But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?in view of blackstone buying Hilton Hotels ( i wonder if paris is part of the deal) is it worth buying JOE as a speculation?? I have been waiting for JOE to hit 40. Granted that HLT and JOE are separate biz models but there has been alot of activity in the reit sector regard buyouts this year and I am wondering if the next activity will be in companies like JOE or even some homebuilders who are selling at or below book value. there is an excellent research report by smith barney that was published thursday that is really good, discussing homebuilders and the recovery that THEY think will start next year. after the reset of adjustables in the next six months and the subsequent flush, maybe the recovery will start next year But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?
But in any event is it worth putting some money into JOE now (25%) and waiting ?Replies
246
SoWal Insider
Which Shelly quoted and replied:
I thought your talk of purchasing and selling CROX was within the same time during the two week period when someone mentioned JOE going up 10%. You said you did better in CROX.
My bad...it appeared to me we were playing a game where we can pull the dates out of our arses
I've owned CROX for well over a year--the reference to Jun 15 was when the stock split 2-to-1. Before the split it traded just over $90 (after @$45 and change)...now those shares are trading @ $57. Already took some LT capital gains profits off the top after the split....if more tots lose their toenails in escalators, or nurses flat-line more patients, I expect I'll get stopped out (with profit to spare)--till then, it's all good. I'm not into counting my chicks before they hatch--nor profits before they're realized and taxed.
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Edited
Beach FanaticAuthor
I own 2500 joe at a cost of 33.80. the party has just started since the markets will expect and demand further rate reductions. the perception will be that the housing industry and the general economy will be saved from recession. i believe homebuilders and housing related stocks will all move up at least 25% between now and the end of the year. I intend to remain long JOE well into the 4th qtr.
__________________
__________________
Beach Fanatic
Go short escalator companies...
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Got Crocs? Be careful on the escalator
By SARAH KARUSH, Associated Press WriterMon Sep 17, 7:47 PM ET
At rail stations and shopping malls around the world, reports are popping up of people, particularly young children, getting their toes caught in escalators. The one common theme seems to be the clunky soft-soled clogs known by the name of the most popular brand, Crocs.
One of the nation's largest subway systems ? the Washington Metro ? has even posted ads warning riders about wearing such shoes on its moving stairways. The ads feature a photo of a crocodile, though they don't mention Crocs by name.
Four-year-old Rory McDermott got a Croc-clad foot caught in an escalator last month at a mall in northern Virginia. His mother managed to yank him free, but the nail on his big toe was almost completely ripped off, causing heavy bleeding.
At first, Rory's mother had no idea what caused the boy's foot to get caught. It was only later, when someone at the hospital remarked on Rory's shoes, that she began to suspect the Crocs and did an Internet search.
"I came home and typed in 'Croc' and 'escalator,' and all these stories came up," said Jodi McDermott, of Vienna, Va. "If I had known, those would never have been worn."
According to reports appearing across the United States and as far away as Singapore and Japan, entrapments occur because of two of the biggest selling points of shoes like Crocs: their flexibility and grip. Some report the shoes get caught in the "teeth" at the bottom or top of the escalator, or in the crack between the steps and the side of the escalator.
The reports of serious injuries have all involved young children. Crocs are commonly worn by children as young as 2. The company introduced shoes in its smallest size, 4/5, this past spring.
Niwot, Colo.-based Crocs Inc. said it does not keep records of the reasons for customer-service calls. But the company said it is aware of "very few" problems relating to accidents involving the shoes, which are made of a soft, synthetic resin.
"Thankfully, escalator accidents like the one in Virginia are rare," the company said in a statement.
In Japan, the government warned consumers last week that it has received 39 reports of sandals ? mostly Crocs or similar products ? getting stuck in escalators from late August through early September. Most of the reports appear to have involved small children, some as young as two years old.
Kazuo Motoya of Japan's National Institute of Technology and Evaluation said children may have more escalator accidents in part because they "bounce around when they stand on escalators, instead of watching where they place their feet."
In Singapore, a 2-year-old girl wearing rubber clogs ? it's unclear what brand ? had her big toe completely ripped off in an escalator accident last year, according to local media reports.
