award winning weatherman J.Spann from ABC Birmngham:
KAREN??? The disturbance in the Caribbean looks better organized this morning with a central dense overcast and some banding features. A long wave upper trough over the middle of North America will pull this north, up into the Gulf of Mexico within 24 hours, and most models bring this up to Tropical Storm Karen by Friday. The track, structure, and intensity of this will determine the amount of rain across the Southeast U.S. this weekend.
Understand the forecast confidence will remain low until a firm low level center develops, and the models can become better initialized.
TRACK: There is model spread showing landfall all the way from Morgan City, Louisiana, almost to near Cedar Key, Florida. But, the tightest cluster is around Gulf Shores and Pensacola, with a track up toward Montgomery and Atlanta. Remember, the heaviest rain is usually on the east side of the circulation center, so this idea would keep the heaviest rain south and east of cities like Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. But again, it is simply too early to forecast a specific track until we get an organized system.
INTENSITY: The good news is that all models keep this under hurricane strength. But, there is a good chance it will be a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The main threat will come from heavy rain, possibly some flooding, and rough surf.
TIMING: The GFDL brings the tropical system into the Alabama coast Friday night, while the GFS is slower, with a landfall at some point Saturday afternoon. I get the idea the best window for a landfall will be from about midnight Friday night through noon Saturday.
Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
KAREN??? The disturbance in the Caribbean looks better organized this morning with a central dense overcast and some banding features. A long wave upper trough over the middle of North America will pull this north, up into the Gulf of Mexico within 24 hours, and most models bring this up to Tropical Storm Karen by Friday. The track, structure, and intensity of this will determine the amount of rain across the Southeast U.S. this weekend.
Understand the forecast confidence will remain low until a firm low level center develops, and the models can become better initialized.
TRACK: There is model spread showing landfall all the way from Morgan City, Louisiana, almost to near Cedar Key, Florida. But, the tightest cluster is around Gulf Shores and Pensacola, with a track up toward Montgomery and Atlanta. Remember, the heaviest rain is usually on the east side of the circulation center, so this idea would keep the heaviest rain south and east of cities like Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. But again, it is simply too early to forecast a specific track until we get an organized system.
INTENSITY: The good news is that all models keep this under hurricane strength. But, there is a good chance it will be a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The main threat will come from heavy rain, possibly some flooding, and rough surf.
TIMING: The GFDL brings the tropical system into the Alabama coast Friday night, while the GFS is slower, with a landfall at some point Saturday afternoon. I get the idea the best window for a landfall will be from about midnight Friday night through noon Saturday.
Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
