Calling The Bottom

How much did they each bring to the table?

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Actually, they all three worked deals with the bank. The banks let the deals close before the details were even worked out with seller. I was shocked. Some of these short sales are really hard and some are really easy but they all seem to work if your buyer will hang in. Most of the time when the bank does not respond to offers it is because it is too low. They do not have a system in place to counter. We got approval on one recently that the buyer came in higher then the listing agent had it listed for. The property has been on the market for months with offers on the table and no replies from the bank. We came in higher then asking after evaluating the loan and received a response in 2 weeks. They accepted and we close the end of the month. Buyers are wasting their time low balling an already low ball short sale.

We got approval on one recently that the buyer came in higher then the listing agent had it listed for.

Who offers MORE than the asking price for a house?

Who offers MORE than the asking price for a house?

The asking price on some of these short sales is irrelevant. You have to look at the loan to understand what the bank may want. Often times the agent is in the dark. We discovered a few weeks back the reason the bank does not reply to the offers is they are too low. They do not have a system in place to counter. Kind of odd. We knew the reason the bank was not replying was the price was too low. We bumped it up and everyone is happy. The buyer is getting a great deal and the bank moves forward.

....and then there is the increased charges to cover the folks who've opted to buy food and gas and forego the association fees on their "investment" condos.


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That is true - I am compiling a special assessment right now because of non-payment of many units in one complex where we have 10 units in foreclsoure - talk about screwing up a budget - and then this is just going to make it harder on the people that have been struggling to make their payments - most of these people live here - The 10 foreclosures were investors.......meanwhile they are collecting rent on some of these units and not paying the association fees or mortgage - but their renters are getting the benefits (that they are paying the guy in foreclosure for) It is just a vicious cycle right now.

beachlover2, if these properties were foreclosed upon, shouldn't you be assessing the lenders for those units which didn't pay, rather than the owners who did pay?

This from today's Florida Trend:

Thursday's Top Stories

What You Need To Know About Florida Today

THURSDAY, JUNE 5, 2008

STATEWIDE:
Overdue Loans to Florida Banks Quadruple
If that were not enough, the state's lenders have unusually low cash reserves to protect against mortgage defaults. About 41% of Florida-chartered banks were unprofitable the first three months of this year. That's twice the number of banks that bled red ink last year. These not-so-encouraging trends emerged from reports released the past week by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Experts blame a chain reaction ignited by a two-year plunge in real estate values. It's not just problem home mortgages, but also developers defaulting on loans used to buy land and finance condominium towers. "We're still on the downside of the curve. We've not reached a bottom," Miami banking expert Ken Thomas said. [Source: St. Petersburg Times]

I'm sure good realtors in the area will survive this without any major problems. There are always going to be unique situations so sales will take place. But to predict the overall direction of the market, you have to look at the aggregate of what's going on. From a buyers perspective, generally -

- most short sales are listed too high due to loans underwater
- short sales are not moving en mass off the market
- short sales are a good indicator of pre-foreclosure in the near future
- REO's are getting mixed pricing, REO listings from 3 months ago are overpriced, new REO's are coming in way under existing lists at more reasonable prices. (these have the potential of moving.)
- foreclosure activity in Walton County is rising
- a majority of homes due for foreclosure are not in the market yet
- inventory is very high (2 plus years?)
- there are a lot of white knuckle owners right now listing way above value, some are dropping price, but in small increments. (this correction will take a lot of time.)
- number of sales are still declining, both on single family homes and condos
- the spring season "happened" but was nothing compared to 2007

It's a very interesting market. :shock:

I'll go out on a limb and predict accelerated price declines overall, all across 30-A over the next year. I'll also say that IMHO, a majority of sales along the 30-A corridor that went through in March were overvalued.

I'm really interested in next spring. The number of foreclosed homes will be very large compared to what we see today, and given six months, all these small 5% price drops by individual owners should start to add up. Those owners who don't drop will go under, feeding more foreclosures into the market over the next year or so. So next spring is hard to predict, but it's success or failure will depend heavily on individual owners ability and willingness to discount prices. Considering we are in June and a majority of homes in nice communities are still way way way too high, I'm not optimistic for any sort of rebound in the near future.

