Stick Your Neck Out and Predict

Well Rap, there was about 15 months were the market went flat, then begain to climb back up until Opal hit in 1995. Again, the market went flat for about 12 months, then began to climb. There was another small hurricane in 1998, that caused the market to go flat for about 8-12 months, and as usual the market began to grow. In my opinion, what really fueled the rapid increase prior to Katrina was low interest rates, reduction in capital gains tax to 15% and 1031's being discovered by more buyers/agents and the stock market collasp after 9/11. Personally, I still would rather have a piece of sand in my pocket, then own a piece of worthless stock any day.

Your picture is a cockpit of a Piper what?

Your picture is a cockpit of a Piper what?

click on his profile and you will see a picture of it. Piper Archer III.

Tomorrow.

IMO (and the author's), Here's an easy article with graphs that outlines why this market will take at least a couple of "tomorrows."

<que the band>

The buyers will come tomorrow, bet my ARM (and leg) they're here tomorrow--sure as hell;

Just thinkin' a-bout tomorrow, we'll forget our sorrow and our condo, we will sell;

Whether I'm stuck with a beachhouse or pre-con or dirt lot, I'll just mark up the price--hey! the view's nice--and say....

Tomorrow, tomorrow, the buyers are coming--or so says my real-tor Renee'!

Tomorrow, tomorrow I can't wait--til tomorrow--the ARM reset, and I just-can't-pay.

<FADE TO BLACK---MAKE THAT RED>


.

Your picture is a cockpit of a Piper what?

The market will not have bottomed here until people like BabyBlue figure it is better to own a piece of "Worthless stock" instead of "a piece of sand"... apparently the mass preference for asset classes other than real estate has not yet occurred...

BabyBlue mentions the capital gains tax rate being slashed to 15%.... good luck with that under Nancy Pelosi's new congress.....

YIKES - WATCH OUT FOR FALLING PRICES

p.s. Is there any solution to mortgage rate resets?? We have several friends in Atlanta who bought in in 2004 and 2005 and are trying to figure out there options in lieu of having their payments double. They're also grumbling now about their taxes and insurance -

man is it cheap to rent down there though.

The only solution to mortgage rate resets is to get out of the bad loan. You don't mention what their rate is or payment or term, but depending on their longer term goals (keep property forever, keep 5 years while renting out with goal to sell when market comes back, etc.), they might opt for some type of fixed term in the interest of stability.

The market will not have bottomed here until people like BabyBlue figure it is better to own a piece of "Worthless stock" instead of "a piece of sand"... apparently the mass preference for asset classes other than real estate has not yet occurred...

BabyBlue mentions the capital gains tax rate being slashed to 15%.... good luck with that under Nancy Pelosi's new congress.....

YIKES - WATCH OUT FOR FALLING PRICES

p.s. Is there any solution to mortgage rate resets?? We have several friends in Atlanta who bought in in 2004 and 2005 and are trying to figure out there options in lieu of having their payments double. They're also grumbling now about their taxes and insurance -

man is it cheap to rent down there though.

Some property is a great investment just as some stock is a great investment. If you could buy stock at a 5 to 1 leverage rate i suppose there would be a bubble there as well. I think there are buys along the coast now (not asking prices) that make sense fundamentally. Thank you for renting here.

The market will not have bottomed here until people like BabyBlue figure it is better to own a piece of "Worthless stock" instead of "a piece of sand"... apparently the mass preference for asset classes other than real estate has not yet occurred...

BabyBlue mentions the capital gains tax rate being slashed to 15%.... good luck with that under Nancy Pelosi's new congress.....

YIKES - WATCH OUT FOR FALLING PRICES

p.s. Is there any solution to mortgage rate resets?? We have several friends in Atlanta who bought in in 2004 and 2005 and are trying to figure out there options in lieu of having their payments double. They're also grumbling now about their taxes and insurance -

man is it cheap to rent down there though.

Don't be crabby be happy. I think you have me confused. Look at my qoute. I wanted to know what type of airplane the picture showed.

IMO (and the author's), Here's an easy article with graphs that outlines why this market will take at least a couple of "tomorrows."

<que the band>

The buyers will come tomorrow, bet my ARM (and leg) they're here tomorrow--sure as hell;

Just thinkin' a-bout tomorrow, we'll forget our sorrow and our condo, we will sell;

Whether I'm stuck with a beachhouse or pre-con or dirt lot, I'll just mark up the price--hey! the view's nice--and say....

