Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.
Real estate as an asset class doesn?t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).
Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can?t find a CIO who isn?t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.
You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let?s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 ? 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.
Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a?s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc?you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.
We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80?s and have heard varying degree?s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like ?hold on? and ?weather the storm.? You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).
For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.
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234
SoWal Expert
Fabian, hold onto to that 40 acres in Red Bay and you don't have to worry about your neighbors, except for an occasional bullet, from familiy fueding, coming through your tall privacy fence. I am not wishing for prices to fall back to 2002 because I own real estate here, but one of the things I like so much when I moved here was that new homes were affordable to normal people. I could see artists wanting to move here and make this a cool place. That time raced by, and now we have mostly upper middle class and upper class buying here. I like a little diversity in my life, and fortunately, there are still some normal people who live here. Your comments about not wanting just anyone to live next door are questionable. I don't want crackheads and methheads living next door to me either, but I never saw them racing in to buy property when property was cheap, and I certainly don't see them racing to buy property now.
Banned
well lets hope nobody starts shooting but its my belief that within 10 years you will see a great Exodus away from your area. Please note this is not what would make me happy its just I feel the old timers knew something that many will find out about in the future. One of the biggest problems I see your area having is water,yes that product we all need to survive. And without being ugly to my present Realtor lets just say I would not have been happy about the way he wrote the property up and the pictures if I really wanted to sell. Its not for me to do his or her job but in the future you are down that way go by and look at my Dad's back deck over looking that basin. You can see all the way across that basin and I can tell you about it but until you've seen it you can't imagine how beautiful it is. Besides that on my property one needs only to look at a top map and he will see that there is a spring there which one day will probably come in handy if this global warming is going to take place. I have been told the day will come when I will get what I ask for it if I then choose to sell. With having a baby coming soon I prefer to think she and her sister will put it to some good use.
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SoWal Expert
Seriously, don't you think that you would be better off telling this information to your Realtor, regarding their choice for photos, and info? You can give him or her some constructive criticism and give them a chance to correct it and maybe sell your property, though instead, you complain to us about the job he or she is doing, or not doing, and we can do nothing about it. If you don't like your agent is doing, let him or her know. Otherwise, you are discrediting her behind his or her back, while your Realtor is completely unaware. Pick up the phone, or I will shoot them an email for you, and have them come check out these continued view points you have regarding him or her. The choice is yours. You do it or I will. While you are at it, tell both of your Realtors. Seems like you complained about both of them on this board.
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Banned
Fabian, hold onto to that 40 acres in Red Bay and you don't have to worry about your neighbors, except for an occasional bullet, from family feuding, coming through your tall privacy fence.
The statement was not meant to be complaining to anyone but just a response to your statement of me holding on to my property. nor am I in anyway singling out my Realtor because this type of behavior is prevalent among most of them not all. I was also referring to other posts that I was saying great things about Red Bay because I was some how trying to sell my property there for 1.2 peanuts. Which is my belief that the property is way undervalue. My feeling is that this is the norm not the exception and thats why I am not taking it personal. It is my belief through dialog with you and others we have not even begun to see the beginning of bad times coming for Realtors and it is only a matter of time before the auctioneer replaces your local Realtor if we continue with this price dropping.Trust me my Realtor reads this site and he or she is a big boy or girl and they know my feelings already. I surmise they are not as thin skin as some would be an continue doing what there going to do anyway regardless of what I say. Refer to the Thread Red Bay a great place to live or something. And a person I have spoken with before tried coming on the site and implying I was out there beating the bushes for buyers of my property. My point is that although my parents are, I don't think I am actively pushing for a sale on my Red bay property now for my Lagoon property yes I would love to quickly get off this beach and go build my dream house on one of those steep heads.I would tell you that my place on grand lagoon is no dump either and give you the mls# to look at the pictures but hell I dont know how to pull it up. Maybe you can help me my property is priced for $349,000 I think and you should see pictures of sea gulls in the back ground over looking grand lagoon in Panama City Beach. You Will be able to look at the inside and there should be some paintings on the walls so as not to have anyone thinking I don't practice what I preach when it comes to prints.
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Meow
Vanna...can I buy a comma? Please?
SoWal Insider
I would tell you that my place on grand lagoon is no dump either and give you the mls# to look at the pictures but hell I dont know how to pull it up.