And at the Atlanta airport, a 3-year-old boy wearing Crocs suffered a deep gash across the top of his toes in June. That was one of seven shoe entrapments at the airport since May 1, and all but two of them involved Crocs, said Roy Springer, operations manager for the company that runs the airport terminal.
One U.S. retailer that caters to children, Mattel subsidiary American Girl, has posted signs in three locations directing customers wearing Crocs or flip-flop sandals to use elevators instead of escalators.
During the past two years, so-called "shoe entrapments" in the Washington subway have gone from being relatively rare to happening four or five times a week in the summer, though none has caused serious injuries, said Dave Lacosse, who oversees the subway's 588 escalators, the most of any U.S. transit system.
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said escalator accidents caused more than 10,000 injuries last year, but the agency has few records of specific shoe problems. Only two shoe entrapments have been reported by consumers since the beginning of 2006. One reported in May involved "rubber footwear."
Agency spokesman Ed Kang urged people who have had problems to report them on the commission's Web site.
Crocs officials said they were working with the Elevator Escalator Safety Foundation on public education initiatives. But the group's executive director, Barbara Allen, said that's not true.
Allen said a Crocs official called her in September 2006 about possible cooperation, even suggesting the company might put a tag in its shoes with the foundation's Web address. But since that first contact, Crocs has not called, and nobody from the company will return Allen's calls, she said.
Washington Metro's Lacosse and other escalator experts say the best way to prevent shoe entrapments is to face the direction the stairs are moving, keep feet away from the sides and step over the teeth at the end.
Lacosse, of the Washington subway system, said he is personally skittish of Crocs and other soft-soled shoes.
"Would I wear them? No," he said. "And I tell my children not to wear them either." ___
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Back to Story - Help
Got Crocs? Be careful on the escalator
By SARAH KARUSH, Associated Press WriterMon Sep 17, 7:47 PM ET
At rail stations and shopping malls around the world, reports are popping up of people, particularly young children, getting their toes caught in escalators. The one common theme seems to be the clunky soft-soled clogs known by the name of the most popular brand, Crocs.
One of the nation's largest subway systems ? the Washington Metro ? has even posted ads warning riders about wearing such shoes on its moving stairways. The ads feature a photo of a crocodile, though they don't mention Crocs by name.
Four-year-old Rory McDermott got a Croc-clad foot caught in an escalator last month at a mall in northern Virginia. His mother managed to yank him free, but the nail on his big toe was almost completely ripped off, causing heavy bleeding.
At first, Rory's mother had no idea what caused the boy's foot to get caught. It was only later, when someone at the hospital remarked on Rory's shoes, that she began to suspect the Crocs and did an Internet search.
"I came home and typed in 'Croc' and 'escalator,' and all these stories came up," said Jodi McDermott, of Vienna, Va. "If I had known, those would never have been worn."
According to reports appearing across the United States and as far away as Singapore and Japan, entrapments occur because of two of the biggest selling points of shoes like Crocs: their flexibility and grip. Some report the shoes get caught in the "teeth" at the bottom or top of the escalator, or in the crack between the steps and the side of the escalator.
The reports of serious injuries have all involved young children. Crocs are commonly worn by children as young as 2. The company introduced shoes in its smallest size, 4/5, this past spring.
Niwot, Colo.-based Crocs Inc. said it does not keep records of the reasons for customer-service calls. But the company said it is aware of "very few" problems relating to accidents involving the shoes, which are made of a soft, synthetic resin.
"Thankfully, escalator accidents like the one in Virginia are rare," the company said in a statement.
In Japan, the government warned consumers last week that it has received 39 reports of sandals ? mostly Crocs or similar products ? getting stuck in escalators from late August through early September. Most of the reports appear to have involved small children, some as young as two years old.
Kazuo Motoya of Japan's National Institute of Technology and Evaluation said children may have more escalator accidents in part because they "bounce around when they stand on escalators, instead of watching where they place their feet."
In Singapore, a 2-year-old girl wearing rubber clogs ? it's unclear what brand ? had her big toe completely ripped off in an escalator accident last year, according to local media reports.
