Real Estate Supply

Shelly, I have to laugh...What exactly and I additcted too...It must be more of that ignorant witless tripe..I'm still waiting for you to define "Real Estate Land Grab"...did THOSE crooks reach in their bag of tricks create some add'l r/e that got "grabbed"...OOOH....or how Naples, with their obvious labor problems manages to keep the Supercuts open...Certainly, the "old rich folks" don't get their botox injections there...Maybe you've got a gripe with some of those crooked r/e agents...THEY must be the source of all this strife (you know they get a commission)...Gosh, and don't get me started on those devilish developers...please grace me w/your economic insight...Maybe we can get more "snowflakes melting in the hand", "Greenspan's an idiot", "used car and insurance salesman" condescension, or maybe you can help that doctor find the PERFECT job...WOW, YOU REALLY CAN DO IT ALL...How bout that CEO who can cut his pay package to maintain a dividend for a stock w/market cap in the billions...I actually went back and reviewed some of those hundreds of knuclehead posts and am not sure you can make intellectual change for a $20...

Shelly, I think you were refering to me when I talked about not being able to work at Sacred Heart due to housing cost. I will reinterview with them in the future, and they may offer a liberal housing incentive. They will have to do something...they are getting ready to add a big wing onto the medical center on Hwy 98. I for one have been looking into an area on the Atlantic coast south of Jacksonville where there is still lots of good undeveloped land :clap_1:

Good luck...stick to your guns! (And don't think of shoehorning your way into an overpriced place with one of those suicide loans--prices WILL come down. You'll see...patience will pay off.)

Shelly, I have to laugh...What exactly and I additcted too...It must be more of that ignorant witless tripe..I'm still waiting for you to define "Real Estate Land Grab"...did THOSE crooks reach in their bag of tricks create some add'l r/e that got "grabbed"...OOOH....or how Naples, with their obvious labor problems manages to keep the Supercuts open...Certainly, the "old rich folks" don't get their botox injections there...Maybe you've got a gripe with some of those crooked r/e agents...THEY must be the source of all this strife (you know they get a commission)...Gosh, and don't get me started on those devilish developers...please grace me w/your economic insight...Maybe we can get more "snowflakes melting in the hand", "Greenspan's an idiot", "used car and insurance salesman" condescension, or maybe you can help that doctor find the PERFECT job...WOW, YOU REALLY CAN DO IT ALL...How bout that CEO who can cut his pay package to maintain a dividend for a stock w/market cap in the billions...I actually went back and reviewed some of those hundreds of knuclehead posts and am not sure you can make intellectual change for a $20...

:shock:

You won't need to be patient for very long. Prices have been falling for a while now and the pace will increase as sellers with low basis in their property get more and more nervous about the depressed market. Those people will begin unloading at prices not seen for several years.

Good luck...stick to your guns! (And don't think of shoehorning your way into an overpriced place with one of those suicide loans--prices WILL come down. You'll see...patience will pay off.)

You won't need to be patient for very long. Prices have been falling for a while now and the pace will increase as sellers with low basis in their property get more and more nervous about the depressed market. Those people will begin unloading at prices not seen for several years.

Do you have some specific examples that we can look at? We are always looking for a bargain.

Ask a good realtor. They can point you in the right direction. Or, just look at some of the recent postings on this forum about condos and land for sale where people are getting desparate to sell. Make them and offer they CAN refuse and see what happens.

Do you have some specific examples that we can look at? We are always looking for a bargain.

Thanks Shelley and Joe for the info. We received the email as well!!

Thanks, everyone.

I officially got my real estate license. yeah! just in time to not make any money.

I officially got my real estate license. yeah! just in time to not make any money.

Hollibird,
Congrats!! :clap_1:

Surely things will start to change in time. There is only so much paradise. So many beautiful homes in the area. We have one we have not been able to sell--I love it, could not build it today for asking price. If I could move it to Nashville I would. But I guess the bank holding the 300% loan would not allow it.

