Misguidance on Real Estate plunge

It would great if ALL sellers could sit for months and months and hold firm but most of the time, you will have some sellers that NEED or HAVE to sell but you will almost never have buyers that NEED or HAVE to buy.

...then there is the "level-headed actual investor" (seller) who is smart enough to realize it may be good time to take their profits off the table and enjoy them or move on to something else.


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b2fabian, you are missing two important points:

1. All sellers are not the same (with regard to want/need/don't need to sell)
2. Sellers do not dictate selling price by themselves - there is only a selling price established when a buyer agrees to buy.

It would great if ALL sellers could sit for months and months and hold firm but most of the time, you will have some sellers that NEED or HAVE to sell but you will almost never have buyers that NEED or HAVE to buy.

:clap_1:

Please someone in the know please post the APPROVED development orders for both large and small parcels in South walton and the land use changes that allow 8 or 10 per acre(infill). I just would love to know just how many lots there are waiting in the wings...My guess is 10,000 give or take a few. Add those to your inventory already on the market and then ask what does that pressure put on declining prices? While I agree the government does not regulate sales they are doing there best to establish a bottom price in Freeport and indirectly are regulating a lack of sales due to increased taxes.

Did I just Hear you say the bottom was hit. and what happened?

March happened...existing homes sales figures just released this morning.


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I agree with Shelly regarding supply and demand.


When we first moved her over 10 years ago the most sought after prime property on 30A was either on the beach or in walking distance (within 1/4 mile) to a beach access. It is only in the ?bubble years? that land further from the beach was worth developing -or so developers thought.

Now we seem to be ?returning to the basics? for 30A property.


I am curious about the current supply of what was originally (in the good ole days) thought of as the prime 30A property.

Based on my ?long? experiences here with storms and insurance I would add other important criteria.

This ?prime property? would also have to be at least approximately 30 ft. above sea level and also qualify for Federal Flood insurance at the minimal cost of about $300.

And if considering a house it would have to built to 2001(or newer) Florida Building Code Compliance (needed for 34% insurance discount) with a hip roof (needed for 15 % insurance discount) and window door protection ( up to 20% insurance discount).

What is the 30A supply of property that meets this "updated good ole days? prime property definition?

While everyone's blabbing their best supply and demand definition, did anyone notice that for the last 4 consecutive months that Single Family Sales in Walton County rose..........? Congrats to all the agents out there that are closin' em...Red

Redfisher, according to my numbers that is not correct, but it is close. I will say that my data was compiled on April 01, and it is possible that numbers for Feb have changed slightly as agents may have entered the Feb closed sales very late.

According to the numbers I ran, in Feb, the sales dropped from Jan, but in Mar, the number more than doubled Feb's sales of Single Family Detached (homes), with Mar having 54 closings
My numbers show:
Dec '06 -- 32 closed
Jan '07 -- 37
Feb -- 26
Mar -- 54

However, Condo sales have increased over each month for the last four months with sales being:
Dec '06 - 14
Jan '07 - 30
Feb - 47
Mar - 121

Redfisher, according to my numbers that is not correct, but it is close. I will say that my data was compiled on April 01, and it is possible that numbers for Feb have changed slightly as agents may have entered the Feb closed sales very late.

According to the numbers I ran, in Feb, the sales dropped from Jan, but in Mar, the number more than doubled Feb's sales of Single Family Detached (homes), with Mar having 54 closings
My numbers show:
Dec '06 -- 32 closed
Jan '07 -- 37
Feb -- 26
Mar -- 54

However, Condo sales have increased over each month for the last four months with sales being:
Dec '06 - 14
Jan '07 - 30
Feb - 47
Mar - 121

SJ,
I believe Mar-121 was Aerial Dunes closing? Correct?

While everyone's blabbing their best supply and demand definition, did anyone notice that for the last 4 consecutive months that Single Family Sales in Walton County rose..........? Congrats to all the agents out there that are closin' em...Red

This is really great news but I will be real stoked when I see 4 months of sales dominating "new" inventory.

SJ,
I believe Mar-121 was Aerial Dunes closing? Correct?

Correct. They had a few sales in Feb, too, if I correctly recall, but yes, the majority of the closing were due to the completion of Aerial Dunes, not just an uptrend in the market.

I don't know Joe, I'm not a r/e agent...I'm just looking at Metro Mkt #'s in Sat. Walton Sun...Looks like a rise for 4 months in total SFH's to me...But I'll take 3 out of 4 if your right...Red

P.S... I'm like Rutger, I really "admire" the naysayers too, I just think they're wrong...

I don't know Joe, I'm just looking at Metro Mkt #'s in Sat. Walton Sun...Looks like a rise for 4 months in total SFH's to me...Red

Well that would answer question of difference in numbers. I haven't seen Market Trends numbers. I am using the reported sales in the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors database, which, by the way, doesn't account for ForSaleByOwners, unless a Realtor was involved in the transaction. I believe Market Trends use the sales recorded in the Clerk of Courts. Out of curiosity, what is the total number of sales shown for Feb in MMTrends? Or, are you just looking at the graph?

