Real Estate Supply

I get inquiries all the time on my sowal property from people who say they just do not like the high rises or the traffic and other things associated with them. The overbuilding in many of these areas is bringing more rentals to Sowal, which does not seem crowded to me, even during the busiest periods of the year.

Yes. While I do feel for those who have agonized as SoWal marches toward being built out, it is good to remember that there is nothing else like it along Florida's coastline, when you consider height restrictions and -- face it -- abnormally high elevations that give all but first and second tier owners a huge storm surge protection. SoWal is rare and unique with qualities that will be even more appreciated in years to come. These market difficulties will likely take years to climb out of, but once things are in balance, watch out.

In the end, as the area matures the biggest long-term, ongoing problems are going to be parking and a lack of labor force. As has been noted by others here, the time to plan for these problems is now.

Have you seen the horror of busted balloons in front of condos? Shameful.

Have you seen the horror of busted balloons in front of condos? Shameful.

In the olden daze we'd worry about the sea turtles choking on the shards of spent balloons--as luck would have it, that's no longer a problem.


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What no more turtles?

Yes. While I do feel for those who have agonized as SoWal marches toward being built out, it is good to remember that there is nothing else like it along Florida's coastline.

Watch Dr. Strangelove. This picture is in the movie.

The condo market is ugly, but someone will own the Condos even if its the Banks and they will be rented. They wont cash flow but they will rent them buy the week for what they can get. This will Bring ALLOT of new people here for the great rental deals, this will be good for the commercial sector and a very small percentage will buy a condo for their personal use. Eventually the supply will draw down and prices will be stable. Just my opinion for what its worth.

During the last condo crash of the late 1980s there were many condos sitting vacant and deteriorating.

PCB will offer some great rental bargains which will hurt many owners there and even on 30A who hope to pay for some of their expenses by renting. There will be many vacancies.

Maybe tourist development should make this destination for all the homeless in the country.

This could be a charitable contribution to society by all the developers and real-estate agents that greatly benefited in the bye gone boom years.

During the last condo crash of the late 1980s there were many condos sitting vacant and deteriorating.

PCB will offer some great rental bargains which will hurt many owners there and even on 30A who hope to pay for some of their expenses by renting. There will be many vacancies.

Maybe tourist development should make this destination for all the homeless in the country.

This could be a charitable contribution to society by all the developers and real-estate agents that greatly benefited in the bye gone boom years.

My contention is that this will most likely NOT hurt Sowal owners due to the type of experience sowal renters desire.

In ten years I have never had a renter tell me they were choosing a high rise over us because of price. In fact, many of our inquiries are based on our location and many are 'running' to us from the Destin area.

If there are some too good to be true prices in PCB high rises, SOME will try it once, but inevitably they will come back to sowal.

Please check out the "sale lists" at
http://www.waltonpa.com/

According to this data there was only one closing in December 2006.
In December 2005 there were over 300 closings.

I assume the December 2006 data is not up to date-right?

In November 2005 there were over 400 sales.
In November 2006 there were 200 sales.

We are not making much progress absorbing the excess property inventory.

Please check out the "sale lists" at
http://www.waltonpa.com/

According to this data there was only one closing in December 2006.
In December 2005 there were over 300 closings.

I assume the December 2006 data is not up to date-right?

In November 2005 there were over 400 sales.
In November 2006 there were 200 sales.

We are not making much progress absorbing the excess property inventory.

The data is wrong. Walton County consistently puts a handful of sales up on the site right after month end. Then, they come back mid to late month and put the real data up on the site.

The data is wrong. Walton County consistently puts a handful of sales up on the site right after month end. Then, they come back mid to late month and put the real data up on the site.

Thank you for your help.

Do you think the November 2006 data is accurate which shows about half as many sales as November 2005?

Thank you for your help.

Do you think the November 2006 data is accurate which shows about half as many sales as November 2005?

Absolutely--

Please check out the "sale lists" at
http://www.waltonpa.com/

According to this data there was only one closing in December 2006.
In December 2005 there were over 300 closings.

I assume the December 2006 data is not up to date-right?

In November 2005 there were over 400 sales.
In November 2006 there were 200 sales.

We are not making much progress absorbing the excess property inventory.

The data is now up and there were less than 150 sales recorded by Walton County in December 2006.