For deal buyers like myself, rushing in to this doesn't make the best sense. You might find a deal here and there, but you'll probably still pay too much compared to what you might get it for in a year. Looking at the single family home sales for March, it seems a lot of buyers are seeing things the same way as I am.

beachlover2, if these properties were foreclosed upon, shouldn't you be assessing the lenders for those units which didn't pay, rather than the owners who did pay?

i mistyped there - they are in lis pendings - some foreclosures are taking over a year. Haven't paid us in forever but still not the final foreclosure

I'm sure good realtors in the area will survive this without any major problems. There are always going to be unique situations so sales will take place. But to predict the overall direction of the market, you have to look at the aggregate of what's going on. From a buyers perspective, generally -

- most short sales are listed too high due to loans underwater
- short sales are not moving en mass off the market
- short sales are a good indicator of pre-foreclosure in the near future
- REO's are getting mixed pricing, REO listings from 3 months ago are overpriced, new REO's are coming in way under existing lists at more reasonable prices. (these have the potential of moving.)
- foreclosure activity in Walton County is rising
- a majority of homes due for foreclosure are not in the market yet
- inventory is very high (2 plus years?)
- there are a lot of white knuckle owners right now listing way above value, some are dropping price, but in small increments. (this correction will take a lot of time.)
- number of sales are still declining, both on single family homes and condos
- the spring season "happened" but was nothing compared to 2007

It's a very interesting market. :shock:

I'll go out on a limb and predict accelerated price declines overall, all across 30-A over the next year. I'll also say that IMHO, a majority of sales along the 30-A corridor that went through in March were overvalued.

I'm really interested in next spring. The number of foreclosed homes will be very large compared to what we see today, and given six months, all these small 5% price drops by individual owners should start to add up. Those owners who don't drop will go under, feeding more foreclosures into the market over the next year or so. So next spring is hard to predict, but it's success or failure will depend heavily on individual owners ability and willingness to discount prices. Considering we are in June and a majority of homes in nice communities are still way way way too high, I'm not optimistic for any sort of rebound in the near future.

For deal buyers like myself, rushing in to this doesn't make the best sense. You might find a deal here and there, but you'll probably still pay too much compared to what you might get it for in a year. Looking at the single family home sales for March, it seems a lot of buyers are seeing things the same way as I am.

Are you aware that there are only approximately 20 short sales currently listed in areas 17 and 18 which includes most of 30-A? IMO spring season hasn't just "happened" it is happening!!

Are you aware that there are only approximately 20 short sales currently listed in areas 17 and 18 which includes most of 30-A? IMO spring season hasn't just "happened" it is happening!!

I'm surprised there are so few. I guess it's somewhat of a fruitless persuit for most as banks probably aren't interested in cutting the loans down as far as people need to go to sell.

On spring sales, I'm not sure I agree, at least for single family homes. Jan, Feb are historically low, March is the big spike, April and May decline off March, June has a small spike, and then a long decline into next year. Condos on the other hand tend to do well over the summer. Have to wait and see how it all turns out I guess.

That is true - I am compiling a special assessment right now because of non-payment of many units in one complex where we have 10 units in foreclsoure - talk about screwing up a budget - and then this is just going to make it harder on the people that have been struggling to make their payments - most of these people live here - The 10 foreclosures were investors.......meanwhile they are collecting rent on some of these units and not paying the association fees or mortgage - but their renters are getting the benefits (that they are paying the guy in foreclosure for) It is just a vicious cycle right now.

All I have to say is if you are investor in this market, and you can not afford, or unwilling, to buy and hold, then do the other owners a favor. Step out of the playing field. I just received an e-mail from a investor who bought only 1 year ago and worked out a short sale, scheduled to close in a week. He hasn't paid his assessments for half that time, has a hefty assessment due as well, and wanted to negotiate with the Association for $600, the cost of filing a lien and interest. Did I say only one year ago?

