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Misguidance on Real Estate plunge

Beach Crab
37,132 views
Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.

Real estate as an asset class doesn?t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).

Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can?t find a CIO who isn?t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.

You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let?s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 ? 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.

Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a?s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc?you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.

We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80?s and have heard varying degree?s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like ?hold on? and ?weather the storm.? You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).

For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.

Replies

234
Banned
#202
I have not once asked for you parents name. Your friend posted the mls number, and it is easy to trace that back to your name, which I have not once posted. I did post the mls number for your property in PCB which you pointed out more than once your Realtor would not share it with you. It is not my intention to post your name on this site. If you wanted on the site, you would sign it yourself, and I respect that. So you are dreaming up words that I say.

Well it official, Joe you can not read. I have never in one post said my Realtor would not share with me my mls# I said for the record he had not emailed me the mls#. Knowing you were trying to bait me into giving you the names of the Realtors I am dissatisfied with, I just wasn't going to take the bait. Just because I didn't tell you he had only been marketing the property for 2 or 3 days you inferred I was talking about him. Did you not read that I had just secured a new Realtor

My second mention of mls# If I am not mistaken was that I didn't know how to pull it up. nothing in that post referred to my Realtor.






when you talk about Realtors as a group, rather than individuals, you might as well be pointing roughly 3200 fingers down here in our area. Instead of only a few of us defending ourselves, there should be 3200+ defending ourselves against your remarks. I guess the rest of them are a little smarter than me.


Get off the pipe Joe! Its going to force me to bring you some food down that way to you.

Exactly I have been battling all of you. You don't think I don't know this is a Realtors message board.
************************[/quote]

Edited

Miss Kitty avatar
Meow
#203
Mr 2bfabian, here's an idea...FSBO. :idontno:
Jdarg avatar
SoWal Expert
#204
I think anyone posting in this thread has to be taking a crazy pill, myself included. According to fabian, I need meds. He never mentioned you needing meds, but I'll share. If I need meds, then fabian needs a smoothie with a bunch of spirulina. There's nothing like being cleaned out.


Good grief, if you need meds, I need to be institutionalized!!
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#205
Mr 2bfabian, here's an idea...FSBO. :idontno:
Why would he do that when he can waste his Realtors' money. With all of his talk about not wanting to sell and not actively selling, I wonder why he has it listed, and you are right Miss Kitty, seems rather odd that he talks negatively about Realtors, "except for the ones who are doing a great job," yet he contacted Realtors to try to sell his property which he isn't selling. That makes about as much sense as his going back and forth contradicting his statements.
Banned
#206
I feel like the orkin man at a cockroach convention. If you had the ability to read it would just be plain funny.

Get off that pipe Joe, or start taking your meds.

You have continued to try to make this about my Realtor,when in reality it is people like yourself who are just plain lost when it comes to understanding your client.

Try to go out and see how long you can hold your breath underwater at 100 ft. then swim as fast as you can to the surface.

lindatat avatar
quirty
#207
Mr 2bfabian, here's an idea...FSBO. :idontno:

I was thinking of another acronym.........
Banned
#208
:popcorn: Chicago? I guess if you have to. That's about as much sense as someone got from reading your post.

Please alow Joe and I to finish this conversation. Joe,If that doesn't work we can always get you to try bridge jumping.

[QUOTEGet off the pipe!
[/QUOTE]

Edited

Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#209
I feel like the orkin man at a cockroach convention. If you had the ability to read it would just be plain funny.

Get off that pipe Joe, or start taking your meds.

You have continued to try to make this about my Realtor,when in reality it is people like yourself who are just plain lost when it comes to understanding your client.

Try to go out and see how long you can hold your breath underwater at 100 ft. then swim as fast as you can to the surface.


I am sorry you feel like you are being attacked. There are many others that post on this board about dissatisfaction with the market and agents. I understand, and have used this section as a vessel to learn about how to be a better agent and market conditions. Shelly use to drive me crazy but I have learned he really is an asset to this board. We need all angles to help us better understand the market. The problem I see with your post is you come off attacking an entire industry but offer no real solution. At least Shelly, knows why we are where we are at and can give a clear understanding of how we are going to get out of it. IMHO, try to post without such "yang" and you may get some "ying" back. This is how I feed my kids and I feel I give 100%. You have no clue what many of us do for you on a daily basis. I guess we can all learn from each other and I have really learned allot about being a better agent following this section. If you are unhappy with Realtors try to give us some positive direction. It may be helpful for all. Common economics tells us the market has to change and we all hate the thought of prices dropping. Many of us own here too! We get beat up from every angle. If the property does not sell, we are not spending enough money to expose it and when it goes under contract we sold it too cheap.:bang: I love advice and if you can offer any constructive criticism, I think agents will not be so ready to attack you. We are all going to be OK no matter what happens here.

Edited

Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#210
I can always count on you Joe to keep on the straight and narrow. Yes ,you are correct a good Realtor is invaluable. I do not say this lightly but out of the numerous I have spoken with over the past few years I find it refreshing to see that a very few like yourself are well versed on their profession. I am sincere when I say that about you. I believe if I had a piece of property that I really wanted to sell I would indeed look you up.:cool:

I feel like the orkin man at a cockroach convention. If you had the ability to read it would just be plain funny.

Get off that pipe Joe, or start taking your meds.

You have continued to try to make this about my Realtor,when in reality it is people like yourself who are just plain lost when it comes to understanding your client.

Try to go out and see how long you can hold your breath underwater at 100 ft. then swim as fast as you can to the surface.

