I post on the board sometime, but I've created a new name because I don't have Shelly's backbone and I don't want to be harrassed.
Most everything I here are real estate horror stories. Foreclosures, dropping housing prices, huge inventories, but by far most of the posts in the forum are positive - with the exception of Shelly who gets pounded by most everyone for being, in my opinion, too much of a realists.
My thing is that it seems to me most everyone who posts regularly in this section, most often, most positive, etc. have stake in the real estate game, either investors, realtors, developers, business owners all of which have strong personal interests in a strong real estate market or at least of the perception of an improving market.
I am leary these days of asking investing advice of anyone who makes a living in the real estate market. Car salesmen will always tell you its a great time to buy.
Hey. The market is AWFUL. It's the worst real estate market since the great depression, and how could anyone with straight face say it's a great time to invest in real estate unless you have the money and intention of holding on to it for many years.
So, my question is this, by a show of hands, and in the interest of full self disclosure, how many of the frequent posters on here, including the webmaster, have a personal interest, whether through themselves or there spouses, in real estate to include realtors, developers, homeowners with property currently on the market, marketers that advertise real estate through print or the web so that those of us who are have no interest can know who is being completely unbiased and who may have other motivations for constantly wearing their rose colored sunglasses at night.
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119
SoWal Insider
SJ,
Do you have inventory numbers to go with those stats?
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Do you have inventory numbers to go with those stats?
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SoWal Insider
Reminds me of another gimmick the Gov't does to distract the clueless -- give a tax "refund" check after overcharging people in the first place, while using that money to invest for the year. It's also called, withholding.
All some folks have got to do is change their W-4 to decrease the withholding and pay Uncle Sugar what you underpaid at the end of the year.
I think it was on this board that someone said they like to overpay so they can "save up" and use the tax refund check to pay off their credit card balance.
You can't make this stuff up folks.
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SoWal Expert
Shelly, Which in particular? It would be nearly impossible to track inventory of resales only, but I have the total inventory average per year. Are you requesting condos listed as Gulf front?
SoWal Insider
Shelly, Which in particular? It would be nearly impossible to track inventory of resales only, but I have the total inventory average per year. Are you requesting condos listed as Gulf front?
That will do. Hey, don't go to any trouble....just askin'
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SoWal Expert
All some folks have got to do is change their W-4 to decrease the withholding and pay Uncle Sugar what you underpaid at the end of the year.Sounds easy enough doesn't it? When I used to employ people, I sat and watched probably 90% of them fill out their W4's with a big ? on their face. The gov't doesn't make it easy for people to understand, and then you have the people who like the "bonus" (aka- Refund) checks from the Gov't. "It's like money I didn't know I had." (Hear that one often.)
I think it was on this board that someone said they like to overpay so they can "save up" and use the tax refund check to pay off their credit card balance.
You can't make this stuff up folks.
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SoWal Expert
Shelly, remind me tomorrow and I will dig them up and post them. I'm about tired of looking at numbers all day.
SoWal Insider
Shelly, remind me tomorrow and I will dig them up and post them. I'm about tired of looking at numbers all day.
Forget it...just go walk the beach tomorrow and leave the numbers behind.
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SoWal Insider
Sounds easy enough doesn't it? When I used to employ people, I sat and watched probably 90% of them fill out their W4's with a big ? on their face. The gov't doesn't make it easy for people to understand, and then you have the people who like the "bonus" (aka- Refund) checks from the Gov't. "It's like money I didn't know I had." (Hear that one often.)
That's the reason the "Stimulus Package" will work on the American public...they'll say "WHEEEEE! Free Money!!!"....then later it will be
:shock:
Bought to you courtesy of the American Edumakatum and Banking Systems with the help and support of the debt-hungry family.
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Edited
SoWal Expert
The more I think of it, the $800 will likely go to pay the existing bills, which more likely helps out the lenders, rather than actually increasing sales of goods.
SoWal Insider
The more I think of it, the $800 will likely go to pay the existing bills, which more likely helps out the lenders, rather than actually increasing sales of goods.
Bernanke was actually saying that during his hearing yesterday. He said that during the last "Free Money Giveaway" too much of it went to paying off debt or went into savings and didn't quite stimulate the economy as much as they wanted. That's why they're thinking how they can get it into the hands of people who will go out and plunk it down on an iPod, a 4-course family dinner at Red Lobster and new set of rims for their "ride."
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Beach Fanatic
Fisher -
Again I would use the cost basis to value the dirt. Cost of infrastructure alone (roads, sewer, storm water retention, utilties, etc) in sowal runs about 30k per lot for your basic community, then add the cost for the dirt within 1/2 mile from the beach - thats probably worth 40k per raw lot in todays market in no specific premium location, maybe 30k at rock bottom wholesale price. So a baseline cost of around 60-70k cost with no Amenities. Add Watercolor equivalent amenities and your easily at a lot cost basis of around 250k per lot. A community like old florida village would run about 100k per lot total cost basis.
Replacement cost is difficult to determine in a market where land prices are crashing and construction costs are falling. Replacement cost one year ago was much higher than replacement cost today and that trend could easily continue for a while. If there was no standing inventory of lots, your analysis would be reasonable. However, there is a glut of standing inventory which is likely to be sold at well below the cost of development (eg:Naturewalk).
SoWal Insider
Bernanke was actually saying that during his hearing yesterday. He said that during the last "Free Money Giveaway" too much of it went to paying off debt or went into savings and didn't quite stimulate the economy as much as they wanted. That's why they're thinking how they can get it into the hands of people who will go out and plunk it down on an iPod, a 4-course family dinner at Red Lobster and new set of rims for their "ride."That Ipod and dinner are fully 65-70 percent of our economy.
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SoWal Insider
That Ipod and dinner are fully 65-70 percent of our economy.
:roll: Gee...do you think we can work that into our National Anthem?
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Beach Fanatic
That Ipod and dinner are fully 65-70 percent of our economy.Exactly. Along with Chinese toasters. And that is the problem, IMHO. Or one of the problems, anyway.
Beach Fanatic
Forget it...just go walk the beach tomorrow and leave the numbers behind.
After looking at the Dow for the week, I did just that. It didn't help my bottom line, but my attitude and the dog's both improved.
Beach Lover
Tinting Messes?
uhh...Clinton Confesses
or.....benching presses
or.....blue stained dresses
or.....venting stresses
uhh...Clinton Confesses
or.....benching presses
or.....blue stained dresses
or.....venting stresses
SoWal Insider
:roll: Gee...do you think we can work that into our National Anthem?.
And the IPODS do blare, the credit bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.
O say, does that star spangled banner yet wave
O’er the land of the spending spree, and the home of the brave?
SoWal Expert
That's the reason the "Stimulus Package" will work on the American public...they'll say "WHEEEEE! Free Money!!!"....then later it will be
Bought to you courtesy of the American Edumakatum and Banking Systems with the help and support of the debt-hungry family.
It's really sad how little people know about the basics of money and financial planning.
The concept of "saving for a rainy day" and "if you can't afford it, don't buy it" are completely foreign to most people. That and only using credit cards for emergencies UNLESS you pay them off in full every month.
The WTF looks I get when I gently suggest that if you haven't paid off your student loans or house, maybe you don't need to be leasing a Mercedes or buying Louis Vuitton purses. :roll:
SoWal Expert
In some cases, paying off one's house may not be as financially sound as paying the mortgage. If you can borrow the money at let's say a rate of 5.5% (today's rate), and write off 25% of that, the actual cost to borrow the money is 3.75%. There are other investments which should yield a greater net than 3.75%. So, one would need to do the math to decide which is better, paying off the house, or investing the money into something else. While buying a purse or leasing a car is not an investment, those are lifestyle choices and some people have no problem being able to afford the luxuries even though their home is not paid off. Of course, in your example, you are probably referring to the people who cannot afford the luxuries, and are living beyond their means.
SoWal Expert
Yes, the idea was that you should pay off your long term lingering debts (you know, the ones w/ the high interest rates) and your bills before you splurge and ADD more to your debts.
IMO investing should be done w/ your extra money, not the money you can get by playing a financial shell game.
Conservative yes, going to bite you in the arse on a rainy day, no. ;-)
I am sure there are people w/ the financial savvy and resources to pull off what you describe, but the average debt ridden American doesn't need more ways to play the system and avoid paying their bills.
IMO investing should be done w/ your extra money, not the money you can get by playing a financial shell game.
Conservative yes, going to bite you in the arse on a rainy day, no. ;-)
I am sure there are people w/ the financial savvy and resources to pull off what you describe, but the average debt ridden American doesn't need more ways to play the system and avoid paying their bills.
SoWal Expert
I see, but student loans and 5.5% loans for homes are not high interest rates. They are about the cheapest thing going. Some people feel more comfortable having them paid off, but when you can make more money by investing in alternatives, there is nothing financially wrong with leaving them be.
I fully agree with your last paragraph, pertaining to the average American playing the system.
I fully agree with your last paragraph, pertaining to the average American playing the system.
SoWal Expert
Credit cards do not have low interest rates, and these people are not delaying the payment of their mortgages etc. to make money at a higher rate - they are spending the $ on items w/ no investment return and racking up MORE debt.
I understand what you're saying, but these are not paragons of financial savvy, but examples of what is wrong w/ how americans look at finances.
I understand what you're saying, but these are not paragons of financial savvy, but examples of what is wrong w/ how americans look at finances.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
That Ipod and dinner are fully 65-70 percent of our economy.
And don't forget that even though the iPod says Apple on the box, it is made in China, same as the cheap toaster.
Beach Fanatic
In some cases, paying off one's house may not be as financially sound as paying the mortgage. If you can borrow the money at let's say a rate of 5.5% (today's rate), and write off 25% of that, the actual cost to borrow the money is 3.75%. There are other investments which should yield a greater net than 3.75%. So, one would need to do the math to decide which is better, paying off the house, or investing the money into something else. While buying a purse or leasing a car is not an investment, those are lifestyle choices and some people have no problem being able to afford the luxuries even though their home is not paid off. Of course, in your example, you are probably referring to the people who cannot afford the luxuries, and are living beyond their means.
Joe--Please point me toward a RISK FREE investment that will yield 5.5% and I will agree with you that it would be better to invest than to pay down your mortgage.
Paying off the mortgage gives you a risk free rate of return of exactly your mortgage rate. So, if you can't get a GUARANTEED rate of return on your investments that is higher than your mortgage rate, pay the mortgage off.
Beach Fanatic
Though not everyone gets to effectively write down their mortgage rate come tax time. If you bought a median priced home in Florida prior in about 2003 or earlier, and were conservative in borrowing (fixed rate, no house as ATM) then a lot of people are better off claiming standard deduction for married-jointly than by itemizing.
Married-jointly standard deduction this year is something like $17K this year. We bought the average Okaloosa County house in 2001 and interest and taxes aren't half of that. (Granted we're on year 5 of a 15 year note, but even on a 30 year, the math will work out in favor of standard for a lot of people.
Married-jointly standard deduction this year is something like $17K this year. We bought the average Okaloosa County house in 2001 and interest and taxes aren't half of that. (Granted we're on year 5 of a 15 year note, but even on a 30 year, the math will work out in favor of standard for a lot of people.
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