State of SoWal Real Estate - Spring 2009

This just in on Florida Trend:

› Gov. Crist Calls Florida Real Estate a Bargain [SP Times]
A prediction: You'll be kicking yourself in two or three years if you don't buy at today's prices. "When is the last time you recall Florida real estate being a bargain?" Crist said.

What a tool!

Did Charlie Crist buy a Florida home yet? (Not counting the one his "wife" owns?)

Maybe Remax can get him to star in their lame commercial of kicking himself in the arse--problem is, he may knock a few of his teeth loose.


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Shelley do you live or own a home on 30'a? You're very negative toward real estate on 30-a. If you don't own what would it take to get you to buy?

Nope. That was yesterday. You missed it. Bummer for you.

Since the prices have continued to drop, I am sure that my day will arrive sooner or later.

March sales for single family homes from Destin through 30A was the highest since 2005. April is already on pace to be the same way.

That is interesting. Will you please define that area, "from Destin through 30A?" When I run the numbers for Destin and all of South Walton, the reports are strong, but not as you claim. Maybe you include only areas south of 30A or something very unique.

This just in on Florida Trend:

? Gov. Crist Calls Florida Real Estate a Bargain [SP Times]
A prediction: You'll be kicking yourself in two or three years if you don't buy at today's prices. "When is the last time you recall Florida real estate being a bargain?" Crist said.

Yes Charlie, it was about 6-8 years ago. Blow all you want, you can't get that bubble up again.

That is interesting. Will you please define that area, "from Destin through 30A?" When I run the numbers for Destin and all of South Walton, the reports are strong, but not as you claim. Maybe you include only areas south of 30A or something very unique.

Single family home sales for areas 14 (Destin),15 (South Walton West),16 (North SRB),17 (South SRB),18 (South Walton East).

March, 2005- 159 sales
March, 2006- 64 sales
March, 2007- 61 sales
March, 2008- 65 sales
March, 2009- 72 sales

Actual numbers are always appreciated over innuendo. Thanks Josh.

Single family home sales for areas 14 (Destin),15 (South Walton West),16 (North SRB),17 (South SRB),18 (South Walton East).

March, 2005- 159 sales
March, 2006- 64 sales
March, 2007- 61 sales
March, 2008- 65 sales
March, 2009- 72 sales

The March 2009 numbers don't look extraordinary at all. Seems like the usual spring uptick. March 2009 is within 10% of all prior years except 2005.

What happened to median and average prices compared to prior year? Also, has inventory changed very much compared to prior years? It seems that as soon as one house sells, another takes its place on the MLS. Until we see a serious reduction in inventory, seems that the downward trend in prices will continue.

Thanks for the info.

The March 2009 numbers don't look extraordinary at all. Seems like the usual spring uptick. March 2009 is within 10% of all prior years except 2005.

What happened to median and average prices compared to prior year? Also, has inventory changed very much compared to prior years? It seems that as soon as one house sells, another takes its place on the MLS. Until we see a serious reduction in inventory, seems that the downward trend in prices will continue.

Thanks for the info.

But those are are March closings, so it's not really the spring uptick period yet (maybe just the beginning of it). A lot of the spring deals close in May or June. So the anecdotal evidence is helpful too -- we'll just have to see how it goes.

You raise a good point about inventory entering the spring season. Anyone care to elaborate? Has it stabilized or even started to decline?

Inventory for the same areas.

March, 2005- 854
March, 2006- 2089
March, 2007- 2433
March, 2008- 2505
March, 2009- 2245

But those are are March closings, so it's not really the spring uptick period yet (maybe just the beginning of it). A lot of the spring deals close in May or June. So the anecdotal evidence is helpful too -- we'll just have to see how it goes.

You raise a good point about inventory entering the spring season. Anyone care to elaborate? Has it stabilized or even started to decline?

Actually, March historically is one of the best months for the spring bump, followed by June. Those two months compete for best month overall.

Inventory for the same areas.

March, 2005- 854
March, 2006- 2089
March, 2007- 2433
March, 2008- 2505
March, 2009- 2245

Lots and lots of inventory to sell. You guys are going to make a lot of money while this whole thing unwinds. We have a ways to go though, 33 months of inventory based on March sales, which is one of the best months.

Josh, why do you include area 16, which is north Santa Rosa Beach, yet you don't include Pt Washington?

Also, looking at the numbers you are posting, you seem to be looking solely at the quantity sold for March each year. Your original statement was more open, if you go back and read it. It sounded as though this was the best month since 2005.

There are many months since 2005 which have seen more quantity of closings AND higher total dollar volume.

March was indeed a great month for closings. I think it is more accurate if you can be specific in your details, including not only quantity of sales, but also including total dollar volume. "The best month yet" could mean that we saw three times the number of sales, but total volume could be down 50%, so any number alone doesn't tell us much.

Just my two cents.

SO IN SUMMARY:

realtors: blogidy blog blog, wowee short term yippee!

shelley: one man's shiete is another's shinola, you can't bs a bser, blogidy blog blog charlie tool.

seems like the more things change the more they stay the same. blogidy blog blog.

SO IN SUMMARY:

realtors: blogidy blog blog, wowee short term yippee!

shelley: one man's shiete is another's shinola, you can't bs a bser, blogidy blog blog charlie tool.

seems like the more things change the more they stay the same. blogidy blog blog.

I was just thinking the other day that we all have gotten pretty predictable. Maybe now is a great time to ... talk about something new.