...then there is the "level-headed actual investor" (seller) who is smart enough to realize it may be good time to take their profits off the table and enjoy them or move on to something else.


/

Shelly, are you trying to get me to like you or something? :roll: Wow...a Shelly statement I can agree with! :clap_1:

I agree with Shelly regarding supply and demand.


When we first moved her over 10 years ago the most sought after prime property on 30A was either on the beach or in walking distance (within 1/4 mile) to a beach access. It is only in the ?bubble years? that land further from the beach was worth developing -or so developers thought.

Now we seem to be ?returning to the basics? for 30A property.


I am curious about the current supply of what was originally (in the good ole days) thought of as the prime 30A property.

Based on my ?long? experiences here with storms and insurance I would add other important criteria.

This ?prime property? would also have to be at least approximately 30 ft. above sea level and also qualify for Federal Flood insurance at the minimal cost of about $300.

And if considering a house it would have to built to 2001(or newer) Florida Building Code Compliance (needed for 34% insurance discount) with a hip roof (needed for 15 % insurance discount) and window door protection ( up to 20% insurance discount).

What is the 30A supply of property that meets this "updated good ole days? prime property definition?

You are missing one critical factor that new buyers need to be familiar with, and that is who constructed the home you are interested in purchasing. If your primary residence is out of state, you can't yell across the fence to ask who is best or worst in the construction business. Well myflorida.com has the answer.

You can type in Myflorida.com, or go directly to this link at https://www.myfloridalicense.com . Lots of ways to skate around the Walton County building codes and you need to find out who has a reputation of attempting to do it. Always check this site regardless if you are buying or building a home in Florida. If its a condo, find out as much as you can about the contractors and or developers. Being an informed consumer and using this site correctly will more than likely save yourself some headaches and money.

Correct. They had a few sales in Feb, too, if I correctly recall, but yes, the majority of the closing were due to the completion of Aerial Dunes, not just an uptrend in the market.

I can understand how even in a "challenging" market the RE sales would normally show an increase month-over-month heading into the "hot Spring selling season;" but how do those figures compare to Jan - Mar Y-O-Y? (06 vs 07).

...and are these figures comparable to the "normal" RE sales figures going back to the pre-frenzy era (in other words, a reversion to the mean?)

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Shelly, to answer your question in a quick fashion, in regards to the quantity of sales, single family detached homes in southern Walton County plus Freeport, were off 23.5% for the last four months ending Mar 31, 2007, as compared to the four month period ending Mar 31, 2006.

Edit: Actually, my sales data which was earlier referenced does not include the northern part of the county except for Freeport, which is included. That might be another difference in the Market Trends data.

Shelly, to answer your question in a quick fashion, in regards to the quantity of sales, single family detached homes in southern Walton County plus Freeport, were off 23.5% for the last four months ending Mar 31, 2007, as compared to the four month period ending Mar 31, 2006.

Edit: Actually, my sales data which was earlier referenced does not include the northern part of the county except for Freeport, which is included. That might be another difference in the Market Trends data.

Thanks SJ.

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a little more info on that comparison:
At a glance, inventory has ticked up slightly from this time a year ago, and prices have pretty much averaged out to be similar comparing the four month periods. For Mar 07, in SoWal, the average home (sfd) sale price was slightly over $1 million.

For Mar 07, in SoWal, the average home (sfd) sale price was slightly over $1 million.

What was the highest sale price paid for a home in Mar 07 and how many home sales is the average based on?

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I take that back. I was looking at avg list price of the sales. The average closed sales price was $998K for sfd homes in SoWal. That is based on 34 sales, which is the highest quantity of sales in the area dating back to Dec 05 when there were 38 sales. In comparison, the avg sales price in Dec 05 was $665K.

The cheapest sale during mar 07 was a mobile home closing at $107K and the most expensive closing was a Gulf Front home at $4.515 million. Eleven homes closed at prices greater than one million, with nine homes closing between $500K -$999,999, and the remaining 14 closing under $500K.

Throwing out the high and low would give a more accurate number?????

The real trend report for all of Walton County reports March Year to Date sales figures as follows:

SFH--unit sales down 17%, average price down 11%

Residential land--unit sales down 60%, average price down 30%

Condos--unit sales up 239%, average price up 22% (resale condo sales up 20%, resale condo average price down 13%--factors out the preclosing condo issue)

Truth be told, there are a lot of agents who are sweating bullets because they've got their own RE they're trying to unload...and their desperation is doubled since they are getting hammered from both ends (their job income AND their investment outgo--kinda like what the folks at Enron went through).

/

Did you see the Enron movie? Great flick.

What was the highest sale price paid for a home in Mar 07 and how many home sales is the average based on?

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2.9 in Rosemary. Off the beach.

2.9 in Rosemary. Off the beach.

:idontno: