to those of you that are agents (I don't know which of you are...), it seems that the lot supply has tightened up a bit on 30-a...are you seeing this in your own businesses?...the number of lots available seems to have gone down by about 20%...what are you seeing?...red
Replies
343Beach Lover
By the way, you can actually block her posts, like I and I suspect many others have done but using the User CP and adding her to your ignore list.
Beach FanaticAuthor
You just can't help it, can you Shelly? 
I think its just inexperience and class envy...Red
I think its just inexperience and class envy...Red
Christini Zambini
Shelly has said that he/she is a native of the Panhandle and misses the "good old days" pre-development. He/she may be negative toward development in general, but I think his main motive is to antagonize posters. He's like a pesty little brother Yyou love him, but some times he drives you crazy). If you've been on Sowal more than a year, you wouldn't underestimate Shelly's success, intelligence, or humor. This is all just a little funn for Shelly.
Edited
Beach Lover
FFF, My family and I have been investing in South Walton real estate for over 30 years with great success. I tend to agree with your assesment of the South Walton real estate market but I suggest you just ignore Shelly. Shelly's only pupose is to promote the negatives regarding the real estate market anywhere, anytime, anyplace. I suggest you follow the motto I adopted a few months ago..."Life's a bowl of jelly when you just ignore Shelly." Doesn't really make much sense but neither does she... and it makes me laugh.
SHELLY?s early predictions of the coming real estate bubble burst were more accurate than most anyother poster.
SHELLY not only gives well researched information but writes in a flamboyant and witty style that makes sowal fun to read.
Anyone buying or selling anything, particularly real estate, would be wise to pay close attention to SHELLY?s posts.
Although I enjoy her posts I do not necessarily always agree with them.
It will be interesting if she can predict the future RE market and economy as well as she has the last few years.
_
Admin
Reminder to all - personal attacks are not allowed. Stick to attacking the issues.
Beach Comber
Shelly normally has facts, coupled with analysis. You may choose to agree or disagree with his analysis, however in either case his comments are insightful, and I rather enjoy reading them. Would someone care to chart Shelly's trend analysis with the Realtors or flippers!
Even the realtors with the MLS market data WILL NOT post the data any longer. Why? hmmmm One can ONLY speculate as to their reasons. WINK WINK.
Even the realtors with the MLS market data WILL NOT post the data any longer. Why? hmmmm One can ONLY speculate as to their reasons. WINK WINK.
Beach Comber
"A prophet is not without honor except in his(or her) own country and in his(or her) own house."
Beach Lover
If someone ALWAYS predicts the negative that someone will ALWAYS be right some of the time.
Beach Fanatic
SHELLY’s early predictions of the coming real estate bubble burst were more accurate than most anyother poster.
SHELLY not only gives well researched information but writes in a flamboyant and witty style that makes sowal fun to read.
Anyone buying or selling anything, particularly real estate, would be wise to pay close attention to SHELLY’s posts.
Although I enjoy her posts I do not necessarily always agree with them.
It will be interesting if she can predict the future RE market and economy as well as she has the last few years.
_
Shelly and a few other posters saw the current real estate slaughter coming in mid-2005. Well before any other posters were seeing the signs or willing to admit they saw the ominous signs of a massive downturn in the market. Since those early posts by Shelly and a couple of others that got scorched by the rest of the community, the market has in fact dropped in some places by over 50% from the high water mark. This is particularly true on lots and condos in some of the big developments like Rosemary, The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Watercolor and Watersound.
Say what you will about Shelly and these early predicters of the significant downturn in the market, but they called it right. The market shows no signs of coming back anytime soon and the only "facts" that the bulls post to support future growth tend to be comments regarding the beauty of the area, "they aren't making any more beaches", and other generic info. The real facts related to inventory, interest rate changes, the number of people ready, willing and ABLE to buy in this market, etc.continue to point toward softness in the market.
Edited
Beach Lover
The real estate market goes both ways, up and down. I can see what has happend to real estate values in South Walton and I agree, in some places selling prices are down as much as 50%. But, just as in the rapidly appreciating markets of 2003 and 2004, past performance is not necessary a predictor of future performance. The economy is still growing, interest rates are relatively low and may actually fall in 2007 so who's to say the local real estate market will not turn around this year. I think the people who point out the beauty of the area, the new airport and other unique qualities are simply trying to remember why, over the last 30+ years, real estate in this area has been, and I believe will continue to be, such a great investment.