Tomorrow, tomorrow, the buyers are coming--or so says my real-tor Renee'!

Tomorrow, tomorrow I can't wait--til tomorrow--the ARM reset, and I just-can't-pay.

<FADE TO BLACK---MAKE THAT RED>
.

Easy article? I did not get the point he was trying to make. He just uses some useless graphs of housing starts from the 60's (which IMO shouldn't equate into his analysis) analyzes home equity withdrawals (which of course at record low rates would be higher) put up a graph of homes for sale vs. bought.
Then he takes these graphs (which have simple statements) and makes an even simpler statement that based on supply and demand balances, the housing market still has yet to fall.
Maybe you can explain to me in plain language how the author of this thesis is coming to his conclusion because I am not seeing it.

BTW- dig the tune..........BOOM CHICK A BOOM

Until the huge inventories of ?real estate for sale? starts getting gobbled up we have not seen the bottom.

Early 2010--after all the lots in major developments with buildout deadlines that were purchased on pure speculation get resold at very low prices

Gotta change my prediction. Bottom out in 2012 and remain basically flat for 5-10 years. Unless of course, all the money we are printing in the US results in hyperinflation.

Spring 2010 or when you can look back and say "yep, that was the bottom", or when the media lets up and declares the bottom is here, which ever occurs first.

Crystal ball is broken. But I think it may be over when we get that Walmart on 98. Personally, my sales picked up when we got rid of the TV.

Wow, that was quite a blast from the past thread!

Crystal ball is broken. But I think it may be over when we get that Walmart on 98. Personally, my sales picked up when we got rid of the TV.

I think you might be onto something with the opening-of-a-store idea but I think it needs to be a Costco instead of a Walmart. If anyone hears that one's coming to town let me know and I'll get my green eyeshade out to start running some numbers again.

Way cool thread to see the optimism nearly three years back. Gotta wonder how many of those hoping for an early uptick even own the property they had back then.

I'll wait for Shelly to return from across the pond with insight from the other side into what's gonna happen over here.

Here is my take: COMPLETELY unscientific and ACUTELY emotionally driven as we live here full time and this is home for us....

I absolutely love the natural beauty of this area and think we live in a gorgeous place / setting and that we need to continue cherishing its unique features.

My crystal ball is no more lucid than anyone's - so although we bought at the peak of the market and we owe more to the bank than our place is worth - this is NOT going to deter me from enjoying my life here. I would be happy with small, incremental, sustainable growth - I doubt we will ever see the crazy frenzy that allowed people to speculate indiscriminately...

If I did have to predict something it would be this: When the market makes a slow comeback - (6 months? 1 year? 2-5 years, 10+???? no-one knows), I do believe there will be a discernible move towards higer quality construction and design. THere will be an inherent demand to protect one's investment and following the economy's downturn and the unreliable stock market, people with the means to purchase a vacation place will seek out the better quality.

Here is my take: COMPLETELY unscientific and ACUTELY emotionally driven as we live here full time and this is home for us....

I absolutely love the natural beauty of this area and think we live in a gorgeous place / setting and that we need to continue cherishing its unique features.

My crystal ball is no more lucid than anyone's - so although we bought at the peak of the market and we owe more to the bank than our place is worth - this is NOT going to deter me from enjoying my life here. I would be happy with small, incremental, sustainable growth - I doubt we will ever see the crazy frenzy that allowed people to speculate indiscriminately...

If I did have to predict something it would be this: When the market makes a slow comeback - (6 months? 1 year? 2-5 years, 10+???? no-one knows), I do believe there will be a discernible move towards higer quality construction and design. THere will be an inherent demand to protect one's investment and following the economy's downturn and the unreliable stock market, people with the means to purchase a vacation place will seek out the better quality.

I heard things are going well in your neck of the woods

I heard things are going well in your neck of the woods

The owners' miasma who have the muster to live up to their obligations perhaps has peaked.
Buyers are poised to advantage themselves with sub-replacement offerings and this portends
a rapid rebound of a price set of about one quarter toward peak.
Sellers who can postpone a sell may be better served waiting for the rebound correction.

This is one humble observer's comment.

I say 10-15 years before all the garbage is cleaned up. Meaning bust subdivisions, meaning south of 30-A and south of 10. All in between. Just to much out there.

I heard things are going well in your neck of the woods

Si

I no longer understand the question.

I no longer understand the question.

You mean..."Is now a great time to buy?"

.