Here's my take on the real estate market

- If you're living in a home, and are not leveraged to the teeth, you're going to be just fine

- If you've owned a vacation/rental property for several years with a manageable mortgage and can handle the increased taxes, insurance and other carry costs, you're going to be just fine

- If you bought an investment property in the last year at sky-high prices with an exotic mortgage (leveraged to the hilt), figured on double-digit appreciation, and believe you will make a profit after carrying costs by renting it out, you're going to be severely disappointed.

- If you bought into pre-construction condos that will be complete in 2006/2007 and expect to flip them for a bunch of money--you're going to get screwed.

Areas with the highest and fastest appreciation will fall the fastest and the furthest (Florida condos come to mind). If you're looking for a homestead, I see no problems getting into the market now. Investment property is a whole different ballgame; the days of double digit appreciation and "flipping for fun and profit" are pretty much history. If the stock market takes off (like it did today), real estate will fall even faster as investors turn their back on and move out of real estate (whose illiquidity is a drag on one's portfolio). If you want to own more RE than your primary residence and a second home, there are other areas in the real estate game which are better investment plays than gambling on pre-construction condo flips (commercial or self-storage REITs come to mind).

Personally speaking, not a single one of my "boomer" friends, family, or acquaintances have expressed any desire to shell out $500,000+ to live in a 930sf concrete box in the middle of an SUV traffic jam.

Shelly...congratulations... I think! Your post has turned out to be absolutely correct. It's good to see someone who's mature enough not to attempt "puffing" for their own benefit. You were right and I'm sure you will continue to be so. I also agree with you about the boomers...Can't see a boomer using most of his/her retirement money to buy, or finance, a 500k+ unit and then be comfortable trying to live on a Social Security check for less than $1500 a month; that kind of thinking just doesn't make sense.

Shelly...congratulations... I think! Your post has turned out to be absolutely correct.

The old saying goes: Even a broken clock is right 2 times a day....

That said, I still can't believe how many "in the know" people believed that the "flipping" for fun and profit could go on indefinitely...go figure

The old saying goes: Even a broken clock is right 2 times a day....

That said, I still can't believe how many "in the know" people believed that the "flipping" for fun and profit could go on indefinitely...go figure

Shelly...you are being very humble...in my readings of your posts, I find you to be accurate in your assessments of the current market and the future. Those flipping cycles come along every 15 to 20 years...usually last a couple of years and are then gone with the wind. "In the know" people don't always think and act appropriately... money does that, you know!

Since we're coming up on a new year, would you give us your assessment of the current market and a prediction on the next year(s)? I promise not to comment on it next year if you should stump your toe on this one!!

Shelly...congratulations... I think! Your post has turned out to be absolutely correct. It's good to see someone who's mature enough not to attempt "puffing" for their own benefit. You were right and I'm sure you will continue to be so. I also agree with you about the boomers...Can't see a boomer using most of his/her retirement money to buy, or finance, a 500k+ unit and then be comfortable trying to live on a Social Security check for less than $1500 a month; that kind of thinking just doesn't make sense.

This seems pretty obvious to me but if you are a boomer looking for a retirement area, you have to choose wisely, spend what you can afford, and know what type of lifestyle you desire.

If you have a primary residence you are selling and simply desire to roll the money into a home in another location, you may not spend any of your retirement money.

I would have a hard time believing that anyone who has been responsible enough to amass a substantial retirement account would then empty said retirement account to pay cash for a retirement home and then attempt to exist on a meager fixed income.

I'm sure there are many people who can afford to buy themselves whatever type of retirement home they choose. There are probably equally as many who cannot. Since developers overbuilt based on speculation and media hype about boomer waves, then they can face whatever consequences come their way. Hopefully it won't trickle down to harm the rest of us too much.

This seems pretty obvious to me but if you are a boomer looking for a retirement area, you have to choose wisely, spend what you can afford, and know what type of lifestyle you desire.

If you have a primary residence you are selling and simply desire to roll the money into a home in another location, you may not spend any of your retirement money.

I would have a hard time believing that anyone who has been responsible enough to amass a substantial retirement account would then empty said retirement account to pay cash for a retirement home and then attempt to exist on a meager fixed income.