Some were interesting--

A 2700 square foot house with a 500 square foot carriage house in Rosemary south of 30A sold for $1.786 million.

A 2200 square foot house on Park Row in Watercolor that sold for $2.0 million in 2004 resold in December for $2.1 million.

A condo at Compass Point in Watersound sold for $1.055 million after selling in Sept 2005 for $993k.

The Nov. #'s are in the 12/30 issue of the Sun...How do they compare?...Red

The Nov. #'s are in the 12/30 issue of the Sun...How do they compare?...Red

No the Real Trend report and the Walton County property appraisers site do not agree. The Real Trend report always seems to show more sales than the county site. However, both the RT report and the County website show similar trends in terms of % declines in unit sales.

Any of the real estate pros know why this difference occurs???

The data is now up and there were less than 150 sales recorded by Walton County in December 2006.

Some were interesting--

A 2700 square foot house with a 500 square foot carriage house in Rosemary south of 30A sold for $1.786 million.

A 2200 square foot house on Park Row in Watercolor that sold for $2.0 million in 2004 resold in December for $2.1 million.

A condo at Compass Point in Watersound sold for $1.055 million after selling in Sept 2005 for $993k.

Also, one lot in the Preserve went for $200k (last sale of this lot was at $475k ) and one went for $195k.

Also, one lot in the Preserve went for $200k (last sale of this lot was at $475k ) and one went for $195k.

Could build-out time influence price here??

Could build-out time influence price here??

Not sure, but my gut tells me no. I don't think there is a developer anywhere along 30A that is going to begin buying back lots that go beyond build out dates.

Could build-out time influence price here??

IMHO the association fees, taxes and build out time all affect the motivation of the seller. I would guess that all 3 could be a problem in Water Color.

IMHO the association fees, taxes and build out time all affect the motivation of the seller. I would guess that all 3 could be a problem in Water Color.

I believe he/she was asking about the sales in the Preserve.

Yes, all those carrying costs plus interest certainly factor into people dropping prices in order to sell. However, I don't believe that in Watercolor or Watersound that St. Joe will ever pull the trigger and start buying back lots (unless of course the market skyrockets again). It would be a PR nightmare and cost big bucks to buy the lots back. Then, they would be stuck with lots of inventory again in a market flooded with inventory. No, IMHO, next time a big chunk of lots bumps against the buildout deadline, St. Joe (and other developers for the same reasons) will give grace again. No developer is going to want to shell out the cash for a large number of lots and then be stuck with trying to sell them again.

St. Joe will ever pull the trigger and start buying back lots (unless of course the market skyrockets again). It would be a PR nightmare and cost big bucks to buy the lots back.

As I recall, ST JOE is now a "Place-Maker"....not a "Place-Taker."


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I believe he/she was asking about the sales in the
Preserve. Yes, all those carrying costs plus interest certainly factor into people dropping prices in order to sell. However, I don't believe that in Watercolor or Watersound that St. Joe will ever pull the trigger and start buying back lots (unless of course the market skyrockets again). It would be a PR nightmare and cost big bucks to buy the lots back. Then, they would be stuck with lots of inventory again in a market flooded with inventory. No, IMHO, next time a big chunk of lots bumps against the buildout deadline, St. Joe (and other developers for the same reasons) will give grace again. No developer is going to want to shell out the cash for a large number of lots and then be stuck with trying to sell them again.

I agree that developer build out time deadlines have lost their teeth for the time being, but it is still a little unnerving having that uncertainty hanging over your head.

The Preserve has comparatively low association dues but does have a build out time of sometime in 2009.

Years ago when we visited the Preserve I was amazed how far it is to the beach-but once you get there it is beautiful!

I heard that 4 lots sold toward the end of the year in the Preserve for around $200k but I have not seen verification of any closings.

The Preserve at Grayton Beach just had a homeowner's vote to further extend the buildout....it's my understanding that it passed and is now 2012.

And, yes, there were a couple of Preserve closings around $200k in December. However, the most recent that I know of was in January for $225k.

The Preserve at Grayton Beach just had a homeowner's vote to further extend the buildout....it's my understanding that it passed and is now 2012.

Please remind me again as to the purpose of a "buildout" as hawked to potential buyers by developers' salespeople? Anyone?



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