Stick Your Neck Out and Predict

Prediction: July 13, 2008

Fall 07 to Winter (Feb) 08.

Considering the figures I just read in the article linked here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061102/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_21

I say not at least until 2008 - and pray for another mild hurricane season.

Since I have been know to stick things on occasion. I think we are at or near the bottom of the slide. If you look at a 20 year history of property values along 30-A, conservatory most double in value around 5 years. So if you look at 2001 property sales and double them, that is about what properties are selling at the present time. I think you will see the market values begin to climb 2nd-3rd quarter 2007. However what people should be worrying about is this mid term election. Should the Republicans loose both the House and Senate, with huge deficit spending and a need to increase revenue via taxes, we could be facing a repeat of what happened in 1991 that devastated the real estate market across the country. In fact, Sandestin even went bankrupt during that period! I suspect modification of 1031's, a increase of capital gains tax from 15% to 30% and a reversal on other tax incentives that have made others to look more favorably to real estate as an investment. Then again, what do I know....I am friends with Bobby J

flyforfun!!!!!

Since I have been know to stick things on occasion. I think we are at or near the bottom of the slide. If you look at a 20 year history of property values along 30-A, conservatory most double in value around 5 years. So if you look at 2001 property sales and double them, that is about what properties are selling at the present time. I think you will see the market values begin to climb 2nd-3rd quarter 2007. However what people should be worrying about is this mid term election. Should the Republicans loose both the House and Senate, with huge deficit spending and a need to increase revenue via taxes, we could be facing a repeat of what happened in 1991 that devastated the real estate market across the country. In fact, Sandestin even went bankrupt during that period! I suspect modification of 1031's, a increase of capital gains tax from 15% to 30% and a reversal on other tax incentives that have made others to look more favorably to real estate as an investment. Then again, what do I know....I am friends with Bobby J

So let me see if I understand...if the mid-terms go the Democrat's way, the Real estate market here is screwed? Ergo, if you have a vested interest in this market here you better go vote Republican next Tuesday.

Just out of curiosity, what happened to housing prices here between 1992 and 2000?

Since I have been know to stick things on occasion. I think we are at or near the bottom of the slide. If you look at a 20 year history of property values along 30-A, conservatory most double in value around 5 years. So if you look at 2001 property sales and double them, that is about what properties are selling at the present time. I think you will see the market values begin to climb 2nd-3rd quarter 2007. However what people should be worrying about is this mid term election. Should the Republicans loose both the House and Senate, with huge deficit spending and a need to increase revenue via taxes, we could be facing a repeat of what happened in 1991 that devastated the real estate market across the country. In fact, Sandestin even went bankrupt during that period! I suspect modification of 1031's, a increase of capital gains tax from 15% to 30% and a reversal on other tax incentives that have made others to look more favorably to real estate as an investment. Then again, what do I know....I am friends with Bobby J

Yes, a Congress that ran up a huge deficit would be horrible for the economy. Thank god for the Republicans.

Since I have been know to stick things on occasion. I think we are at or near the bottom of the slide. If you look at a 20 year history of property values along 30-A, conservatory most double in value around 5 years. So if you look at 2001 property sales and double them, that is about what properties are selling at the present time. I think you will see the market values begin to climb 2nd-3rd quarter 2007. However what people should be worrying about is this mid term election. Should the Republicans loose both the House and Senate, with huge deficit spending and a need to increase revenue via taxes, we could be facing a repeat of what happened in 1991 that devastated the real estate market across the country. In fact, Sandestin even went bankrupt during that period! I suspect modification of 1031's, a increase of capital gains tax from 15% to 30% and a reversal on other tax incentives that have made others to look more favorably to real estate as an investment. Then again, what do I know....I am friends with Bobby J

I have friends????:roll:

www.fishkind.com. go to the fund index to find the answears.

So let me see if I understand...if the mid-terms go the Democrat's way, the Real estate market here is screwed? Ergo, if you have a vested interest in this market here you better go vote Republican next Tuesday.

Just out of curiosity, what happened to housing prices here between 1992 and 2000?

Well Rap, there was about 15 months were the market went flat, then begain to climb back up until Opal hit in 1995. Again, the market went flat for about 12 months, then began to climb. There was another small hurricane in 1998, that caused the market to go flat for about 8-12 months, and as usual the market began to grow. In my opinion, what really fueled the rapid increase prior to Katrina was low interest rates, reduction in capital gains tax to 15% and 1031's being discovered by more buyers/agents and the stock market collasp after 9/11. Personally, I still would rather have a piece of sand in my pocket, then own a piece of worthless stock any day.

I have friends????:roll:

Hey Bobby J, nice avitar! Never seen you look so good!

....we could be facing a repeat of what happened in 1991 that devastated the real estate market across the country. In fact, Sandestin even went bankrupt during that period!

And they were in the tank again in 2006 (recently!) when they (Intrawest - who owned Sandestin) sold it all to a company - forgot the name - for a staggering $2.1 billion dollars, $1 billion of which went to debt repayment!:shock:

And they were in the tank again in 2006 (recently!) when they (Intrawest - who owned Sandestin) sold it all to a company - forgot the name - for a staggering $2.1 billion dollars, $1 billion of which went to debt repayment!:shock:

Jill, that is news to me, do you have a reference or a web link? Sandestin must have a CEO from Healthsouth or Enron managing in charge of that deal.

Personally, I still would rather have a piece of sand in my pocket, then own a piece of worthless stock any day.

Well...I'll agree with you there. As long as it's not gulf front...Mother Nature has already taken one house away.