Josh, why do you include area 16, which is north Santa Rosa Beach, yet you don't include Pt Washington?

Also, looking at the numbers you are posting, you seem to be looking solely at the quantity sold for March each year. Your original statement was more open, if you go back and read it. It sounded as though this was the best month since 2005.

There are many months since 2005 which have seen more quantity of closings AND higher total dollar volume.

March was indeed a great month for closings. I think it is more accurate if you can be specific in your details, including not only quantity of sales, but also including total dollar volume. "The best month yet" could mean that we saw three times the number of sales, but total volume could be down 50%, so any number alone doesn't tell us much.

Just my two cents.

Murray,
Post whatever information you want. I was just putting information out there. I've openly done several threads showing numbers and graphs on avg sales prices, inventory, sales volume, etc.. You seem to have plenty of time so break it down for them.

It looks as if the numbers are very close to last year. It looks like our office is well up over last year this time. For those of you that like numbers and not innuendo, we are up 100% in the first quarter of 2009. I do not ever really have the time to post all the exact numbers but noted agents including myself had been much busier. If I ever post that I am busy, it does not mean the market is exploding back and NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY! It simply means I am excited and sharing my take on things. It is plain to see we have a ways to go to get out of this mess but I often feel compelled with all the bad news in this world to spread a little love. I truly love this business. If anyone would ever like to go over anything in detail please feel free to call. Good to see some life back in this section!

Inventory for the same areas.

March, 2005- 854
March, 2006- 2089
March, 2007- 2433
March, 2008- 2505
March, 2009- 2245

Josh,

Thanks for the great information that you provide.

Here's my report >>>>click here<<<
Once on the page, click on the pdf for the report with graphs.

What a tool!

Did Charlie Crist buy a Florida home yet? (Not counting the one his "wife" owns?)

Maybe Remax can get him to star in their lame commercial of kicking himself in the arse--problem is, he may knock a few of his teeth loose.


.

you know, i've started to think that because i didn't get the hysteria of the housing boom the first time. it may be hard for me to understand what gets everybody all exicted. you like facts shelley, so do i. but i'm beginning to think that goofy catchphrases and the herd mentality work for alot of people, so while we may never get caught up in it. i guess all the silliness may be our last best hope! ha!

Here's my report >>>>click here<<<
Once on the page, click on the pdf for the report with graphs.

I can't seem to thanks tonight, so thanks , that was a great report.

Inventory for the same areas.

March, 2005- 854
March, 2006- 2089
March, 2007- 2433
March, 2008- 2505
March, 2009- 2245

Thanks for the info.

Looks like March was very typical compared to the previous couple of years. And, inventory continues to remain very high. Prices will likely continue to drop until supply and demand get back in sync and the huge number of shorts and foreclosures clear the market. The lower prices go, the busier you guys will likely be.

Given the current economic environment, the fact that units sold in March 2009 are consistent with 2008, 2007 and 2006 is somewhat surprising. Nice to see some people are still spending money!

But those are are March closings, so it's not really the spring uptick period yet (maybe just the beginning of it). A lot of the spring deals close in May or June. So the anecdotal evidence is helpful too -- we'll just have to see how it goes.

You raise a good point about inventory entering the spring season. Anyone care to elaborate? Has it stabilized or even started to decline?

Actually, March has always been one of the highest periods for closings. And, they stay relatively high (compared to winter and fall months) until July/August. Nothing special here other than its good to see people spending money.

Actually, March has always been one of the highest periods for closings. And, they stay relatively high (compared to winter and fall months) until July/August. Nothing special here other than its good to see people spending money.

That's interesting, thanks, I guess it differs from the pattern in most neighborhoods where I have lived, where homes hit the market in late Feb-March and closings happen in June, in order to accommodate the crowd that might be worried about changing schools.

Another question: How is the decreased availability of jumbo loans affecting what sells? Credit has been extraordinarily tight in that sector from what I have read, and rates have been quite high. So are the properties under $500K, say, selling at a brisker pace?

Also: Are we seeing the return of the (at least occasional) all-cash buyer?

Edit to say I found the answer on Murray's blog. Thanks Murray!

Is Financing a Problem? Not for some. Sales reports show that in the category of Combined Residential (Homes, Condos, Townhomes), 39% of the sales were CASH, while the category of Residential Land reports that 53% of the sales in South Walton were CASH transactions.

Seems like a sign of a healthier market.

Another question: How is the decreased availability of jumbo loans affecting what sells? Credit has been extraordinarily tight in that sector from what I have read, and rates have been quite high. So are the properties under $500K, say, selling at a brisker pace?

Also: Are we seeing the return of the (at least occasional) all-cash buyer?

About 6 months ago, it seemed everyone was cash. The past few months we have seen more loan action. To use a catch phrase, most of the people we deal with right now do not "run in herds." They are ready to buy if the price is right. They are not concerned with continued depreciation because they feel they are buying at below replacement cost. They like the property they are looking at and are looking at the property as a long term hold. If the values go lower they are not worried because within time it will rebound at least to a normal market. When, is not an issue. They love the area and have always wanted a beach home. They may rent the property but do not rely on these numbers to pay the mortgage. They are extremely educated on buying property and have great knowledge of finance. BTW, none (except one) that I know of purchased in 2003-2005. The one that did took his loss and today currently flips properties with me in this market. He has been able to do 3 turns in one year and we are currently working on two more.