Bad weather in early Oct

Most of the models show this happening. At the present, the models are targeting a landfall around Tampa, which of course "never" happens because of the Tampa Dome.

Keep your eyes open, hurricane supplies ready and generators full.....could be an interesting October....

Haven't we decided that site is whacked?

http://www.sowal.com/bb/weather/50405-hurricane-fiona.html

Please stop scaring people. When it starts raining, let us know.

http://www.sowal.com/bb/weather/50147-ecmwf-big-storm-atlantic-later-month.html

This I do know - trying to predict the weather in Florida more than a couple of days out is a fool's game.

Haven't we decided that site is whacked?

Yes, but significantly less so than any other weather site out there (Not that that is saying much.)

They nailed the non-event that was Bonnie when everyone else had them evacuating oil rigs off of the coast of La.

Haven't we decided that site is whacked?

http://www.sowal.com/bb/weather/50405-hurricane-fiona.html

Please stop scaring people. When it starts raining, let us know.

http://www.sowal.com/bb/weather/50147-ecmwf-big-storm-atlantic-later-month.html

This I do know - trying to predict the weather in Florida more than a couple of days out is a fool's game.

Well, I guess there are a lot of "fools" out there, because all of the expert meterologists including the NHC are all saying that the forecast for early October matches very well with the modeling.......

No one is "scaring people" Kurt, just providing information for those that desire. Perhaps if you or other are scared, just don't open the site....:roll:

and here I sit....waiting.....waiting.....waiting....for the CAT 5 that will bring jobs for many. Bring it on! Yeah, I know, we'll lose our "stuff", but it'll be worth it....no more upside-down mortgages; no more "haves" and "have nots". Just remember to LEAVE....at least outside "the cone" (preferrably in the opposite direction of where the potential 'cane will head next). For those who wish to have a hurricane party instead, well, we just call that the "thinning of the herd".

Signed,

Hurricane Andrew Survivor

Selfish of me to read this and feel a little deflated about my trip there for 10 days the first part of October. Are y'all talking hurricane?

What if it messes with the Seaside Yard Sale?!!!!

Well, I guess there are a lot of "fools" out there, because all of the expert meterologists including the NHC are all saying that the forecast for early October matches very well with the modeling.......

No one is "scaring people" Kurt, just providing information for those that desire. Perhaps if you or other are scared, just don't open the site....:roll:

Traditionally October is one of the best months of the year here for weather. Sure, there is always the threat of a hurricane but I don't think any weather forecaster has any better idea what will happen next month than they do what will happen next year, but just trying to get attention. Weather reporting has become a competition like scaremonger news outlets.

It's like starting a thread that says, "Bad traffic accidents in October." Or more to the point, "Bad weather in 2011." Might happen, might not.

I don't EVEN want to see anything about bad weather- Seaside yard Sale and Rosemary Beach Sidewalk Sale Oct 2 weekend, then Rosemary Beach Weekend of Giving and PATSY the Oct. 8-9 weekend. The rain better stay away!

It's pretty early to call it, but this non-system does in fact have many forecasters' attention ... from this morning's www.crownweather.com tropical discussion:

Now to talk about the system that may get all of the headlines over the next 7 to 10 days and beyond. I am closely monitoring a tropical disturbance that is located over the Windward Islands this morning. This system has been bringing squally weather to these areas and this squally weather will continue today. This disturbance is forecast to track westward over the next few days and I think it stands a good chance of developing into Tropical Storm Matthew by the end of this week or at the very latest this weekend when it is located in the western Caribbean.

The global forecast models continue to differ wildly on how this system will develop and where it will eventually track. The latest GFS model forecasts a track that first takes it into Central America this weekend and then forecasts it to turn northeastward early next week and eventually track over Cuba and the Bahamas missing Florida. I?m pretty skeptical with this type of track as this is the type of track you see in late October. I think the GFS model may be overdoing the strength of the trough and I think in the end you will see a track further west due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. Also, there is a couple of other reasons to find the GFS model suspect, the first is that the energy associated with this system is currently located around 11 North Latitude and will stay at about that latitude over the next few days. The second is that the model consensus moves the trough of low pressure over the eastern United States to near 80 West Longitude by early next week which is either due north or slightly northwest of the western Caribbean disturbance which would cause a northward track. Where the disturbance develops exactly in the Caribbean highly dictates where it?ll go, but I favor a more northward or northwestward track rather than the northeast track forecast by the GFS model.

Looking at the other model guidance, the Canadian model forecasts development of this system in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts it to track into Central America this weekend and then slowly meander its way up to the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week. Ultimately, the Canadian model pulls this system northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and forecasts it to be located in the central Gulf of Mexico by next Thursday.

