Bad weather in early Oct

Tropical Weather : Weather Underground

An update from Dr Masters about TD15, probably soon to be Tropical Storm Matthew, in the Caribbean.

Please stop scaring people. When it starts raining, let us know.

Not trying to scare anyone, Kurt. Also not trying to discourage any tourists, who can always pack up and head for home. But, imho, if you live in Florida you ought to be prepared for a hurricane. Before a storm shows up is the prudent time to check your supplies, plan, etc. Anyone who was here for Opal knows not to ignore the Caribbean this time of the year.

Yes, but that's the Yucatan peninsula. :roll: Todos vivimos en Sowal!

Noone is saying ignore the Caribbean and be unprepared for hurricane season - just that maybe we wait for an actual storm with a projected path somewhere near us before we tell the tourists to make other plans.

I have a hurricane plan - just like to wait for one to actually be on the way before I implement it - especially since it only takes me 4 hours to go from 0 to RUN FOR YOUR LIFE. ;-)

How well I remember! I was on the way down for a birthday celebration that weekend with a girfriend. We seriously almost went to New Orleans instead. :shock:

Thank goodness, we didn't! We ended up in Destin, had a great time, and found a new way back home thru Alabama. I remember having trouble with finding gas stations open, but no other problems. Pretty scary in retrospect.

I was hurricane weary by the time Katrina came along that year! :shock:

The models are now seeming to agree that Matthew is going to get shredded by the mountains in central America, but after that things start to get wonky. What's starting to look likely is that the remnants of Matt get kicked back out into the Caribbean Sea, and then reform a storm that goes the Cuba-South Florida pathway.

If this was late August instead of late September, I'd be far more worried about the new storm getting pulled northward sooner, but climatology says we're hitting the time of the year when the doors to the northern Gulf start to get closed and the storms go pretty far east before they go north.

Looks like Lisa dissipated? That's groovy!

And the NHC has now begun writing advisories on TD 16 located in the NW Caribbean Sea, just like the models have been sniffing out. Nothing to be concerned about here, though other areas look to get a bit damp.


Tropical Depression SIXTEEN Forecast/Advisory

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES FROM MANTANZAS EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI... ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE AND FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.