Are you aware that there are only approximately 20 short sales currently listed in areas 17 and 18 which includes most of 30-A? IMO spring season hasn't just "happened" it is happening!!

Just the tip of the iceberg as 30ashopper alluded to. The big shoe has yet to drop.

Just the tip of the iceberg as 30ashopper alluded to. The big shoe has yet to drop.

Try these on.

I'll agree, let's all sit back and watch... But read my lips....PENT UP DEMAND!

And please post all your really good deals....

Are you aware that there are only approximately 20 short sales currently listed in areas 17 and 18 which includes most of 30-A? IMO spring season hasn't just "happened" it is happening!!

Actually, there are more like 45 short sales in 17 and 18. If you are just searching the "sales type" it is inaccurate, not all agents listing short sales check the right box there. You should search the "agent notes" for the term "short sale". You will have 50 returns. Then to be truly accurate you need to click on each one and check the notes because some agents put in their notes "this is not a short sale".

Remember, only 3 things can happen in a short sale:
1. It sells before foreclosure with the lender granting the short sale.
2. It sells at the county courthouse steps at the foreclosure public auction.
3. It is relisted by the lender as an REO usually at or just below market value post foreclosure.

And that 45 number is just detached single family homes. Add in another 16 condos, 9 townhomes and a whopping 87 residential land lots and you have 157 short sales in areas 17 and 18....

I'd just like to add, having been in a few "seller" vs. "doomer" discussions, I'm not interested in provoking that kind of discussion here. If I were a realtor, I wouldn't be running around telling everybody to buy next year. As a buyer, I would be telling any other buyer to get into the market and do their research. There are good deals out there on homes, lots, and condos if you know what to look for. So far though the areas I'm specifically interested in aren't showing any good deals.

I'm just here throwing out the data I see, that's all. Hope nobody takes my posts personally in any way.
:sick:

What area are you looking in?

Buyers are wasting their time low balling an already low ball short sale.

I agree--they should take the hurricane season off and start back up in the Fall.

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I agree--they should take the hurricane season off and start back up in the Fall.

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Then they would not be called buyers...

What area are you looking in?

Mostly planned communities along 30-A, plus some nice areas like Grayton Beach and Blue Water. There are so many it's hard to list, there are the major ones and then all of these little tiny communities angled off 30-A that are interesting.

If there are deals out there I'd love to hear about them. I do see a few REOs that I'd consdier priced right for the current market, but maybe not for next years. Depends on how things go I guess.

Overall I'm pretty pumped, I first started looking at buying another house in 2005. The prices were so out there though I couldn't justify it. In general I think once this finishes up the whole area will benefit. People who purchase and rent will have better margins, rents should be lower for vacationers, and real estate types will profit from higher sales volume. We just have to be patient.

(1) A stock broker has considerably more asset classes to sell, so they have a better chance at being right...unlike a Realtor or an Insurance Salesman who have to push a single product line.

(2) No denying that there certainly are a considerable number weasels who carry Series 7 licenses

(3) Unlike Realtors or Insurance Salesmen you have legal recourse against a Series 7 holder who violates their fiduciary responsibilities.

(4) If you totally rely on any of these commissioned salesmen to be working purely in your financial interests--you're screwed.

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Thank God for Series 7 licenses - I'm sure we'll have lots of successful litigants recouping yesterday's losses on Wall Street because Shelly tells us that it is a breach of duty for a broker not to to foreshadow a sudden decline in the value of your assets.

if there's a pattern of trading, it's "showtime"!

Thank God for Series 7 licenses - I'm sure we'll have lots of successful litigants recouping yesterday's losses on Wall Street because Shelly tells us that it is a breach of duty for a broker not to to foreshadow a sudden decline in the value of your assets.

There might be some out there who might hitch their wagon to this gravy train:

Here's a bunch of lawyers going after Morgan Keegan on behalf of folks who were told 'it's a great time to buy our "no risk" bond funds"--unfortunately said funds were packed with Subprime Slime.

http://www.lawyersandsettlements.com/articles/10699/morgan-keegan-losses.html