June 2006 Real Estate Sales

What he said ... I too am accumulating cash and waiting patiently for the bottom, though I suspect that is still several years away.

It's going to take at least that long for an industry shake-out. First folks gotta realize that "the boom" is really over and isn't coming back (we're still not there yet). Next comes the criminal shakeout of fraud and collusion that went on behind the scenes (that's just starting to come to light). After that is the flood of owners' lawsuits due to shoddy workmanship and broken promises from developers. (I wouldn't rush out too quickly to buy these quickly assembled "bubble" houses/condos--I'd wait a good couple of years for the problems to show up).....

....but if there is a major hurricane, or the property insurance mess isn't fixed soon, or the economy experiences a recession, or worse, stagflation--then the entire timeline will be shifted further into the future.

....but if there is a major hurricane, or the property insurance mess isn't fixed soon, or the economy experiences a recession, or worse, stagflation--then the entire timeline will be shifted further into the future.

Shelly, I always enjoy reading your posts. My friends always accuse me of seeing the glass half empty ... I suspect that you see it bone dry.

I am curious why you think a dissaster (natural, economic, or other) would shift the timeline out? Seems to me this would speed things up.

(SOWAL folks, you're not the only ones experiencing price depreciation ... my suburban Baltimore/DC home has lost about $75K in value over the past 6 months :(, and the buying frenzy that was happening last year has come to an abrupt stop. All of us "bubble" cities are in this together).

Shelly, I always enjoy reading your posts. My friends always accuse me of seeing the glass half empty ... I suspect that you see it bone dry.

I am curious why you think a dissaster (natural, economic, or other) would shift the timeline out? Seems to me this would speed things up.

I can see your point.....

The shifting of the timeline OUT that I was referring to was the time when Florida Real Estate would be an attractive purchase again.

The insurance problems and hurricane damage would give pause to folks who are looking for a "real place to live" (not investors).

For investors, hurricane-damaged housing isn't as attractive as it once was due to the ever-increasing cost of reconstruction, increasing carry costs AND the fact that there is so little equity in many, many houses and condos, they wouldn't be able to get the "bargains" they would have gotten in the olden days--before folks started using their home as ATM machines and "liberating its equity."

Additionally, if developments and homes are tangled up in a bunch of legal who-ha over crappy craftsmanship and broken promises, folks would be reluctant to purchase for fear of liens or taking over someone's lemon-house.

......Regarding your first comment: as matter of fact--I do like my martinis " very dry"--shaken...not stirred :cool:

Monty, you are wrong about the SoWal market being higher than other resort areas like CA and HA. The home we have at Grayton would cost us at least four times what the conservative value of it is in today's market. And the beach wouldn't be nearly as nice or rental demand what it is at SoWal. And I can tell you from firsthand experience in HA, you won't touch a well located resort condo for less than $1.25M...and that's a one-bedroom/one bath, guy. SoWal may be comparatively priced with communities such as Hilton Head and some in South Florida or the Naples/Tampa areas. But it is still a bargain when compared to anything on the West Coast or in HA.

SoWal may be comparatively priced with communities such as Hilton Head and some in South Florida or the Naples/Tampa areas. But it is still a bargain when compared to anything on the West Coast or in HA.

But after you figure in the cost of gas to commute....it's pretty much a wash. 😀

I disagree Donna. I was in Malibu recently and looked at a house on the beach with an acre lot, a pool and a tennis court for 6.5m. Show me a property like that in Sowal, it doesn't exist. Houses on postage stamp lots for 10 million here, or a 50 year old shack with 50 feet on the beach for 4 million? There is quite a bit of beachfront in the same range as Sowal in Cali. Search the MLS, there are much better properties in So Cal in the same price range as the beachfront here. The lower end market is a little higher in price, but there are actually people that live there to support the prices. The 1 bedroom condo you mention in Cali has a 2 bedroom next to it for 1.4m. Have you looked at other threads about Dunes of Seagrove for 1.3m asking or Adagio for 2.5m asking? Houses in Sowal that were 1 million in 2003 have asking prices of almost 4 million, it's ridiculous. If you don't agree, just look back at the sales figures. No easy bank money anymore, no ridiculous sales.

I disagree Donna. I was in Malibu recently and looked at a house on the beach with an acre lot, a pool and a tennis court for 6.5m. Show me a property like that in Sowal, it doesn't exist. Houses on postage stamp lots for 10 million here, or a 50 year old shack with 50 feet on the beach for 4 million? There is quite a bit of beachfront in the same range as Sowal in Cali. Search the MLS, there are much better properties in So Cal in the same price range as the beachfront here. The lower end market is a little higher in price, but there are actually people that live there to support the prices. The 1 bedroom condo you mention in Cali has a 2 bedroom next to it for 1.4m. Have you looked at other threads about Dunes of Seagrove for 1.3m asking or Adagio for 2.5m asking? Houses in Sowal that were 1 million in 2003 have asking prices of almost 4 million, it's ridiculous. If you don't agree, just look back at the sales figures. No easy bank money anymore, no ridiculous sales.

Did the house in Malibu include a wetsuit so you can "enjoy" the full beach experience?

Did the house in Malibu include a wetsuit so you can "enjoy" the full beach experience?

I wasn't praising the beaches or water quality there, only pointing out the prices are comparable. I like 30-a beaches except for the "restored" areas where the dunes meet the ocean.