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Stick Your Neck Out and Predict

BlueMtnBeachVagrant avatar
Beach Fanatic
21,031 views
There is no denying that real estate in South Walton (and just about everywhere else) has taken a hit these past 15 months or so.

There's doom and gloom all over this board.
There's also optimism on this board.

Let's have a little contest without all the clutter of commentary. If you must make a comment, please limit it to a sentence or two and ONLY when associated with your only vote.

In other words just make your prediction to the following question...

When will the "trough" or bottom of the real estate market occur?

PLEASE, your answer should be only February, 2006 or similar.

You may cheat anyway you know how!! I'll take my hint from the graph on the NPR thread and post first (just please click on Reply, not Quote to keep things clean).

Please come outside and play!

Replies

122
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#77
You will find the biggest tax breaks have been for those of us who choose to invest in the real estate market, something anyone with a few dollars can still do, even along 30-A.

...or with 100% financing through a liar's loan you don't even need a few dollars. :cool:


.
iqueequeg avatar
Beach Lover
#78
I am no political fan of anyone, but to tell the whole truth -- the press pushers had a field day with the first Pres Bush quoting, "no new taxes," was said after he had already pushed through taxes.

Actually, it was from Bush Sr.'s acceptance speech to the Republican convention in '88 (before he became president). From Wikipedia, but independently confirmable from other sources (as well as my memory):

""Read my lips: no new taxes" is a now-famous phrase spoken by former American president and candidate George H. W. Bush at the 1988 Republican National Convention in his acceptance speech on August 18."

But Bush Sr. did the right thing by raising taxes, and doing so contributed to taming the deficit, which was continued by Bill Clinton. Raising taxes cost him his re-election bid, though (along with Ross Perot).

Didn't like him all that much at the time, but I'd love to have Bush Sr. back now.
seacliffes avatar
Beach Lover
#79
Clinton likes to take credit for the budget surplus of the late 90s, but in doing so he conveniently leaves out the fact that the Congress at that time was Republican. All they did was scale back our massive welfare system much to his chagrin although he finally signed the legislation and then took credit for it....
goofer avatar
Beach Fanatic
#80
The President proposes......The Congress disposes.
Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#81
Of course you have friends. You didn't see me post your Halloween photos on SoWal, did you?


Could not find them???? Are they still there?
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#82
Could not find them???? Are they still there?
As I said, you didn't see them. ;-)

pm me your email address and I will forward them to you.
flyforfun avatar
Beach Fanatic
#83
...or with 100% financing through a liar's loan you don't even need a few dollars. :cool:


.

Shelly, that may have been the case a couple of years ago, but as Bobby J will tell you, now they are requiring 30% down for those liar's loans. Do you think they got smart or what?:roll:
Mango avatar
SoWal Insider
#84
Shelly, that may have been the case a couple of years ago, but as Bobby J will tell you, now they are requiring 30% down for those liar's loans. Do you think they got smart or what?:roll:

Uhm, how did your wife let you post nekkid without an avatar? :funn:
I am not going to Amore's with you anymore. :lol:
goofer avatar
Beach Fanatic
#85
Uhm, how did your wife let you post nekkid without an avatar? :funn:
I am not going to Amore's with you anymore. :lol:

As long as flyforfun doesn't use any of my former avatars.
Mango avatar
SoWal Insider
#86
As long as flyforfun doesn't use any of my former avatars.

:lolabove: You gave posting nekkid new meaning. :floor:
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#87
Shelly, that may have been the case a couple of years ago, but as Bobby J will tell you, now they are requiring 30% down for those liar's loans. Do you think they got smart or what?:roll:

.....Yeah....Smarter than an empty box of rocks.

Exhibit #1:

Mighty Casey


.

Edited

ecopal avatar
Beach Fanatic
#88
Eco, the 1991 real estate problem's were directly the result of the demo's wanting to teach Bush Sr. a lesson on the "no new taxes" theme. They basically re-wrote the tax code with regards to real estate depreciation schedule... .
You are correct regarding the 1997 tax relief act, the demo's along with the repo's did reduce capital gains tax to 30%, however it was not until the repo controlled congress took over was it reduced to 15%.

...

In President Reagan?s second term he correctly realized that federal deficits were growing too large and he had to do some fine tuning to the tax code. This was a responsible action by President Reagan but it resulted in a change in real estate depreciation rates and the resultant real estate condo crash in the mid to late 1980?s. This action was not initiated by the Democrats as you suggest.

You are also incorrect that the 1997 the Capital Gains tax cut signed by President Clinton only reduced Capital gains tax to 30%. This 1997 act included a reduction in capital gains tax to 20%, not 30% as you indicate. This act also exempted profits up to $500k for the sale of your home.

The 1997 tax cut signed by President Clinton also targeted a greater cross section of Americans that the 2003 Republican tax cut.

http://www.filetax.com/97taxact.html

The 2003 Republican tax cut was crafted primarily for the most affluent.
The below article regarding the Republican 2003 tax cut accurately predicted the resultant over speculation and the negative consequences which we are experiencing today.


The great bait and switch
Commentary: GOP pulls a fast one with capital-gains tax cut
By Chris Pummer, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:42 AM ET May 22, 2003
excerpts
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -
?... the Republican-controlled House pulled an astounding bait-and-switch on the American public..... Average Americans may pay dearly for the party's legislative slight of hand.