And at the Atlanta airport, a 3-year-old boy wearing Crocs suffered a deep gash across the top of his toes in June. That was one of seven shoe entrapments at the airport since May 1, and all but two of them involved Crocs, said Roy Springer, operations manager for the company that runs the airport terminal.
One U.S. retailer that caters to children, Mattel subsidiary American Girl, has posted signs in three locations directing customers wearing Crocs or flip-flop sandals to use elevators instead of escalators.
During the past two years, so-called "shoe entrapments" in the Washington subway have gone from being relatively rare to happening four or five times a week in the summer, though none has caused serious injuries, said Dave Lacosse, who oversees the subway's 588 escalators, the most of any U.S. transit system.
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission said escalator accidents caused more than 10,000 injuries last year, but the agency has few records of specific shoe problems. Only two shoe entrapments have been reported by consumers since the beginning of 2006. One reported in May involved "rubber footwear."
Agency spokesman Ed Kang urged people who have had problems to report them on the commission's Web site.
Crocs officials said they were working with the Elevator Escalator Safety Foundation on public education initiatives. But the group's executive director, Barbara Allen, said that's not true.
Allen said a Crocs official called her in September 2006 about possible cooperation, even suggesting the company might put a tag in its shoes with the foundation's Web address. But since that first contact, Crocs has not called, and nobody from the company will return Allen's calls, she said.
Washington Metro's Lacosse and other escalator experts say the best way to prevent shoe entrapments is to face the direction the stairs are moving, keep feet away from the sides and step over the teeth at the end.
Lacosse, of the Washington subway system, said he is personally skittish of Crocs and other soft-soled shoes.
"Would I wear them? No," he said. "And I tell my children not to wear them either." ___
SoWal Expert
Are the shoes really that dangerous or are the wearers just that stupid?
Maybe people should actually be monitoring their kids on escalators?
Are wheelie shoes and crocs on escalators the latest form of natural selection?
Maybe people should actually be monitoring their kids on escalators?
Are wheelie shoes and crocs on escalators the latest form of natural selection?
SoWal Insider
Are the shoes really that dangerous or are the wearers just that stupid?
....Or maybe the parents that dress the kids are stupid
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Beach Fanatic
lol
Beach Fanatic
The CROCs story is old news.
Beach Fanatic
What isn't really?
SoWal Expert
Shoe tangent. Kate wears Holeys now- a much better fit than Crocs and a Keen kind of design. Shoelaces can be added for fun and/or practice.
Eastern Lake Nursery is the only local place to carry them that I know.
Eastern Lake Nursery is the only local place to carry them that I know.
hmmmm......can't remember
Are the shoes really that dangerous or are the wearers just that stupid?
Maybe people should actually be monitoring their kids on escalators?
Are wheelie shoes and crocs on escalators the latest form of natural selection?
How are they more dangerous than flip flops or loose shoelaces?
I still don't understand the escalator thing. I remember being very, very small and riding escalators. It was the same deal as car doors--keep fingers and toes out of the cracks. I'm not at all scared of them, but I watch my fingers and toes and shoe parts when I'm on them.
As for crocs, my massage therapist recommends them. I have Morton's toe (where the "index" toe is longer than my big toe,) and he says that it makes me roll off differently, which aggravates my sciatic nerve. Because the shape of the toe box on the crocs compensates for it, I don't have sciatic pain when I wear them.
Great for gardening and wandering across the yard to my parents' house, too!Beach Fanatic
Lmao at crox today, short squeeze or news inc?
Beach Fanatic
I own 2500 joe at a cost of 33.80. the party has just started since the markets will expect and demand further rate reductions. the perception will be that the housing industry and the general economy will be saved from recession. i believe homebuilders and housing related stocks will all move up at least 25% between now and the end of the year. I intend to remain long JOE well into the 4th qtr.
__________________
I am often stunned by your picks and the fact that they come through. I think you may be very adept at day trading but the short term buy high sell higher phenomenon is over on this stock. If you hold it for 10 years its a fine stock.