Just for perspective, if you bought a gulf front lot at Paradise by the Sea 10 years ago you would have paid about $250,000. Today, you MIGHT be able to by the same lot for $2,250,000. I'll take that kind of appreciation any day! Even if you think back only 5 years ago to 2001, and I bought property here that year, things didn't look all that great after 9/11. But, look at the amazing appreciation that has occured in the past 5 years. Even with the current correction the value of the property I bought back then has easily doubled!
Perhaps Shelly and her followers are right, the market for South Walton real estate is terrible and will take many years to recover but I seriously doubt this forecast. In fact, I strongly suspect that if you buy property in 2007 that by 2012 and 2017 you will be absolutely delighted with your decision and wonder how anyone could have been so foolish as to warn you against doing so.
Just for perspective, if you bought a gulf front lot at Paradise by the Sea 10 years ago you would have paid about $250,000. Today, you MIGHT be able to by the same lot for $2,250,000. I'll take that kind of appreciation any day! Even if you think back only 5 years ago to 2001, and I bought property here that year, things didn't look all that great after 9/11. But, look at the amazing appreciation that has occured in the past 5 years. Even with the current correction the value of the property I bought back then has easily doubled!
Perhaps Shelly and her followers are right, the market for South Walton real estate is terrible and will take many years to recover but I seriously doubt this forecast. In fact, I strongly suspect that if you buy property in 2007 that by 2012 and 2017 you will be absolutely delighted with your decision and wonder how anyone could have been so foolish as to warn you against doing so.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
Shelly and a few other posters saw the current real estate slaughter coming in mid-2005. Well before any other posters were seeing the signs or willing to admit they saw the ominous signs of a massive downturn in the market. Since those early posts by Shelly and a couple of others that got scorched by the rest of the community, the market has in fact dropped in some places by over 50% from the high water mark. This is particularly true on lots and condos in some of the big developments like Rosemary, The Preserve, Cypress Dunes, Watercolor and Watersound.
Say what you will about Shelly and these early predicters of the significant downturn in the market, but they called it right. The market shows no signs of coming back anytime soon and the only "facts" that the bulls post to support future growth tend to be comments regarding the beauty of the area, "they aren't making any more beaches", and other generic info. The real facts related to inventory, interest rate changes, the number of people ready, willing and ABLE to buy in this market, etc.continue to point toward softness in the market.
If you predict a down market long enough, eventually you will be right. Media hype over katrina and gulf coast damaged has more to do witht his slump than anything thing else. The condo market actually slowed down after the 2004 hurricane season. Now I will make a prediction, I predict a down market in stocks as soon as we have another 9/11 or another crook gets caught cooking the books or the next big scandle in mutual funds cause no one is policing these folks. People who invest in RE for the short term better know their markets good. I bought nothing in 2004-06, but I would not hesistate to buy now! If I won the Florida lottery tommrow, I would put ever penny on property along 30-A, especially in the big developments with all the nice ammenties. Beach real estate always rebounds, and rebounds strong!
Beach Fanatic
Fisher, I own 9 pieces of beautiful real estate in Walton County, all of which are either beach or water front, and don't own a penny! I don't help banks or mortgage companies get rich, and only work with a select few of realtors. Doodle Harris developed Seacrest Beach, and has done a ton of good for Walton County. All you have to do is read Shelly's idiotic posts to realize she is either incompetent when it comes to real estate investing or is against beach development. Personally, I think Shelly is a "he" and probably lives in a trailer park and hugs tress for excitment and pleasure.
SoWal Insider
I'm going back to the snackbar for some Milk Duds...can I bring back anything for anyone?
.
Edited
SoWal Insider
Shelly this Board would not be the same without your insightfulness and humor even if it inspires some ire ever now and then.
Now will you bring me back some Raisinets?
Now will you bring me back some Raisinets?
Beach Fanatic
I'm going back to the snackbar for some Milk Duds...can I bring back anything for anyone?
Shelly,
You should no by now I would never eat that junk! I only shop at "For that health of it" in Blue Mountain! (Tasteful plug)
SoWal Insider
Shelly this Board would not be the same without your insightfulness and humor even if it inspires some ire ever now and then.
Now will you bring me back some Raisinets?
That will be $1.75
SoWal Insider
That will be $1.75
That's not what you told me before I posted. :roll:
Beach Comber
ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?
It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!
It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!
SoWal Insider
ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?
The possible increase in peanut prices will be off-set by softening Cocoa futures...so I predict Goobers will hold their price at $1.75 into next week.
.
SoWal Insider
ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?
It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!
I am sure someone from the Peanuts Gallery will chime in with the price of nuts at some point.
Meow
ok... now that I know the price, I would like some Goobers. Do you think the price will drop a bit if I wait until next week to buy?
It is freezing here in Houston and I am wishing I was there. Is it terribly cold this week? If so, stay warm if not, enjoy yourselves and be so glad!!!