The European model is forecasting development in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts this system to turn northwestward missing Central America this weekend. By next week, the European model forecasts this system to slow way down in the northwestern Caribbean during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before being pulled northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday. Looking at the upper air pattern for 10 days out forecast by the European model, it shows a track that would put the west coast of Florida at risk from this system.

Now, what should we take away from this?? As of this morning, we are already seeing convection increasing across the Windward Islands and I think you will see slow development until it gets west of 75 West Longitude late this week. The model guidance as a whole now are trending towards faster development late this week in the southwestern Caribbean and I have every reason to believe this given the favorable environmental conditions and very warm ocean waters. At some point, this system will be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico given the overall weather pattern and I think you will see this happen around the middle part of next week. In addition, based on the overall pattern, areas from New Orleans and points east should be most concerned with this system due to the weakness forecast over the eastern United States.

I realize that this system will be causing a lot of concern over the coming days. I want you to come away from this discussion informed, but not alarmed. We are talking about a system that hasn?t even formed yet. So, for now, we should just monitor this potential system closely and look for model trends and consistency in the model guidance. Once this system develops into a tropical cyclone, we should be able to get a much better idea on where it may track. So, for now, it is best to be informed and prepared and I will be keeping you all updated on the latest regarding this potential system.

Selfish of me to read this and feel a little deflated about my trip there for 10 days the first part of October. Are y'all talking hurricane?

Middlesister: I wouldn't be concerned at the present about a Hurricane coming here. The models are showing that the GOM is ripe for intensified activity in early October and several are showing a development of a major (cat3) hurricane developing. Currently, their projected tracking is for South/Central Florida at the present.

Translated: Good/Moderate chance of the GOM having a significant storm in early October. Where.....unknown, but statistical models from previous hx doesn't show the Panhandle as probable....

Stating that, it is the hurricane season and we all need to keep vigilant and pay attention to the forecast and have a plan in place....just in case.

This is from wunderground for Lisa. I am confused as to all of the conflicting info.
I sure hope Invest 95 brings much needed rain to Georgia, however.

Traditionally October is one of the best months of the year here for weather. Sure, there is always the threat of a hurricane but I don't think any weather forecaster has any better idea what will happen next month than they do what will happen next year, but just trying to get attention. Weather reporting has become a competition like scaremonger news outlets.

It's like starting a thread that says, "Bad traffic accidents in October." Or more to the point, "Bad weather in 2011." Might happen, might not.

While October is normally an amazing month for weather in the Panhandle, it DOES have a history of producing some pretty nasty weather.

Since 1985 there have been 2 Major Hurricanes and 3 TS hit the Cola-Cola area after October 1st. That is an avg of 1 TS/TD/Cane every 5 years in the region during the past 25 years. Interestingly, the region avgs a TS/Cane every 3.5 years during the entire season.

Some may remember one named Opal that hit the area 10/4/95

Bottom Line is not to "scare" folks but to remind them not to be complacent either.....

I don't EVEN want to see anything about bad weather- Seaside yard Sale and Rosemary Beach Sidewalk Sale Oct 2 weekend, then Rosemary Beach Weekend of Giving and PATSY the Oct. 8-9 weekend. The rain better stay away!

Not to worry.....
the only big wind you can count on blowing in that weekend is.....
ME!

Not to worry.....
the only big wind you can count on blowing in that weekend is.....
ME!

Hurricanes don't stand a chance against you! Miss Kitty- the original force of nature.

Woo-hoo! Kitty in da house! :dothewave:

I would give more credence to these predictions if you guys didn't still have egg on your faces from the last "big storm" from the "site that knows it all". Glorious sunny days instead of the forecasted Armageddon. :roll:

Selfish of me to read this and feel a little deflated about my trip there for 10 days the first part of October. Are y'all talking hurricane?

I'll be there in early October as well. At this point, I am choosing to ignore these forecasts. No point in worry about something you have no control over. I have visited the last 6 years or so in October and the weather has been glorious!

I'll be there in early October as well. At this point, I am choosing to ignore these forecasts. No point in worry about something you have no control over. I have visited the last 6 years or so in October and the weather has been glorious!

October is still hot enough for the beach, and a really perfect time of year. You are here twice a year right?

Not to worry.....
the only big wind you can count on blowing in that weekend is.....
ME!

You two blowing into town in October is good news. Let's do lunch and talk about everything under the sun except the weather.... Weather is as weather does. I am always weather-uninformed (I let each day be a surprise) and if I need to be informed, I have a girlfriend who thinks she is the weather lady and she gives me a personal alert.

October is still hot enough for the beach, and a really perfect time of year. You are here twice a year right?



You two blowing into town in October is good news. Let's do lunch and talk about everything under the sun except the weather.... Weather is as weather does. I am always weather-uninformed (I let each day be a surprise) and if I need to be informed, I have a girlfriend who thinks she is the weather lady and she gives me a personal alert.

