Tropical Deppression 4

Well, from what I heard on the weather last night if it picked up in speed, moving at least 18 mph or more then there was a good chance that it would be pulled farther north by the upper level low but if it slowed down then it would stay over the Yucatan Peninsula. And it is moving west at 17mph right now which is down from the 18 last night so I hope it keeps slowing down. They are saying it could be affecting Texas Thursday or Friday now if it doesn't fizzle out which doesn't look likely.

Dear Dean,

Go South young man! We don't need your type in Texas.

Sincerely,

Miss Kitty

Dear Dean,

Go South young man! We don't need your type in Texas.

Sincerely,

Miss Kitty

Hopefully Miss Kitty it will stay over Mexico. I just got through looking at a map of Dean and now they are showing the direction as WNW. I want us to be able to come down to the beach this next weekend. The man has not deposited our check for the rental of the place either. Wondering whether he is waiting it out to see what it is going to do or to see what we are going to do that is. They were showing it in the southern part of the Gulf around Wednesday if it goes that direction, now they are showing it around Thursday or Friday instead.

We can all relax-I just heard Dawn Brown on the radio and she feels confident it will continue pretty much on its current route into Texico.

We can all relax-I just heard Dawn Brown on the radio and she feels confident it will continue pretty much on its current route into Texico.

From your mouth to God's ear!

...that is so sad.

So, where is this monster going now. I am afraid to look. A well meaning friend called me to keep my eyes on it because of my daddy in Houston. I know y'all will send sarafunn back if it is time. ;-)

I don't think Dean will make landfall in Mexico after passing Yucatan. Dean appears to be going to the northern edge of the forecast models making Dean a Texas storm. Of course the certainty of this is quite small at this point. When it gets close to Yucatan everybody will have a better idea of Dean's final destination or close proximity that is.


Tropicwatch

I'm certainly hoping that Hurr. Dean doesn't follow the CLP5 track, since currently, it is aiming at P'cola.

I'm certainly hoping that Hurr. Dean doesn't follow the CLP5 track, since currently, it is aiming at P'cola.

Watch the GFDL which is put out by MIT, that one has had the best track record. I don't know why the 1800 run has not come out yet.

Watch the GFDL which is put out by MIT, that one has had the best track record. I don't know why the 1800 run has not come out yet.

My understanding, from reading Dr Jeff Masters' blogs, is that some of the models take much longer to run. I've read a bit about some of the various models' methods of calculation, but I have not seen the CPL5 before. Do you know how it is calculated?

I just found this little scientific description of why some models are late:

"Numerous objective forecast aids (guidance models) are available to help the NHC Hurricane Specialists in the preparation of their official track and intensity forecasts. Guidance models are characterized as either early or late, depending on whether or not they are available to the Hurricane Specialist during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC (12Z) forecast cycle, which begins with the 12Z synoptic time and ends with the release of the official forecast at 15Z. The 12Z run of the NWS/Global Forecast System (GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 16Z, or about an hour after the forecast is released - thus the 12Z GFS would be considered a late model since it could not be used to prepare the 12Z official forecast.

Multi-layer dynamical models are generally, if not always, late models. Fortunately, a technique can be used to take the latest available run of a late model and adjust its forecast to apply to the current synoptic time and initial conditions. In the example above, forecast data for hours 6-126 from the previous (06Z) run of the GFS would be adjusted, or shifted, so that the 6-h forecast (valid at 12Z) would exactly match the observed 12Z position and intensity of the tropical cyclone. The adjustment process creates an "early" version of the GFS model for the 12Z forecast cycle that is based on the most current available guidance. The adjusted versions of the late models are known, for historical reasons, as interpolated models."


I see that the CPL5 model has historically been way off in terms of forecast area in miles, on average, being the least accurate of the models, with only three exceptions in particular years around the mid-1990's.

CLP5: CLIPER5 (Climatology and Persistence model)-Statistical baseline

Found the information at http://www.ofcm.gov/p36-isrtc/pdf/10_appendices.pdf has great info pertaining to various models and more.

Alright take it from a surfer, here is the best website radar picture in town. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html View attachment 6153

Opps I forgot the best swell model on the net. Funny part is they are out of England.http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

I think you reposted the same link, rather than the swell link. :roll:

Opps! Let's try this again http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/

Opps! Let's try this again http://magicseaweed.com/Gulf-Coast-MSW-Surf-Charts/9/

I like www.wetsand.com as well. Those two should dial you in just right. Green room, what do you think???? East winds.... PC (secret spot that everyone knows) or had further East. Tuesday should be the day so far.... Let me know where you are going and maybe we can hook up.

http://www.wetsand.com/swellwatch/s...&tabid=1441&subtabid=0&CatId=301&SubCatID=301

Click on the day and it will show the swell.

Dear Dean,

Go South young man! We don't need your type in Texas.

Sincerely,

Miss Kitty

you won't do,Miss Kitty. Hoping Dean will just sent some rain our way and to our neighbors in Bama.

Has anyone noticed or heard anything about ANOTHER system (tropical wave) that is forming just north of the Yucatan ?

That is the only thing I see at the present and it's off of Africa

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm4/gulfofmexicosatellite_large.html
I saw it on a map somewhere else while looking for a better webcam and it was marked as a tropical wave.
If this thing starts to develop more it could have a big impact on the track of Dean but I havent heard anything about it anywhere else.

I saw that as well, but I can't find any forums and/or discussions that seem concerned. The only one their talking about besides Dean is the new formation off Africa....

You can see a little something on this infrared radar map.

check out this interactive floating map, tracking Hurr Dean...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

You can check boxes of what you want to see, like wind speeds, temp, winds gusts, etc.

Here is a link, showing what you guys are calling a tropical wave. Give it a moment to upload, then you can see it in motion. This map is also interactive. Look for the boxes at the top of the map.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html