Calling The Bottom

[ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amusement_park_attendance_figures[/ame] things are going full tilt here in Orlando with several factory outlet expansions underway.

people will continue to take vacations, and more will likely select drive-to destinations, rather than flying, so SoWal should continue to have it's share of visitors. The average visitor to SoWal is coming from a 500mi radius, so for math purposes, let's give them a 1000 mile, round trip to get to SoWal and back home. Gas prices last year were around $2.50 per gallon, and we will use your $4 per gallon for this year. The average SUV gets around 15 mpg, so 1000miles divided by 15mpg gives us a total fuel usage of 66 gallons for the round trip. Last summer, that would cost $165. This year, $266. I don't think $100 difference for a family of four will stop visitors. To help offset that $100, I have seen the price of rental units falling slightly as there is now more competition.

When you analyze the incremental cost, it seems palty. But there has to be a point where demand for gasoline is no longer inelastic. I have no idea whether that is the delta from $3.50 to $4.00 or $5.00 to $5.50 but somewhere lurks the proverbial straw...

I normally go down for a week about this time and a month in the winter. I am cutting this year's Spring trip to three days but admittedly, it has nothing to do with gasoline. When I look at various vacation listings, I don't see a rental rate reduction but you are closer to the market so I will take your word. I am in fact, waiting for the last minute to book.

I read somewhere that forty percent of the cost of food is attributable to fuel. We are a distribution economy after all. Items like vacations, computers and appliances represent discretionary purchases. As gasoline creeps up and food prices continue their upward march and the price of many items subject to mass distrubution increase there has to be a change in behavior.

I believe, in the short term, we will become less wasteful of crude like the Europeans. I suspect the internal combustion engine may be modified to combust something more easily obtainable, and if it takes 5 dollar gas to accelerate our overdue technological adjustment, in the words of the Dummy-in-Chief, "bring it on".

I have no idea what the occupancy numbers are like but I was talking to a guy at work today about gas prices, wages, etc. and he made an interesting observation. He lives in Navarre and drives to Miramar Beach and noted that his drive home used to take at least 45 minutes to an hour whereas now the trip has been cut by about 15 minutes due to fewer tourists puttering around HWY 98. Take from that what you will.

I also wonder how much longer service industry workers will be able to swing a daily trip from Defuniak, Freeport, Niceville, Crestview and Panama City into SOWAL without a substantial raise. Of course the raise would have to be recouped from the tourists who may be going 'on the cheap' if they elect to visit in the first place. That is a mighty slippery slope...

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I also wonder how much longer service industry workers will be able to swing a daily trip from Defuniak, Freeport, Niceville, Crestview and Panama City into SOWAL without a substantial raise. Of course the raise would have to be recouped from the tourists who may be going 'on the cheap' if they elect to visit in the first place. That is a mighty slippery slope...[/QUOTE]"

Unfortunately some businesses may not be able to push that rope, if people are going to eat more meals in their condo as a result of costs being passed on.. My point is that those increased labor costs may just as easily be "recouped" by businesses, in the form of lost profits, or worse.

no more doom and gloom, its time to put a lime in the gin and take in the view. SoWal will be a truly great place to ride out the supposedly coming 2nd great depression.

I don't think it is fewer tourists on 98 between Miramar Beach and Navarre that is making the traffic lighter. I think it is fewer overweight trucks that can't be on the cracked bridge in Destin. I've driven to Pensacola from SoWal a few times the last few months and it has been quite nice without the extra truck traffic. I did say a prayer before I crossed over the bridge next to Emerald Grand by Bos.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amusement_park_attendance_figures things are going full tilt here in Orlando with several factory outlet expansions underway.

No doubt:

Disney + Deflated Dollars = Foreigners


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I don't think it is fewer tourists on 98 between Miramar Beach and Navarre that is making the traffic lighter. I think it is fewer overweight trucks that can't be on the cracked bridge in Destin. I've driven to Pensacola from SoWal a few times the last few months and it has been quite nice without the extra truck traffic. I did say a prayer before I crossed over the bridge next to Emerald Grand by Bos.

Which bridge is cracked?

BTW, Goldman Sachs has forecasted $200/barrel oil which should translate into $6.00 - $7.00/gallon gasoline.

I believe, in the short term, we will become less wasteful of crude like the Europeans. I suspect the internal combustion engine may be modified to combust something more easily obtainable, and if it takes 5 dollar gas to accelerate our overdue technological adjustment, in the words of the Dummy-in-Chief, "bring it on".

Absolutely my thoughts exactly--I am all for getting gas to $5 a gallon--RIGHT NOW--it will speed up America's current non-commitment to the conservation of crude!

You can Google "Cracked Destin Bridge" and get lots of stories on Marler Bridge being cracked especially in archives of Northwest Florida Daily News.
For example on April 25, 2008 Robbyn Brooks stated
The Florida Department of Transportation says Destin?s ?structurally deficient? Marler Bridge should be repaired by next June.

Am I seeing things, or is the Walton County appraiser listing zero sales for April? I did a quick off the cuff itemization of total sales over the last three years from their sales lists - it doesn't look good.

March stats are now updated on the Walton County website and April stats are now available too.

Updated! The blue sections are estimated values based on the number of missing sales at the end of April. So for example, only 21% of March sales were listed in the database at the end of April. So it's reasonable to assume only 21% of April sales are listed in May. I took that back three months. The listing accuracy was:

1 month - 21% of sales represented
2 months - 71% of sales represented
3 months - 94% of sales represented
4 months - 99% of sales represented

I re-counted the sales numbers back to September.