Beach FanaticAuthor
I am often stunned by your picks and the fact that they come through. I think you may be very adept at day trading but the short term buy high sell higher phenomenon is over on this stock. If you hold it for 10 years its a fine stock.
I am not sure if that is a compliment,
but thank you anyway. I am NOT a day trader....never have been. Once in awhile I will take a shot and buy a stock I think has been oversold....that is my take on JOE. I think by year end it could be through 40....but who knows. An example of what I do is.... today I bought 500 WAG ( Walgreen). WAG is a very good company and I think the selling was exaggerated. 500s is not enough to matter but a small position gets and keeps my attention. I will add if the stock continues to go lower. JOE is the least quality of all the stocks in my portfolio. I have listed my other stocks in previous posts. They are all the biggest and best of the blue chips. Most raise their dividends every year by 10%. I intend to have them in my portfolio for life. I had a career on Wall St. for over 30 years. There is a method to my madness. In any event it has worked very well for me.p.s. I am not sure how you arrived at the buy high sell higher statement since I scaled down on JOE from 40 to 30.50. The stock is near
a multi year low.Beach Fanatic
I am not sure if that is a compliment,
p.s. I am not sure how you arrived at the buy high sell higher statement since I scaled down on JOE from 40 to 30.50. The stock is near
I was complimenting you on previous gains when I doubted the choice. I have always thought to myself "that guy knows the stock market". My opinion is JOE has been a bad play since the middle of 2005. I am sure people made money trading it, but it was and is very poor fundamentally IMO. It continued to rise after the retirement/second home feeding frenzy and that is why I say buy high sell higher. Not necessarily your mantra but the only explanation of the increases in a hurting real estate market for a company with a bunch of swamp land, a little prime beachfront and a real P/E of 80 then. I think you trade more stocks than the average investor but seem to know a great deal about the industry. Many things that happen in the stock market astound me and that's why I don't move around in stocks much. I'm a buy and hold type of guy and I don't have the time to devote to really trade. I do have a little money in the portfolio that I really take chances on. I call it "the slush fund". JOE might be that for you, I don't know but it isn't a low risk play. Real estate is what I do know and JOE doesn't look so hot to me at the present time. Hopefully I am wrong and you make money again. I realize you have a good buy in position in relative terms and the bottom can't be far if it hasn't been reached already, but think of the people that bought only 5 months ago at 60. Or even when this thread started?
Beach FanaticAuthor
yeah...I hear you. It is always very helpful to get the opinion of someone who is involved day to day in real estate. I appreciate your take on things. I think it will be a long time ( 2 or 3 years ) for the real estate market to be in equilibrium. Sellers have to capitulate to clear the inventory. The more I think about it the more I think I ultimately will lose on JOE. But my game plan is to ride it until year end and if I am losing money...sell it for a tax loss. If I am making money , I will re-evaluate in early 2008. Thanks again, Pirate.
Beach Fanatic
St. Joe Company to accelerate value creation (34.15 )
Co announces it intends to significantly accelerate its value creation process in Northwest Florida and is restructuring the co to accomplish that objective. The restructured JOE is designed to increase its financial flexibility and strengthen its balance sheet. To improve its financial performance the co intends to: Significantly reduce capital expenditures, meaningfully decrease selling, general and administrative expenses, divest non-core assets, aggressively lower debt and eliminate the current dividend and over time return value to shareholders through the share repurchase program. In connection with this restructuring, JOE expects to take a charge to earnings of approx $7 mln consisting of severance benefits to employees. This charge will be expensed substantially in 2007 and 2008. JOE's restructuring is expected to generate annual savings of approximately $10 mln in 2008, approx $18 mln in 2009 and approx $20 mln in later years. In addition, JOE expects to take charges aggregating approx $25 to $30 mln in Q307 related to contract termination costs, the write-off of capitalized costs at certain projects, the impairment of completed spec homes in several communities and the write-off of goodwill related to Sunshine State Cypress Mill.