Hey neighbor! You got frozen stuff there? I am getting ready to call my daddy and make sure he stays home today.
Re: RE
If you have it, enjoy it.
If you don't have it, buy it.
...have a nice day!
SoWal Insider
Question for all the realtors out there. I'm wondering how many of the current sellers fall into the following categories:
1) Must sell (either because they are purchasing something else or in real danger of foreclosure)
2) Want to sell because the market is no longer a good short-term or mid-term investment
3) Want to sell because they are tired of dealing with a second home or rental property
4) Are still "testing the waters" and looking to cash in on an investment of several years ago.
Where is all this supply coming from? Are there this many people in severe trouble? Are there still a lot of No. 4s out there, or far more No. 1s? I'm just curious as to why people who don't have to sell would even put their house on the market right now. I'd love to see what local realtors are hearing and seeing. Thanks.
SHELLY, would you bring me some SnoCaps while I wait for someone (besides yourself -- we know you are not a realtor ;-) ) to answer my question?
The reason I ask is because when the buyers do come back, it may be in a steady trickle, but it won't be a flood. If all of these people need to sell it will take a LONG time to get rid of the inventory. If there are people who don't need to sell and will be helped by, say, changes in the insurance and property tax laws, and then take their properties off the market, we will see more of a balance much more quickly. It would seem so, anyway.
Beach Fanatic
I think many people still think they can get too much for their home. Many of these people are coming to that realization and pulling off of the market. In detached single family homes from Destin throught Inlet Beach, the inventory has dropped for 5 straight months. The inventory in July of 2006 was 2,605. As of December that number had dropped to 2206. Although sales had dropped during the slow season, so had the inventory. Really showing that those people are beginning to pull off of the market. I believe that number will also drop this month. I will let you know as soon as the month comes to an end. The sooner these people do pull off of the market we will see more of a stabilization. Although, buyers are better off with the high inventory. People are much more willing to deal when 5 houses on their street are on the market.
SoWal Expert
SHELLY, would you bring me some SnoCaps while I wait for someone (besides yourself -- we know you are not a realtor ;-) ) to answer my question?TFT, guessing the percentage of each of your categories would be difficult. There are several other reasons why some people are selling. From talking with many sellers, including FSBO (for sale by owners), I hear them saying that they do not have to sell. I think they are the majority by far. (one example is the vacant lot next to one I have listed. Basically, the lots are no different regarding type of lot, density, tree coverage, views, access, etc, yet the ForSaleByOwner (FSBO) is priced almost three times the price of the one I have actively listed. That FSBO seller has called me several times to check my price, but has never changed his price. He says that he doesn't have to sell.)
The reason I ask is because when the buyers do come back, it may be in a steady trickle, but it won't be a flood. If all of these people need to sell it will take a LONG time to get rid of the inventory. If there are people who don't need to sell and will be helped by, say, changes in the insurance and property tax laws, and then take their properties off the market, we will see more of a balance much more quickly. It would seem so, anyway.
As for the "must sellers," the answer isn't so easy. Many of the must-sellers have more than one property listed, and when they sell one of the properties, they will likely pull the others off the market. This is what I hear from many of them. Some of these people may have between 2-5 properties currently available.
Then, there are other wishful, but over-priced, sellers who have pulled their listings off the market until it picks back up. So, when the market does begin to show a substantial increase in activity, look for these to be back on the market. Again, many of these are currently very overpriced based on the current market. They do not classify as have to sell and are wishful fishing.
I don't hear many sellers saying they fit into category number 2, though I am sure there are a few. In fact, I have been working with buyers who are buying for the opposite reason, though we are talking more "mid-term" rather than short term. (3-5 years) -- I know some people consider this long term, but I am more conservative.
There are a few who fall into your cat. 3, those who are tired of dealing with rental property, but those are very, very few.
Beach Comber
Go ahead and get me the Goobers...anybody want some?
Sue Shore, it is freezing this morning and I was pelted gently with some frozen mix earlier today while walking our dog. I would definitely recommend that your Dad stay indoors because it is just so bitter and they are expecting on and off precipitation all throughout the morning into the early afternoon. A few overpasses are closed and HISD schools are closed, but we are not nearly as hard-hit as areas up north of the city. Have an awesome day!
Sue Shore, it is freezing this morning and I was pelted gently with some frozen mix earlier today while walking our dog. I would definitely recommend that your Dad stay indoors because it is just so bitter and they are expecting on and off precipitation all throughout the morning into the early afternoon. A few overpasses are closed and HISD schools are closed, but we are not nearly as hard-hit as areas up north of the city. Have an awesome day!
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