WASHINGTON (AP) - A home-price index considered to be the most comprehensive reading of the U.S. market posted the sharpest quarterly decline in its 17-year history, and analysts say housing has yet to bottom out.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90QQMA00&show_article=1

So you will be needing to buy some farmland? You might want to try the better soils in lower AL and GA, but watch out for the drought and price of diesel fuel.

I have some Good acerage if you need it.With the cost of fresh vegies it makes sence to have a few acres with a pond on it. With Eric living next door you can have (Fish and Chips). That was bad, I know it.

seer

WASHINGTON (AP) - A home-price index considered to be the most comprehensive reading of the U.S. market posted the sharpest quarterly decline in its 17-year history, and analysts say housing has yet to bottom out.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90QQMA00&show_article=1

Don't tell anyone in our office this. We are slammed! It kind of reminds me of the bumble bee theory.

I was surprised to see a canal-front lot on Ricker St. in Daughettes sell for $95,000. That lot sold for $395,000 in 2005. It looks like we are approaching the bottom, unless the seller pays someone to take his/her property.

Don't tell anyone in our office this. We are slammed! It kind of reminds me of the bumble bee theory.

Hang in there, something tells me you will be more slammed in about two or three years

I was surprised to see a canal-front lot on Ricker St. in Daughettes sell for $95,000. That lot sold for $395,000 in 2005. It looks like we are approaching the bottom, unless the seller pays someone to take his/her property.

There is a little more to the story on this lot(one day transaction). I just put another canal front lot under contract. Can not disclose price yet but the asking is $169,000 and we are close.

Hang in there, something tells me you will be more slammed in about two or three years

Hard to tell. It sure feels good to get things moving again. Garner and I have had 6 closings already this month. We have 2 more left to close the month out. June is filling up and we already are working on July! Wow! If we will be more slammed in 2-3 years I will be ready! I think we may be more stable in 2-3 years which means we will probably be less slammed. Right now, folks are gobbling up the A plus properties!

Don't tell anyone in our office this. We are slammed! It kind of reminds me of the bumble bee theory.

What's the average price range of the sales? Are they in the $500,000 - $1.5M price range?


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What's the average price range of the sales? Are they in the $500,000 - $1.5M price range?


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Really across the board. Just really good deals. From $80,000 to $640,000 (solds).
Pending and contingents range from $169,000 to $899,000.

Don't tell anyone in our office this. We are slammed! It kind of reminds me of the bumble bee theory.

Being busy doesn't mean that the bottom has arrived or that the market in general is good. Sales volume continues to trend down in Walton county and prices continue to slide.

We are a long way from the bottom. Prices along 30A will continue to fall. Prices in the major developments have been falling for a couple of years and that trend will continue. Unfortunately, a lot of people have lost a lot of money in real cash terms and on paper after buying in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Prices off the beach in most of the big dollar developments have been moving down to the 500, 400 and even 300 dollar per square foot levels. The value of the actual brick and mortar has come down some, but it is the value of the land that has cratered. Land values will continue to slide and it will bring house and condo prices down too. Those lots in Watersound, Watercolor, Alys, Rosemary, etc that sold in 2001 for $150k or so and then for $700k or more at the peak will eventually move back down to the 2001 or earlier levels.

Five years plus before any upward movement begins in overall price levels after bottoming out in 2011. Prices won't move up until inventory levels come way, way down, most of the investors get weeded out of the market and the banks unload all of the foreclosures and short sales that will continue to hit the market.

Being busy doesn't mean that the bottom has arrived or that the market in general is good. Sales volume continues to trend down in Walton county and prices continue to slide.

We are a long way from the bottom. Prices along 30A will continue to fall. Prices in the major developments have been falling for a couple of years and that trend will continue. Unfortunately, a lot of people have lost a lot of money in real cash terms and on paper after buying in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Prices off the beach in most of the big dollar developments have been moving down to the 500, 400 and even 300 dollar per square foot levels. The value of the actual brick and mortar has come down some, but it is the value of the land that has cratered. Land values will continue to slide and it will bring house and condo prices down too. Those lots in Watersound, Watercolor, Alys, Rosemary, etc that sold in 2001 for $150k or so and then for $700k or more at the peak will eventually move back down to the 2001 or earlier levels.

Five years plus before any upward movement begins in overall price levels after bottoming out in 2011. Prices won't move up until inventory levels come way, way down, most of the investors get weeded out of the market and the banks unload all of the foreclosures and short sales that will continue to hit the market.

A am not sure what being busy right now really means at all other then I have many closings and contracts from buyers that are choosing to jump into the market. I think anything other then that would be speculation which got us all into this trouble. I am not going to speculate on an up or a down. I just think this is a really cool place to live and if I learn to concentrate on the positive aspects of the area my sales go up. Go figure.

Really across the board. Just really good deals. From $80,000 to $640,000 (solds).
Pending and contingents range from $169,000 to $899,000.

That sounds like a pretty fair spread. Most of the sales I've seen are in that area, with buyers offering on average 15% below asking. Some are getting good deals compared to estimated values (there are few comps really), and some are jumping at prices maybe 10% above what they could get if they did their due dilligence and haggled a bit. It also looks like inventory and time are helping to slowly push "reasonably priced" property down. But there's no major depreciation once it's reasonably priced, it seems more like normal market forces at work.

..and then there are those who list at 90K + what they paid in 2005.. and the property just sits. Ho hum.

I wish the month was over and Walton's site was up to date, I'm really interested in seeing some more April and some of the May sales!

This is a very interesting market. As everyone beats it up, some very smart investors are sliding in here grabbing up some really good deals. The reality is there is really not much inventory priced to sell. So if someone wants a great deal it is really slim pickings. Of course, the buyer gets to decide what a good deal is.