I just don't think one party or the other makes a whole lot of difference in the market. Everything ebbs and flows from administration to administration. After about eight years the excesses of either party begins to take it's toll. It seems to me the huge debt that is being run up right now with no sort of fiscal responsibility brings in its own set of issues for investment. I worked in a different industry, but always found that when one party was in control all protection went to employer groups and hospitals, and eventually the squeeze would be so tight on doctors and customers and the next party would come in, fix some problems and create others...then the pendulum would swing the other way.

I just don't trust a lot of the economic numbers coming out right now. And I think that as long as we pretend there is not a problem when everyone can clearly see there are problems, then nothing will get done. Capital gains are hurt as much by an extremely weak dollar as higher taxes, are they not?

... However what people should be worrying about is this mid term election. Should the Republicans loose both the House and Senate, with huge deficit spending and a need to increase revenue via taxes, we could be facing a repeat of what happened in 1991 that devastated the real estate market across the country. In fact, Sandestin even went bankrupt during that period! I suspect modification of 1031's, a increase of capital gains tax from 15% to 30% and a reversal on other tax incentives that have made others to look more favorably to real estate as an investment. Then again, what do I know....I am friends with Bobby J

I wouldn?t worry about losing the low capital gains tax rate under the Democrats. Most Democrats voted for the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 which included lowering the capital gains tax rate.

In 1991 the first Bush was President - remember the one that broke his ?no new taxes? promise. So you can?t blame 1991 economic woes on the Democrats.

During President Clinton?s presidency we had budget surpluses. Bush and the Republican Congress have given us record braking deficits and a soaring federal debt.

The big tax breaks the Republicans gave to the wealthiest Americans has actually contributed to the higher national debt and increasing interest rates.

Jill, that is news to me, do you have a reference or a web link? Sandestin must have a CEO from Healthsouth or Enron managing in charge of that deal.

Flyforfun...I read it in the Sun I believe?? Let me see if I can find the info on that. Yes, I was astounded too.

flyforfun...here is a link ... looks like it was $2.8billion!!
http://www.mountainresortmag.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=43&Itemid=1

And they were in the tank again in 2006 (recently!) when they (Intrawest - who owned Sandestin) sold it all to a company - forgot the name - for a staggering $2.1 billion dollars, $1 billion of which went to debt repayment!:shock:

Were you a bondholder in Intrawest?

www.fishkind.com. go to the fund index to find the answears.

Oh heck. Everybody else is breaking the house rules about "minimal commentary"....

Babyblue, I saw these on the website (thanks for reference):

http://www.fishkind.com/radio/072506spot.pdf
"July 25, 2006

Then just one month later he says:

http://www.fishkind.com/radio/090506spot.pdf
"September 5, 2006
....Here in Florida there were a number of positive economic reports. Most importantly it now appears that we have reached the bottom of the cycle for single-family housing. Over the last 90-days closing volumes for new and existing single-family homes have consolidated and are no longer falling."

So, in just one month, his forecast changed from 6 more months of demand slowdown to basically the sales volume now holding level.
:roll:
What did you or anyone else see here?

BMBV...you have given into peer pressure, again. :nono1:

So, in just one month, his forecast changed from 6 more months of demand slowdown to basically the sales volume now holding level.
:roll:
What did you or anyone else see here?

Maybe he's afraid that someone will slip a little something in his "refreshments" when he shows up HERE tonight.

flyforfun...here is a link ... looks like it was $2.8billion!!
http://www.mountainresortmag.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=43&Itemid=1

Geeeish, another corporate owned development.....about the fastest way to screw up a steel ball.

I have friends????:roll:

Of course you have friends. You didn't see me post your Halloween photos on SoWal, did you?

I wouldn?t worry about losing the low capital gains tax rate under the Democrats. Most Democrats voted for the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 which included lowering the capital gains tax rate.

In 1991 the first Bush was President - remember the one that broke his ?no new taxes? promise. So you can?t blame 1991 economic woes on the Democrats.

During President Clinton?s presidency we had budget surpluses. Bush and the Republican Congress have given us record braking deficits and a soaring federal debt.

The big tax breaks the Republicans gave to the wealthiest Americans has actually contributed to the higher national debt and increasing interest rates.

Eco, the 1991 real estate problem's were directly the result of the demo's wanting to teach Bush Sr. a lesson on the "no new taxes" theme. They basically re-wrote the tax code with regards to real estate depreciation schedule. It devasted investors who were in limited partnerships, and all rental property schedules were increased by 30%! During that period you could drive down 30-A and you saw double the number of "for sale" signs that you see today. You could have purchased beach front for $85-100,000.00!

You are correct regarding the 1997 tax relief act, the demo's along with the repo's did reduce capital gains tax to 30%, however it was not until the repo controlled congress took over was it reduced to 15%.

I happen to fall into those so called "tax breaks for the wealthy", and at the next sowal event, I want you to show them to me, cause my account has yet to do the same. And believe me, I ask himevery year around April 15! If you have a buddy who is a real estate agent down there, he/she is probably looking for the same breaks. You may want to give a seminar! You will find the biggest tax breaks have been for those of us who choose to invest in the real estate market, something anyone with a few dollars can still do, even along 30-A.

I wouldn’t worry about losing the low capital gains tax rate under the Democrats. Most Democrats voted for the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 which included lowering the capital gains tax rate.

In 1991 the first Bush was President - remember the one that broke his “no new taxes” promise. So you can’t blame 1991 economic woes on the Democrats.

During President Clinton’s presidency we had budget surpluses. Bush and the Republican Congress have given us record braking deficits and a soaring federal debt.

The big tax breaks the Republicans gave to the wealthiest Americans has actually contributed to the higher national debt and increasing interest rates.

I am no political fan of anyone, but to tell the whole truth -- the press pushers had a field day with the first Pres Bush quoting, "no new taxes," was said after he had already pushed through taxes.

By the way, I believe that surplus of which you speak is Social Security, which shows up as a surplus in the budget.