when the true frenzy began, but that is my take on it based on our property.
In our area, prices really started to move in early 2003. Even then, I don't think the increase in values at that time was based solely on speculation, but more so on the area being developed and real end users purchasing.
Somewhat later, seems like maybe late 2003 or early 2004, I got several calls from RE agents wanting to know if I was interested in selling my property as demand was really increasing and along with that, prices. At that time, one of these agents told me of a projected price increase of about 30-35% from my July 2003 value (I refinanced at that time and the value seemed reasonable but not inflated then).
Some agents here could probably point at more specific numbers to determine when the true frenzy began, but that is my take on it based on our property.
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