Every Tuesday and Thursday before my wife was pregnant we would go down town to help some church groups feed the homeless.

I said that to say this.Joe, if you don't get off that pipe I Will have to start feeding you!!!!

Is it your belief that your IQ is above 80? I'm just curious because I was going to mail you a book that I feel you could use and that is everything your 3rd grader should know.

You have definitely been giving me practice on how to raise another baby.

Get off that pipe Joe.

You are such a well-balanced person.
Banned
#211
Bobby thank you for that constructive post. Every time I think that I am in a maternity ward with Joe over there crying in his baby food someone like you comes along and lets me see he just can't get the big picture.

Get off th
e pipe Joe because I am going to have to start bringing you food on Tuesday and Thursday.

I feel what pisses you off is I own nicer property than you do. There is a slight case of envy,and don't give me this crap that I don't know the town you live in. I wouldn't be bragging to anybody about that.

We are going to have to up them meds if you don't start become more coherent.

GET off the Pipe!


Edited

Beach Comber
#212
I am sorry you feel like you are being attacked. There are many others that post on this board about dissatisfaction with the market and agents. I understand, and have used this section as a vessel to learn about how to be a better agent and market conditions. Shelly use to drive me crazy but I have learned he really is an asset to this board. We need all angles to help us better understand the market. The problem I see with your post is you come off attacking an entire industry but offer no real solution. At least Shelly, knows why we are where we are at and can give a clear understanding of how we are going to get out of it. IMHO, try to post without such "yang" and you may get some "ying" back. This is how I feed my kids and I feel I give 100%. You have no clue what many of us do for you on a daily basis. I guess we can all learn from each other and I have really learned allot about being a better agent following this section. If you are unhappy with Realtors try to give us some positive direction. It may be helpful for all. Common economics tells us the market has to change and we all hate the thought of prices dropping. Many of us own here too! We get beat up from every angle. If the property does not sell, we are not spending enough money to expose it and when it goes under contract we sold it too cheap. I love advice and if you can offer any constructive criticism, I think agents will not be so ready to attack you. We are all going to be OK no matter what happens here


Bobby J -
I feel the love!! Maybe we all need a few big, deep breaths to inject some tranquility into this hotbed of verbage...so, here is my attempt to do so, prayers that calmer heads will prevail afterwards... Blessings and wisdom to each of you as you walk through the weekend before you. Find something you love and focus on it - even for a moment and realize that the world, imperfect as it is, is still a beautiful and amazing place...and that people, imperfect as we are, are all trying to do our best to navigate the journey. I appreciate, truly, (especially Shelly :roll: ) each and every one of you who try to share and teach and learn on this board. It is difficult when you feel misunderstood in this world, but it is ok. It is not the end of the world if it happens. Life is a good and awesome gift and we need to try to keep that in mind when dealing with each other. I will now crawl back into my hole and wait, for whenever I wax philosophically, my test soon follows...I hope I pass it when it arrives. Love Ya'll!
Banned
#213
Thank you for that above comment. It is my belief that I have malious to none. If it appears that way I am truly sorry.

But having said that I believe Joe owes both my Realtor an me an apology, for First trying to bring them into this forum knowing they were not the focus of my post.

No matter how clever he thinks, he is,he will find out that on this issue I will not concede his made up comments and innuendos.

He continued to try to bait me into telling him who particularly I had a problem with,and that is not going to happen.

Further more to my old high school friend,I would like to say it was not fair to my Realtors for putting out their Mls# originally. This I do not think they would have done to you.


Joe, Have you tried bridge jumping today?

dunelover avatar
Beach Fanatic
#214
.


Joe, Have you tried bridge jumping today?


I am quite SICK of comments like this. There is no room for them on this board!!!!
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#215
Get off th
e pipe Joe because I am going to have to start bringing you food on Tuesday and Thursday.

I feel what pisses you off is I own nicer property than you do. There is a slight case of envy,and don't give me this crap that I don't know the town you live in. I wouldn't be bragging to anybody about that.

"One sees great things from the valley, only small things from the peak."
-- G.K. Chesterton ;-)
Banned
#216
say what? have you heard some of the personal attacks that I have had to endure?Please.

Start with the man who is starting this crap,then come back to me. He may be your friend,but he sure as heck has not acted like mine.

Read his post inferring that I smoke crack. I don't even know what it would look like. I don't do drugs or drink so if you have a complaint then get him to apologize. Otherwise stay out of this feud.
Banned
#217
Surely you can think of your own quotes.

A fools interpretation of the truth is always there own. 2bfabian

Well Joe what about snake charming?

Edited

dunelover avatar
Beach Fanatic
#218
2B---any of us that read this thread are welcome to post at anytime. And yes, I have read all the comments, and suggesting you are pipe smoking, is a bit different than asking joe repeatedly to go bridge jumping, I think we can read between the lines as to what would happen. So, when you say basically, Jump of the bridge and die, I take offense. As any umpire/referre would say "keep it clean".
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#219
say what? have you heard some of the personal attacks that I have had to endure?Please.

Start with the man who is starting this crap,then come back to me. He may be your friend,but he sure as heck has not acted like mine.

Read his post inferring that I smoke crack. I don't even know what it would look like. I don't do drugs or drink so if you have a complaint then get him to apologize. Otherwise stay out of this feud.

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger." -- Buddha
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#220
Surely you can think of your own quotes.

A fools interpretation of the truth is always there own. 2bfabian

Classic. :clap_1: Can I quote you on that? I never knew you evaluated your own thoughts like that. :clap_1::clap_1::clap_1:

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