I'm sure there are many people who can afford to buy themselves whatever type of retirement home they choose. There are probably equally as many who cannot. Since developers overbuilt based on speculation and media hype about boomer waves, then they can face whatever consequences come their way. Hopefully it won't trickle down to harm the rest of us too much.

spinDrAtl...I'm assuming "Atl" is Atlanta; down here you hear many realtors stating that the boomers will bail out the market and it's just around the corner. I think that was what Shelly was referring to and I agree with Shelly; I personally consider it to be wishful thinking by many realtors here.

If you are in Atlanta, are you experiencing the overbuilding and boomer hype up there?

I haven't agreed w/Shelly in the past and don't think she's right now

I haven't agreed w/Shelly in the past and don't think she's right now

redfisher...you must be one of those "in the know" folks she mentioned!

go to any major metropolitan area in the country, then return to sowal....
no need for further discussion,
everyone will eventually find their way.....

Since we're coming up on a new year, would you give us your assessment of the current market and a prediction on the next year(s)? I promise not to comment on it next year if you should stump your toe on this one!!

Many believe the Spring selling season will bring boomers flooding to the area ready to bid up the prices once again--I'm not one of them. NAR said that 2006 is the THIRD BEST YEAR ON RECORD for real estate...but still, a very large population of realtors/brokers are singing the blues; that tells me that many are not going to like what's coming down the pipe for 2007. If housing sales records were set in 2004-2006, when the prices were spiking, those trying to unload quickly may find they'll have to bring a check to closing (if they're lucky enough to close.)

I don't see anything on the horizon that would jumpstart the RE feeding frenzy anew. I think RE investments will continue to unwind and remain flat or decline for at least another year or two. (That's if there are no hurricanes.)

Many of the boomers who do want to retire in Florida might be tempted to head up north with the promise of living out their golden years with Eric Estrada as their neighbor.

OR

Maybe the boomers will want to scrap their beach-front dreams to enjoy the "Urban Lifestyle":
--------------------------------
MILLION DOLLAR CONDOS WITH A SOUP KITCHEN BELOW “Urban hipsters have shown a knack for dropping up to $1 million for condos in the heart of the District. But will they spend that much to live over a church that feeds the homeless?”

“The development company envisions 140 condominiums at 10th and G streets NW. As part of the deal, the developer will build a new sanctuary for the church, with eight floors of apartments above, along with balconies, a swimming pool and a fitness center.”

“When the new building opens, the church will occupy the first two floors and continue serving breakfast and dinner daily to several hundred homeless people.”

“One-bedroom apartments would sell for between $400,000 and $500,000, while two bedrooms with a den would go for about $1 million, said David DeSantis, PN Hoffman’s vice president of sales and marketing.”

“DeSantis said the company is well aware that some home buyers may blanch at the prospect of living above a homeless service center. But he said the developer expects to attract buyers who ‘are fully aware of the urban lifestyle’ and will ‘appreciate the building and the neighborhood for what it is.’”
----------------------------

Let me take a toot on what these developers are smoking!! These guys are still partying like it's 2005!


.

Many believe the Spring selling season will bring boomers flooding to the area ready to bid up the prices once again--I'm not one of them. NAR said that 2006 is the THIRD BEST YEAR ON RECORD for real estate...but still, a very large population of realtors/brokers are singing the blues; that tells me that many are not going to like what's coming down the pipe for 2007. If housing sales records were set in 2004-2006, when the prices were spiking, those trying to unload quickly may find they'll have to bring a check to closing (if they're lucky enough to close.)

I don't see anything on the horizon that would jumpstart the RE feeding frenzy anew. I think RE investments will continue to unwind and remain flat or decline for at least another year or two. (That's if there are no hurricanes.)

Many of the boomers who do want to retire in Florida will be drawn up north with the promise of living out their golden years with Eric Estrada as their neighbor.

.

I have been following these postings regarding the real estate market in South Walton for most of the year. (I am a native of the area and have family there.) Having been a homeowner in Southern California in the 70's, suburban Boston in the 80's, and Boston and Cape Cod in the 90's, I can tell you that Shelly's assessment of 2007 is probably closer to what the reality will be. If South Walton follows the norm in real estate corrections, (and that is what is happening in the beach area) it will more than likely be 2009 before you start to see any substantial turn around.