Just post the MLS #, someone else will do the rest.
.
Beach Fanatic
Vanna...can I buy a comma? Please?
:lolabove:
Or a ??
Banned
I don't think you understan I don't know the mls# either:(
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Beach Fanatic
365887
Beach Fanatic
Bay Co.
SoWal Insider
Vanna...can I buy a comma? Please?Need aspirin after reading that?
SoWal Expert
Fabian, in your post #153 written today, you report that your "current Realtor" is not presenting your property in the best way. The problem with that statement is the context, because that post is in regards to your property in Red Bay, and that listing expired. Your current Realtor is the one who is listing your home in PCB. Does the Realtor who listed your Red Bay property know of your dissatisfaction?
by the way, your mls number for your PCB property is 365887.
While it may be true, I cannot believe your Realtor will not share this information with you. Do you even talk to him?
by the way, your mls number for your PCB property is 365887.
While it may be true, I cannot believe your Realtor will not share this information with you. Do you even talk to him?
Beach Fanatic
SJ- Try 462141. This is acive.
SoWal Expert
SJ- Try 462141. This is acive.Thanks. Why was it removed from the vacant land category, but not the farm category? So are you the listing agent with whom fabian is dissatisfied? I would love to hear your thoughts, but understand that might not be too appropriate if you are his Realtor for the Red Bay property.
Beach Fanatic
SJ- I am not his Realtor on either property. However, I have been to his property and it is as he says it is. Tremendous views with very large oaks and other timber. I did market his Dad"s property as it is also very beautiful. They are situated on the Red Bay ridge (so to speak) with awesome visuals. These properties hit the market a little late for what the sellers wanted. It will catch back up to them, they will just need to be paitient with the market. I do hope that his Mom and Dad's property does sell for their sake. They are very, very nice people.
Beach Fanatic
Vanna...can I buy a comma? Please?:floor:
Banned
Thank you steve my parents like you alot too.
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Beach Comber
Take a look at this listing.......NICE. MLS 463496
Beach Comber
how is that listing relevant to this thread?
Beach Comber
I apologize if it is out of place, I am new to this forum and just noticed the end there with a Red Bay listing. I just skipped around to try to catch up. From what I did read the thread was about how some properties are listed much lower than other comps and that if all Realtors got together to set a high price ...... BTW, I think that would violate an anti trust law.....
Beach Fanatic
:blink:
SoWal Expert
Join on in the funn, reedstu. Since not everyone has mls access, perhaps you will share the info of this listing, and show how that compares to fabian's 40 acres on the river.
Banned
It would be nice Joe if you saw my property before trying to compare it to anything in Wal co.
You may think you have seen beautiful property, but until you have seen my dad's property I think you need to hold off with the comparison's
And for goodness sakes, please don't go by those photo's that were made of the property. It saddens me that people can claim to be Realtors and do these sort of things.
You may think you have seen beautiful property, but until you have seen my dad's property I think you need to hold off with the comparison's
And for goodness sakes, please don't go by those photo's that were made of the property. It saddens me that people can claim to be Realtors and do these sort of things.
Edited
SoWal Expert
I apologize if it is out of place, I am new to this forum and just noticed the end there with a Red Bay listing. I just skipped around to try to catch up. From what I did read the thread was about how some properties are listed much lower than other comps and that if all Realtors got together to set a high price ...... BTW, I think that would violate an anti trust law.....
It would be nice Joe if you saw my property before trying to compare it to anything in Wal co.
You may think you have seen beautiful property, but until you have seen my dad's property I think you need to hold off with the comparison's
And for goodness sakes, please don't go by those photo's that were made of the property. It saddens me that people can claim to be Realtors and do these sort of things.
Maybe you really cannot read, fabian. While I did compare general prices in Red Bay to Freeport, I am not the one comparing your particular property to the listing which reedstu mentioned. reedstu brought up the comparison. I simple asked him to give some substanance to what he was saying. He noted a price difference, but we all know that a property can be unique, so I was suggesting that HE compare the two, maybe pointing out differences between the two, justifying the price change.
You are still potty mouthing your Realtor to us. Go tell the one person who can do something to change that instead of making a public mockery out of your Realtor on this board.
Somewhere on the planet, a bug is missing.
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Beach Lover
Somewhere on the planet, a bug is missing.
:floor:
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