Yes, I am usually there April & October. October weather is usually better. Let me know if the wenches do lunch. I will have a car this year so I could meet you anywhere. I am there 10/6 through 10/11.

These are hardly "forecasts". "Five serious storms in October from 'Cola to 'Cola since 1985..." : I'm shakin' in my boots just thinkin' about it. Come on guys... when you see the cone of uncertainty entering the Gulf, then maybe it's time to think about this subject. Until then, I'm on "Island Time".

These are hardly "forecasts". "Five serious storms in October from 'Cola to 'Cola since 1985..." : I'm shakin' in my boots just thinkin' about it. Come on guys... when you see the cone of uncertainty entering the Gulf, then maybe it's time to think about this subject. Until then, I'm on "Island Time".

exactly...

show me the cone!
even when the cone is evident, we just sit back and watch. maybe go get some extra wine.

Lake View Too: I like your way of thinking. Thanks!

Katrina survivor.

Thanks for the info, the earlier the better. Was a block off the beach in Gulfport for Katrina, going on vacation.

It's pretty early to call it, but this non-system does in fact have many forecasters' attention ... from this morning's www.crownweather.com tropical discussion:

Now to talk about the system that may get all of the headlines over the next 7 to 10 days and beyond. I am closely monitoring a tropical disturbance that is located over the Windward Islands this morning. This system has been bringing squally weather to these areas and this squally weather will continue today. This disturbance is forecast to track westward over the next few days and I think it stands a good chance of developing into Tropical Storm Matthew by the end of this week or at the very latest this weekend when it is located in the western Caribbean.

The global forecast models continue to differ wildly on how this system will develop and where it will eventually track. The latest GFS model forecasts a track that first takes it into Central America this weekend and then forecasts it to turn northeastward early next week and eventually track over Cuba and the Bahamas missing Florida. I?m pretty skeptical with this type of track as this is the type of track you see in late October. I think the GFS model may be overdoing the strength of the trough and I think in the end you will see a track further west due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. Also, there is a couple of other reasons to find the GFS model suspect, the first is that the energy associated with this system is currently located around 11 North Latitude and will stay at about that latitude over the next few days. The second is that the model consensus moves the trough of low pressure over the eastern United States to near 80 West Longitude by early next week which is either due north or slightly northwest of the western Caribbean disturbance which would cause a northward track. Where the disturbance develops exactly in the Caribbean highly dictates where it?ll go, but I favor a more northward or northwestward track rather than the northeast track forecast by the GFS model.

Looking at the other model guidance, the Canadian model forecasts development of this system in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts it to track into Central America this weekend and then slowly meander its way up to the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week. Ultimately, the Canadian model pulls this system northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and forecasts it to be located in the central Gulf of Mexico by next Thursday.

The European model is forecasting development in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts this system to turn northwestward missing Central America this weekend. By next week, the European model forecasts this system to slow way down in the northwestern Caribbean during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before being pulled northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday. Looking at the upper air pattern for 10 days out forecast by the European model, it shows a track that would put the west coast of Florida at risk from this system.

Now, what should we take away from this?? As of this morning, we are already seeing convection increasing across the Windward Islands and I think you will see slow development until it gets west of 75 West Longitude late this week. The model guidance as a whole now are trending towards faster development late this week in the southwestern Caribbean and I have every reason to believe this given the favorable environmental conditions and very warm ocean waters. At some point, this system will be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico given the overall weather pattern and I think you will see this happen around the middle part of next week. In addition, based on the overall pattern, areas from New Orleans and points east should be most concerned with this system due to the weakness forecast over the eastern United States.

I realize that this system will be causing a lot of concern over the coming days. I want you to come away from this discussion informed, but not alarmed. We are talking about a system that hasn?t even formed yet. So, for now, we should just monitor this potential system closely and look for model trends and consistency in the model guidance. Once this system develops into a tropical cyclone, we should be able to get a much better idea on where it may track. So, for now, it is best to be informed and prepared and I will be keeping you all updated on the latest regarding this potential system.

Katrina was predicted to make landfall at Seagrove Beach at one point.

That was an actual formed storm w/ a cone of doom and they couldn't predict it correctly 5 days out, so I wouldn't change plans based on this computer model (which has already been completely wrong this summer BTW).

Katrina was predicted to make landfall at Seagrove Beach at one point.

That was an actual formed storm w/ a cone of doom and they couldn't predict it correctly 5 days out, so I wouldn't change plans based on this computer model (which has already been completely wrong this summer BTW).

How well I remember! I was on the way down for a birthday celebration that weekend with a girfriend. We seriously almost went to New Orleans instead. :shock:

Thank goodness, we didn't! We ended up in Destin, had a great time, and found a new way back home thru Alabama. I remember having trouble with finding gas stations open, but no other problems. Pretty scary in retrospect.