As to where "boomers" from the northeast are headed........We have been in New England for the last 22 years, watching the winter migration to Naples and Palm Beach. People who already had homes there continue to go there for the winter. "Boomers" from this area who are now looking for a warmer climate are migrating to North and South Carolina in droves.

Likewise, northerners who already have homes in the beach area of Walton County will continue to go there. I think that people from the north who are looking for a second home or a retirement home are more likely to have an attitude of "wait and see" when it comes to buying in the Florida Panhandle.

Back Jpreus. Missed that darling kitty face tar.
In regards to your post above, Northerners do not have a clue where Walton County is.

Back Jpreus. Missed that darling kitty face tar.
In regards to your post above, Northerners do not have a clue where Walton County is.

Unfortunately, some do.;-)

Many believe the Spring selling season will bring boomers flooding to the area ready to bid up the prices once again--I'm not one of them. NAR said that 2006 is the THIRD BEST YEAR ON RECORD for real estate...but still, a very large population of realtors/brokers are singing the blues; that tells me that many are not going to like what's coming down the pipe for 2007. If housing sales records were set in 2004-2006, when the prices were spiking, those trying to unload quickly may find they'll have to bring a check to closing (if they're lucky enough to close.)

I don't see anything on the horizon that would jumpstart the RE feeding frenzy anew. I think RE investments will continue to unwind and remain flat or decline for at least another year or two. (That's if there are no hurricanes.)

Many of the boomers who do want to retire in Florida might be tempted to head up north with the promise of living out their golden years with Eric Estrada as their neighbor.

OR

Maybe the boomers will want to scrap their beach-front dreams to enjoy the "Urban Lifestyle":
--------------------------------
MILLION DOLLAR CONDOS WITH A SOUP KITCHEN BELOW ?Urban hipsters have shown a knack for dropping up to $1 million for condos in the heart of the District. But will they spend that much to live over a church that feeds the homeless??

?The development company envisions 140 condominiums at 10th and G streets NW. As part of the deal, the developer will build a new sanctuary for the church, with eight floors of apartments above, along with balconies, a swimming pool and a fitness center.?

?When the new building opens, the church will occupy the first two floors and continue serving breakfast and dinner daily to several hundred homeless people.?

?One-bedroom apartments would sell for between $400,000 and $500,000, while two bedrooms with a den would go for about $1 million, said David DeSantis, PN Hoffman?s vice president of sales and marketing.?

?DeSantis said the company is well aware that some home buyers may blanch at the prospect of living above a homeless service center. But he said the developer expects to attract buyers who ?are fully aware of the urban lifestyle? and will ?appreciate the building and the neighborhood for what it is.??
----------------------------

Let me take a toot on what these developers are smoking!! These guys are still partying like it's 2005!


.

Shelly...thanks for your thoughts; your candor is appreciated. I've noticed that a lot of RE professionals here, probably thinking it's best to be optimistic, will not tell you the facts about the RE market or about their closings for 2006; you will probably be proven correct once again in 2007.

The same types of people whining about r/e are the very same that whined about stocks 5 yrs ago?...They were down, got out and never got back in...What was the message of the stock market again?...In every contraction, recession, depression, collapse...choose your adj., some people get crushed...It teaches the lesson of moderation and greed...Why is that such dramatic news?...If they made bad choices, its their problem to solve...If they have a case, go to court...But nobody forced them to the closing table and coerced them to sign 37 times...Of those who do the most whining, I'd be interested to see the holdings...You might find that they seem to know a lot about what they don't own...

Will it ever be back the way it was?...I don't have a clue...BTW, I love exotic mortgages...am getting ready to write another one...

I didn't agree w/"them" before and I don't agree now...

Shelly...thanks for your thoughts; your candor is appreciated. I've noticed that a lot of RE professionals here, probably thinking it's best to be optimistic, will not tell you the facts about the RE market or about their closings for 2006; you will probably be proven correct once again in 2007.

I'm curious to know which r/e agents on this website you believe have been the most dishonest...Red