Co announces it intends to significantly accelerate its value creation process in Northwest Florida and is restructuring the co to accomplish that objective. The restructured JOE is designed to increase its financial flexibility and strengthen its balance sheet. To improve its financial performance the co intends to: Significantly reduce capital expenditures, meaningfully decrease selling, general and administrative expenses, divest non-core assets, aggressively lower debt and eliminate the current dividend and over time return value to shareholders through the share repurchase program. In connection with this restructuring, JOE expects to take a charge to earnings of approx $7 mln consisting of severance benefits to employees. This charge will be expensed substantially in 2007 and 2008. JOE's restructuring is expected to generate annual savings of approximately $10 mln in 2008, approx $18 mln in 2009 and approx $20 mln in later years. In addition, JOE expects to take charges aggregating approx $25 to $30 mln in Q307 related to contract termination costs, the write-off of capitalized costs at certain projects, the impairment of completed spec homes in several communities and the write-off of goodwill related to Sunshine State Cypress Mill.
Beach Fanatic
On Bloomberg:
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- St. Joe Co., Florida's largest private landowner, plans to eliminate 760 jobs, sell about 100,000 acres of land and scrap its dividend to contend with the worst housing slump in 16 years.
The company will also sell the Sunshine State Cypress Mill, 190 homes and about 1,200 developed home sites, Jacksonville-based St. Joe said today in a statement. It will take a charge of up to $30 million in the third quarter and have $7 million in severance costs this year and next.
St. Joe is shifting from building homes in Florida, where sales plummeted 41 percent in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors, to helping create towns. The company's profit has dropped four of the last six quarters and sales haven't risen since the third quarter of 2005
........
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- St. Joe Co., Florida's largest private landowner, plans to eliminate 760 jobs, sell about 100,000 acres of land and scrap its dividend to contend with the worst housing slump in 16 years.
The company will also sell the Sunshine State Cypress Mill, 190 homes and about 1,200 developed home sites, Jacksonville-based St. Joe said today in a statement. It will take a charge of up to $30 million in the third quarter and have $7 million in severance costs this year and next.
St. Joe is shifting from building homes in Florida, where sales plummeted 41 percent in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors, to helping create towns. The company's profit has dropped four of the last six quarters and sales haven't risen since the third quarter of 2005
........
Beach Fanatic
SoWal Expert
I don't see any mention of JOE selling off the WaterColor Inn, but I'd guess that would account for about 50 of those employees they are ditching, if the deal goes through.
but I'd guess that would account for about 50 of those employees they are ditching, if the deal goes through.
SWGB
I don't see any mention of JOE selling off the WaterColor Inn,
Apparently thru the grape vine the Inn has dropped from a 5 star to 2 star. In addition it is rumored that there is Black mold in the entire building and that they were supposed to shut it down last year to fix the problem. The other rumor is that they are shutting it down to make the repairs and then sell it off as a time share. Again rumors not press statements.
SoWal Expert
I was told a year or so ago that the Black mold rumor was started by a competitor and had no basis in fact.
Beach FanaticAuthor
SoWal Insider
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:roll:
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I'm Home!
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:roll:
ST JOE...Downsizing Our Way to Profitability
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I'm Home!.
Edited
Beach FanaticAuthor
The latest and greatest restructuring is having the desired effect...JOE stock up $1.45 today to 35.50. That is what JOE really cares about. I am a homeowner at WS and a shareholder of JOE. I gotta tell you....JOE senior management really scares me. I intend to sell my 2500 shares in this run up. They have no vision and no committment and now they will just be a dirt company. Because they have no committment and no guts, they have given up all the upside when things eventually do turn up. Thanks for the profit, JOE.
SoWal Insider
The latest and greatest restructuring is having the desired effect...JOE stock up $1.45 today to 35.50. That is what JOE really cares about. I am a homeowner at WS and a shareholder of JOE. I gotta tell you....JOE senior management really scares me. I intend to sell my 2500 shares in this run up. They have no vision and no committment and now they will just be a dirt company. Because they have no committment and no guts, they have given up all the upside when things eventually do turn up. Thanks for the profit, JOE.
They're down to $34.79 in afterhours.
Just a thought: Wouldn't it be better to just write off a small loss to this years gains instead of taking a short-term capital gains hit?
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