Forget that there are no unbiased studies to prove capital-gains tax cuts stimulate the economy. Forget also that two of the largest such cuts in history contributed to the rampant speculation that preceded the 1929 and 2000 stock market crashes...

..said David Levine, an economics professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. "The main effect of a capital-gains tax cut is to increase federal budget deficits in the future and make those already prosperous more prosperous.".........

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...DB36-79CD-4270-B0C9-4E07332796D4}&siteid=mktw
SHELLY avatar
SoWal Insider
#89
Well, the guessing game is over....while thumbing through Friday's Wall Street Journal, I came across this full-page ad on C5:

It's A Great Time to Buy or Sell A Home.

So I guess there's nothing more to see here folks, move along.



.

Edited

BlueMtnBeachVagrant avatar
Beach FanaticAuthor
#90
Well, the guessing game is over....while thumbing through Friday's Wall Street Journal, I came across this full-page ad on C5:

It's A Great Time to Buy or Sell A Home.

So I guess there's nothing more to see here folks, move along.
"Irrational exuberance" all over again?:D
flyforfun avatar
Beach Fanatic
#91
Uhm, how did your wife let you post nekkid without an avatar? :funn:
I am not going to Amore's with you anymore. :lol:

Alright Mango, how do you like my avator? Please, do not mistake it to be the control panel of my airplane. Nope, it's much more sophisticated machine than that. It is a Beachbummet silencer. All I have to do is place her in this machine, and she forgets how to talk....well at least until it runs out of gas or I try to do some of those tricks I see on TV where the pilots fly upside down. Something about flying any way other than straight and level makes her say new and interesting words. It's like she gets excited or something. :rolling: Anyway, ever man needs one of these machines:floor:
flyforfun avatar
Beach Fanatic
#92
As long as flyforfun doesn't use any of my former avatars.

Are you kidding? No way, that poor little white sheep looked like it was being totured. I am surprised Pita has not started picketing your home in AZ. Oh by the way, we found evidence that some of the Alliens from AZ have found your new home in WS. They left evidence that is even more sophisticated than the typical crop circles you see in your neck of the woods. Once the military and police release them back to us, we will post them for everyone's review. :cool:
Ohio Girl avatar
Beach Lover
#93
The NAR is very good at spinning the issues.
flyforfun avatar
Beach Fanatic
#94
In President Reagan?s second term he correctly realized that federal deficits were growing too large and he had to do some fine tuning to the tax code. This was a responsible action by President Reagan but it resulted in a change in real estate depreciation rates and the resultant real estate condo crash in the mid to late 1980?s. This action was not initiated by the Democrats as you suggest.

You are also incorrect that the 1997 the Capital Gains tax cut signed by President Clinton only reduced Capital gains tax to 30%. This 1997 act included a reduction in capital gains tax to 20%, not 30% as you indicate. This act also exempted profits up to $500k for the sale of your home.

The 1997 tax cut signed by President Clinton also targeted a greater cross section of Americans that the 2003 Republican tax cut.

http://www.filetax.com/97taxact.html

The 2003 Republican tax cut was crafted primarily for the most affluent.
The below article regarding the Republican 2003 tax cut accurately predicted the resultant over speculation and the negative consequences which we are experiencing today.


The great bait and switch
Commentary: GOP pulls a fast one with capital-gains tax cut
By Chris Pummer, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:42 AM ET May 22, 2003
excerpts
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -
?... the Republican-controlled House pulled an astounding bait-and-switch on the American public..... Average Americans may pay dearly for the party's legislative slight of hand.

Forget that there are no unbiased studies to prove capital-gains tax cuts stimulate the economy. Forget also that two of the largest such cuts in history contributed to the rampant speculation that preceded the 1929 and 2000 stock market crashes...

..said David Levine, an economics professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. "The main effect of a capital-gains tax cut is to increase federal budget deficits in the future and make those already prosperous more prosperous.".........

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...DB36-79CD-4270-B0C9-4E07332796D4}&siteid=mktw

Alright Ecopal, you are right it was 20% capital gain and I did forget the tax breaks on homes under $500K. Sorry I had a brain crack. :bang: Is it the reduction of capital gains from 20% to 15% what has your panties pull up to your shoulders or is it that the demo's gave the tax breaks for the wealthy? :idontno: Again, I just can't find the wealthy tax breaks that no one else is allowed to participate in. :confused:
flyforfun avatar
Beach Fanatic
#95
"Irrational exuberance" all over again?:D


Blue, this fishing stick man picture is so cool!:rolling:
Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#96
Not to bring this thread off course or anything but I am seeing alot of positive activity in the market. I am working on several contracts and have some big deals in the pipeline. This past weekend I had more calls then I have had in months... What up???? I thought the sky was falling? It really seems the market is leveling off. I know not everyone will agree with me but my information is coming from actual calls and written contracts. I still struggle to predict when this market will come back but I really do not feel it is in as bad of shape as the media is making out.
Beach Fanatic
#97
I agree. Things are definitely looking up.:clap_1:
peapod1980 avatar
percy
#98
I wonder if I should buy a house here so that I can escape the kids whenever I want.
Bobby J avatar
Beach Fanatic
#99
I wonder if I should buy a house here so that I can escape the kids whenever I want.

My crystal ball says "Yes"!
Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
#100
Tomorrow.:idontno:
Scooter avatar
Beach Fanatic
#101
November 2007

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