There is no denying that real estate in South Walton (and just about everywhere else) has taken a hit these past 15 months or so.
There's doom and gloom all over this board.
There's also optimism on this board.
Let's have a little contest without all the clutter of commentary. If you must make a comment, please limit it to a sentence or two and ONLY when associated with your only vote.
In other words just make your prediction to the following question...
When will the "trough" or bottom of the real estate market occur?
PLEASE, your answer should be only February, 2006 or similar.
You may cheat anyway you know how!! I'll take my hint from the graph on the NPR thread and post first (just please click on Reply, not Quote to keep things clean).
Please come outside and play!
Replies
122
Beach FanaticAuthor
Feb, 2007
Edited
Beach Lover
February, 2007, but a long slow climb back to February 2005 levels, maybe 3-5 years.
Beach Lover
March, 2008
Beach Fanatic
November 2007.
SoWal Expert
Which bottom? The first, or second?
SoWal Insider
When all "optimism" is noticeably absent from this board.
Edited
Beach FanaticAuthor
Which bottom? The first, or second?SJ, Just play along degummit! Heck, you can have multiple answers...one for your first trough and one for your second trough, etc.!!! But you'll owe us which will be the worse and by how much!!!! Same for anybody else who feels the same.
When all "optimism" is noticeably absent from this board.Does that mean "never" if you're still around? ;-)
SoWal Expert
Beware of the people who make predictions.
Beach FanaticAuthor
Beware of the people who make predictions.WOWO (whatever... oh wise one)!
SoWal Insider
WOWO (whatever... oh wise one)!
St JOE just finished their 3rd QTR conference call...they had some predictions ;-)
Edited
Beach Comber
Jan 2009
Beach Fanatic
uhmmm......................
Let me get my crystal ball.............
Let me get my crystal ball.............
Beach Fanatic
Tough one... We will be 6 months to a year past it before we know it was the real bottom.
Beach Fanatic
When all "optimism" is noticeably absent from this board.
Beach Lover
March 2009
SoWal Insider
The question was: "When will the trough or bottom of the real estate market occur?"
Just like during the tech bubble, optimism caused folks to keep buying as the prices began to tumble. Only when all optimism was crushed did the system get a chance to "flush out the junk" and prices stabilize.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
July 2008
Those that can do.......those that can't sit on the sideline, throw rocks, and watch the opportunities float by.
Those that can do.......those that can't sit on the sideline, throw rocks, and watch the opportunities float by.
Beach Lover
Winter 07/08 however "bottom" implies values will start rising again. I think it will be flat or very modest appreciation for several year until all the inventory clears out.
Someone made the point that as Boomers retire that will continue to drive growth. Based on what I have read & seen, the growth will be there in some fashion, but not a bonanza because:
1) "half backs" are retiring in AL, GA, SC, NC mountain areas because of taxes and insurance, in greater numbers.
2) Boomers have to sell their existing city home to finance retirment place. We all know what's going on there, netting less than they thought.
3) They are looking for low cost of living places. As stocks wane (it's coming), pension troubles, etc, many are looking at less money to retire on than planned, thus a reduction in expenses.
4) Many are deciding not to retire at all, but to scale down where they live now.
I see all this every day from financial planners I work with that consult with pre-retirment boomers. There is alot of fear out there, causing most to scale back plans.
I think SoWal will always be a good place to buy/live however growth will return to a normal pre 2002-05 level IMO. The rich will still buy $3M homes in Alys Beach, etc, however most of the purchases over the last 3-5 years have been upper middle class folks "investing" . That's going to dry up significantly if due to nothing more than sentiment.
Someone made the point that as Boomers retire that will continue to drive growth. Based on what I have read & seen, the growth will be there in some fashion, but not a bonanza because:
1) "half backs" are retiring in AL, GA, SC, NC mountain areas because of taxes and insurance, in greater numbers.
2) Boomers have to sell their existing city home to finance retirment place. We all know what's going on there, netting less than they thought.
3) They are looking for low cost of living places. As stocks wane (it's coming), pension troubles, etc, many are looking at less money to retire on than planned, thus a reduction in expenses.
4) Many are deciding not to retire at all, but to scale down where they live now.
I see all this every day from financial planners I work with that consult with pre-retirment boomers. There is alot of fear out there, causing most to scale back plans.
I think SoWal will always be a good place to buy/live however growth will return to a normal pre 2002-05 level IMO. The rich will still buy $3M homes in Alys Beach, etc, however most of the purchases over the last 3-5 years have been upper middle class folks "investing" . That's going to dry up significantly if due to nothing more than sentiment.
Beach Fanatic
The question was: "When will the trough or bottom of the real estate market occur?"
Just like during the tech bubble, optimism caused folks to keep buying as the prices began to tumble. Only when all optimism was crushed did the system get a chance to "flush out the junk" and prices stablize.
This optimism you speak of... Can it be faked? If so how will we ever know?
SoWal Insider
This optimism you speak of... Can it be faked? If so how will we ever know?
Yes it can be faked...you can tell its faked if the developer's/realtor's lips are moving.
Edited
Beach Fanatic
July 2008
Those that can do.......those that can't sit on the sideline, throw rocks, and watch the opportunities float by.
:clap_1:
Beach FanaticAuthor
Yes it can be faked...you can tell its faked if the developer's/realtor's lips are moving.OK you two, just follow my simple request, please. What did you say??.... Uh..no, I don't own the thread.
BUT we've read all this stuff before...that's why I had a simple request for you not to post COMMENTARY unless you vote. Oh, and in the spirit of the upcoming elections, one vote per person, please.
If you guys want to jump on Shelly (figuratively speaking), then start a thread "Let's Bash Shelly" thread. And Shelly, quit taunting the agents!!!
THANK YOU!!;-)
You too Gypsea and Goofer!!
Beach Fanatic
Early 2010--after all the lots in major developments with buildout deadlines that were purchased on pure speculation get resold at very low prices
Meow
BMBV....welcome to the world of the SoWal taunt and tangent!!!
Beach Fanatic
OK, OK, OK ~ I'm going with Aug 2008.
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